Calculate the expected value for your baccarat session. Enter your bet size, betting choice, and session length to see your mathematical expectation and probability of profit.
Expected Value
-$85
-$21/hour
Total Wagered
$8,000
Prob of Profit
57.7%
EV Per Hand
-$0
House edge: 1.06%
Typical: 70-90
Best Case (95%)
+$784
Expected
-$85
Worst Case (95%)
-$954
| Bet | Edge | EV/Hand | Session EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 1.06% | -$0 | -$85 |
| Player | 1.24% | -$0 | -$99 |
| Tie | 14.36% | -$4 | -$1,149 |
* All calculations based on 320 hands at $25 per hand
A $25 Banker bet has an EV of -$0.27 per hand (1.06% edge). Over a 4-hour session at 80 hands/hour (320 hands), expect to lose $84.8 with total wagering of $8000. Player bet EV is -$0.31 per hand (1.24% edge).
Expected Value (EV) is the mathematical average outcome over many repetitions. In baccarat, EV is always negative because of the house edge. However, short-term results can vary dramatically due to variance - you might win or lose significantly more than the EV predicts in any given session.
Baccarat has relatively high variance because each bet is essentially a coin flip (with slightly worse odds). The standard deviation for a session is typically 15-25% of total wagered, meaning your actual results can differ substantially from the expected value.
EV (Expected Value) = Bet Amount × (-House Edge). For a $50 Banker bet: EV = $50 × -1.06% = -$0.53. This means you lose 53 cents on average per $50 bet. Over 100 hands, expect to lose $53.
At 80 hands/hour with $25 bets on Banker: EV/hour = 80 × $25 × 1.06% = -$21.20. For Player bets: 80 × $25 × 1.24% = -$24.80. Choose Banker to minimize hourly loss.
Baccarat has high variance because each bet wins or loses the full amount. While EV predicts average loss, actual sessions can vary wildly. You might win $500 or lose $500 in a session with $50 expected loss. Variance decreases as you play more hands.
Rule of thumb: 30-50 bet units for a 4-hour session. At $25/hand for 320 hands: expect $85 loss ± $400 standard deviation. Bring $750-1,250 to comfortably handle normal variance.
Number of decks has minimal impact on baccarat EV. 8-deck games have essentially the same edge as 6-deck or 1-deck games. Unlike blackjack, deck penetration and counting provide negligible advantage in baccarat.
Quick-start with common scenarios
Expected Value
-$85
-$21/hour
Total Wagered
$8,000
Prob of Profit
57.7%
EV Per Hand
-$0
House edge: 1.06%