Baccarat EV Calculator

Calculate the expected value for your baccarat session. Enter your bet size, betting choice, and session length to see your mathematical expectation and probability of profit.

Formula:EV = Hands × Bet × (-House Edge)

Expected Value

-$85

-$21/hour

Total Wagered

$8,000

Prob of Profit

57.7%

EV Per Hand

-$0

House edge: 1.06%

Session Setup

$

Typical: 70-90

Session Breakdown

Total Hands320
Expected Wins147
Expected Losses143
Expected Ties30
Total Wagered$8,000
House Edge1.06%
Expected Value-$85

Variance Analysis

Best Case (95%)

+$784

Expected

-$85

Worst Case (95%)

-$954

Standard Deviation$435
68% Range-$519 to $350
95% Range-$954 to $784
Probability of Profit57.7%

Bet Type Comparison

BetEdgeEV/HandSession EV
Banker1.06%-$0-$85
Player1.24%-$0-$99
Tie14.36%-$4-$1,149

* All calculations based on 320 hands at $25 per hand

Quick Answer

A $25 Banker bet has an EV of -$0.27 per hand (1.06% edge). Over a 4-hour session at 80 hands/hour (320 hands), expect to lose $84.8 with total wagering of $8000. Player bet EV is -$0.31 per hand (1.24% edge).

Key Facts

  • Banker EV per hand: -1.06% × Bet = -$0.11 per $10
  • Player EV per hand: -1.24% × Bet = -$0.12 per $10
  • Tie EV per hand: -14.36% × Bet = -$1.44 per $10
  • Typical pace: 70-90 hands per hour
  • Session EV = Hands × Bet × House Edge
  • High variance means actual results often differ significantly from EV

Understanding Expected Value

Expected Value (EV) is the mathematical average outcome over many repetitions. In baccarat, EV is always negative because of the house edge. However, short-term results can vary dramatically due to variance - you might win or lose significantly more than the EV predicts in any given session.

Variance in Baccarat

Baccarat has relatively high variance because each bet is essentially a coin flip (with slightly worse odds). The standard deviation for a session is typically 15-25% of total wagered, meaning your actual results can differ substantially from the expected value.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I calculate EV in baccarat?

EV (Expected Value) = Bet Amount × (-House Edge). For a $50 Banker bet: EV = $50 × -1.06% = -$0.53. This means you lose 53 cents on average per $50 bet. Over 100 hands, expect to lose $53.

What is the EV per hour playing baccarat?

At 80 hands/hour with $25 bets on Banker: EV/hour = 80 × $25 × 1.06% = -$21.20. For Player bets: 80 × $25 × 1.24% = -$24.80. Choose Banker to minimize hourly loss.

Why does high variance matter in baccarat?

Baccarat has high variance because each bet wins or loses the full amount. While EV predicts average loss, actual sessions can vary wildly. You might win $500 or lose $500 in a session with $50 expected loss. Variance decreases as you play more hands.

How much bankroll do I need for a baccarat session?

Rule of thumb: 30-50 bet units for a 4-hour session. At $25/hand for 320 hands: expect $85 loss ± $400 standard deviation. Bring $750-1,250 to comfortably handle normal variance.

Does the number of decks affect EV?

Number of decks has minimal impact on baccarat EV. 8-deck games have essentially the same edge as 6-deck or 1-deck games. Unlike blackjack, deck penetration and counting provide negligible advantage in baccarat.