Baccarat EV Calculator
Calculate the expected value for your baccarat session. Enter your bet size, betting choice, and session length to see your mathematical expectation and probability of profit.
Formula:EV = Hands × Bet × (-House Edge)
Expected Value
-$85
-$21/hour
Total Wagered
$8,000
Prob of Profit
57.7%
EV Per Hand
-$0
House edge: 1.06%
Session Setup
$
Typical: 70-90
Session Breakdown
Total Hands320
Expected Wins147
Expected Losses143
Expected Ties30
Total Wagered$8,000
House Edge1.06%
Expected Value-$85
Variance Analysis
Best Case (95%)
+$784
Expected
-$85
Worst Case (95%)
-$954
Standard Deviation$435
68% Range-$519 to $350
95% Range-$954 to $784
Probability of Profit57.7%
Bet Type Comparison
| Bet | Edge | EV/Hand | Session EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 1.06% | -$0 | -$85 |
| Player | 1.24% | -$0 | -$99 |
| Tie | 14.36% | -$4 | -$1,149 |
* All calculations based on 320 hands at $25 per hand
Quick Answer
A $25 Banker bet has an EV of -$0.27 per hand (1.06% edge). Over a 4-hour session at 80 hands/hour (320 hands), expect to lose $84.8 with total wagering of $8000. Player bet EV is -$0.31 per hand (1.24% edge).
Key Facts
- Banker EV per hand: -1.06% × Bet = -$0.11 per $10
- Player EV per hand: -1.24% × Bet = -$0.12 per $10
- Tie EV per hand: -14.36% × Bet = -$1.44 per $10
- Typical pace: 70-90 hands per hour
- Session EV = Hands × Bet × House Edge
- High variance means actual results often differ significantly from EV
Understanding Expected Value
Expected Value (EV) is the mathematical average outcome over many repetitions. In baccarat, EV is always negative because of the house edge. However, short-term results can vary dramatically due to variance - you might win or lose significantly more than the EV predicts in any given session.
Variance in Baccarat
Baccarat has relatively high variance because each bet is essentially a coin flip (with slightly worse odds). The standard deviation for a session is typically 15-25% of total wagered, meaning your actual results can differ substantially from the expected value.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I calculate EV in baccarat?
EV (Expected Value) = Bet Amount × (-House Edge). For a $50 Banker bet: EV = $50 × -1.06% = -$0.53. This means you lose 53 cents on average per $50 bet. Over 100 hands, expect to lose $53.
What is the EV per hour playing baccarat?
At 80 hands/hour with $25 bets on Banker: EV/hour = 80 × $25 × 1.06% = -$21.20. For Player bets: 80 × $25 × 1.24% = -$24.80. Choose Banker to minimize hourly loss.
Why does high variance matter in baccarat?
Baccarat has high variance because each bet wins or loses the full amount. While EV predicts average loss, actual sessions can vary wildly. You might win $500 or lose $500 in a session with $50 expected loss. Variance decreases as you play more hands.
How much bankroll do I need for a baccarat session?
Rule of thumb: 30-50 bet units for a 4-hour session. At $25/hand for 320 hands: expect $85 loss ± $400 standard deviation. Bring $750-1,250 to comfortably handle normal variance.
Does the number of decks affect EV?
Number of decks has minimal impact on baccarat EV. 8-deck games have essentially the same edge as 6-deck or 1-deck games. Unlike blackjack, deck penetration and counting provide negligible advantage in baccarat.
Try These Examples
Quick-start with common scenarios
How this works
Calculations follow the published mathematics of the game — combinatorics for cards, probability theory for dice, and expected-value accounting for wagers. Results are verified against independent references (primarily Wizard of Odds). No calculation here is an opinion or recommendation; it is arithmetic applied to the rules of the game.
What this tool can’t do
When to consult a professional
This tool computes probability and expected value. It is not a betting system and cannot predict the outcome of any individual wager. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources
- [1]Wizard of Odds — Michael Shackleford, ASAIndustrywizardofodds.comAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Actuary; widely cited casino-game probability reference. Used for house-edge and EV verification.
- [2]National Council on Problem GamblingOfficial sourcencpgambling.orgAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Responsible-gambling guidance and 1-800-GAMBLER helpline.
Joseph OrdunaFounder & Software Engineer
Full-stack software engineer specializing in embedded systems, web architecture, and AI/ML. Founder of Practical Web Tools. Built the gesture-controlled drone IP acquired by KD Interactive (Aura Drone, sold on Amazon).
Expected Value
-$85
-$21/hour
Total Wagered
$8,000
Prob of Profit
57.7%
EV Per Hand
-$0
House edge: 1.06%