Calculate Independent Chip Model equity for tournament poker. Convert chip stacks to real dollar equity based on payout structure.
Chip stack
First place prize
Chip stack
Second place prize
0 if heads-up
0 if heads-up
Total Prize Pool
$1,000
Total Chips
100,000
Players
3
| Player | Stack | Chip % | Chip Equity | ICM Equity | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 1 | 50,000 | 50.0% | $500 | $384 | -$116 |
| Player 2 | 30,000 | 30.0% | $300 | $328 | +$28 |
| Player 3 | 20,000 | 20.0% | $200 | $289 | +$89 |
The chip leader's ICM equity ($384) is $116 less than their chip proportion would suggest ($500). This demonstrates the diminishing value of chips - doubling your stack doesn't double your equity.
Quick-start with common scenarios
ICM (Independent Chip Model) converts tournament chip stacks to actual dollar equity based on payout structure. A player with 50% of chips doesn't have 50% of the prize pool - they have less due to diminishing returns. For example, in a $1000 prize pool with 3 players at 50K/30K/20K chips, the chip leader's equity is roughly $450, not $500.
ICM uses the Malmuth-Harville model to calculate finishing probabilities. Each player's probability of finishing in each position is calculated based on their chip proportion, then multiplied by the corresponding payout.
The key insight is that chips have diminishing returns. Winning all the chips only gets you first place money, not the entire prize pool. This is why the chip leader's equity is always less than their chip proportion of the prize pool.
ICM is used for deal-making at final tables, calculating when to call or fold based on tournament equity rather than chip equity, and understanding bubble dynamics where survival value is high.
ICM (Independent Chip Model) converts tournament chip stacks to real money equity. With a $1,000 prize pool split 50/30/20, a player with 50% of chips doesn't have $500 equity - ICM calculates it's closer to $420-450 because they can't win more than 1st place money.
Chips have diminishing returns. The first chip you win is more valuable than the last. A player with all the chips only wins 1st place, not the entire prize pool. This is why doubling up doesn't double your equity.
ICM matters most at bubbles and pay jumps. Near the money, surviving one more elimination significantly increases your equity. At final tables, large pay jumps between positions (like 2nd vs 1st) create intense ICM pressure.
ICM calculates each player's equity based on stacks and remaining payouts. A fair deal splits the remaining prize pool according to ICM equity, sometimes with a bonus left for the eventual winner to play for.
Not always. ICM assumes all players are equally skilled. If you have a significant skill edge, you can deviate from ICM to maximize your long-term EV. Also, ICM doesn't account for blind pressure or position.