Calculate the expected value of any lottery ticket
EV = (Jackpot × (1-Tax) / Odds) + Other Prizes - CostEnter lottery details to calculate EV
Very Poor Value
Return Rate
26.8%
House Edge
73.2%
Jackpot EV
$0
After-Tax Jackpot
$63,000,000
The jackpot would need to reach $779,203,568 for this ticket to have zero expected value (break even), assuming no other winners.
Quick-start with common scenarios
Lottery EV = (Jackpot × (1 - Tax Rate) / Odds) + (Other Prizes EV) - Ticket Cost. For a $100M Powerball: EV ≈ ($100M × 0.63 / 292M) + $0.32 - $2 = -$1.46 per ticket. Most lotteries have -40% to -50% EV, meaning you lose $0.80-$1.00 for every $2 spent on average.
Expected value is the average amount you can expect to win (or lose) per ticket over many purchases. It's calculated by multiplying each prize by its probability and summing the results, then subtracting the ticket cost. A negative EV means you lose money on average.
Lotteries must fund prizes, operations, and state revenue from ticket sales. Typically only 50-60% of revenue goes to prizes. Combined with taxes on winnings, the mathematical return is significantly less than what you pay.
Theoretically, when jackpots get extremely large (Powerball ~$600M+), the EV can turn positive before taxes. However, higher jackpots attract more players, increasing the probability of splitting the prize, which reduces actual EV. Practically, lottery is almost never +EV.
Taxes dramatically reduce EV. Federal withholding is 24%, with a top bracket of 37%. State taxes vary from 0% to 13%+. A $100M jackpot might net only $35-40M after all taxes, cutting the EV component by more than half.
Yes. Non-jackpot prizes (Match 5, Match 4, etc.) add meaningful value. In Powerball, these prizes contribute about $0.32 to the EV per ticket. However, this still doesn't overcome the overall negative EV.