Lottery EV Calculator
Calculate the expected value of any lottery ticket
Formula:
EV = (Jackpot × (1-Tax) / Odds) + Other Prizes - CostLottery Parameters
Enter lottery details to calculate EV
$
$
%
$
Expected Value Analysis
Very Poor Value
Expected Value Per Ticket
-$1
Average loss per ticket
Return Rate
26.8%
House Edge
73.2%
Jackpot EV
$0
After-Tax Jackpot
$63,000,000
Break-Even Analysis
The jackpot would need to reach $779,203,568 for this ticket to have zero expected value (break even), assuming no other winners.
EV Breakdown
Jackpot EV Component:$0
Other Prizes EV:$0
Ticket Cost:-$2
Total Expected Value:-$1
Note: This calculation assumes you're the only winner. Large jackpots attract more players, increasing split probability and reducing actual EV. The true EV is likely even lower than calculated.
Example Scenarios
Quick-start with common scenarios
Quick Answer
Lottery EV = (Jackpot × (1 - Tax Rate) / Odds) + (Other Prizes EV) - Ticket Cost. For a $100M Powerball: EV ≈ ($100M × 0.63 / 292M) + $0.32 - $2 = -$1.46 per ticket. Most lotteries have -40% to -50% EV, meaning you lose $0.80-$1.00 for every $2 spent on average.
Key Facts
- Most lottery tickets have -40% to -50% expected value
- Break-even jackpot for Powerball is ~$600M+ (varies with sales/splits)
- Non-jackpot prizes add about $0.32 to Powerball EV
- Federal tax (24% withholding, 37% top bracket) significantly reduces EV
- State taxes range from 0% (California) to 13%+ (New York City)
- Multiple winners split the jackpot, reducing your EV
- Higher jackpots attract more players, increasing split probability
- Lottery is worse EV than most casino games (slots: -5% to -15%)
FAQ
What is expected value (EV) in lottery?
Expected value is the average amount you can expect to win (or lose) per ticket over many purchases. It's calculated by multiplying each prize by its probability and summing the results, then subtracting the ticket cost. A negative EV means you lose money on average.
Why is lottery EV always negative?
Lotteries must fund prizes, operations, and state revenue from ticket sales. Typically only 50-60% of revenue goes to prizes. Combined with taxes on winnings, the mathematical return is significantly less than what you pay.
When does the lottery become positive EV?
Theoretically, when jackpots get extremely large (Powerball ~$600M+), the EV can turn positive before taxes. However, higher jackpots attract more players, increasing the probability of splitting the prize, which reduces actual EV. Practically, lottery is almost never +EV.
How do taxes affect lottery EV?
Taxes dramatically reduce EV. Federal withholding is 24%, with a top bracket of 37%. State taxes vary from 0% to 13%+. A $100M jackpot might net only $35-40M after all taxes, cutting the EV component by more than half.
Should I consider non-jackpot prizes in EV?
Yes. Non-jackpot prizes (Match 5, Match 4, etc.) add meaningful value. In Powerball, these prizes contribute about $0.32 to the EV per ticket. However, this still doesn't overcome the overall negative EV.
How this works
Calculations follow the published mathematics of the game — combinatorics for cards, probability theory for dice, and expected-value accounting for wagers. Results are verified against independent references (primarily Wizard of Odds). No calculation here is an opinion or recommendation; it is arithmetic applied to the rules of the game.
What this tool can’t do
When to consult a professional
This tool computes probability and expected value. It is not a betting system and cannot predict the outcome of any individual wager. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources
- [1]Wizard of Odds — Michael Shackleford, ASAIndustrywizardofodds.comAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Actuary; widely cited casino-game probability reference. Used for house-edge and EV verification.
- [2]National Council on Problem GamblingOfficial sourcencpgambling.orgAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Responsible-gambling guidance and 1-800-GAMBLER helpline.
Joseph OrdunaFounder & Software Engineer
Full-stack software engineer specializing in embedded systems, web architecture, and AI/ML. Founder of Practical Web Tools. Built the gesture-controlled drone IP acquired by KD Interactive (Aura Drone, sold on Amazon).