Middle Bet Calculator
Calculate middle bet opportunities, probability, and expected value
Middle Type
Select the type of middle bet
Bet 1 (Original Position)
Your first spread bet
Bet 2 (Opposite Side)
Opposite spread after line move
Probability Settings
Adjust probability estimates
NFL: ~2.5-3% per point | NBA: ~1.5-2% per point
Middle Analysis
Positive expected value middle found
Outcome Scenarios
Total Staked
$220
Max Profit
$200
Expected Value
$22
EV %
+10.14%
Try These Examples
Common middle bet scenarios
Middle Bet Bankroll Simulator
Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations
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How Middle Bets Work
Understanding the middle betting strategy
Example: NFL Point Spread Middle
- 1. You bet Team A -3 (-110) for $110
- 2. Line moves to Team A -7 due to sharp action
- 3. You bet Team A +7 (-110) for $110
- 4. If Team A wins by 4, 5, or 6 - you win BOTH bets!
- 5. Otherwise, you win one and lose one (small loss due to juice)
3, 7, 10 - Most common margins of victory. Middles through these are most valuable.
Each point ≈ 2.5-3% probability in NFL. A 4-point middle ≈ 10-12% chance.
Quick Answer
TL;DR summary
A middle bet (or "middling") occurs when you bet both sides of a point spread at different numbers, creating a chance to win both bets. For example, betting Team A -3 and later Team A +7 means if Team A wins by 4, 5, or 6 points, you win BOTH bets. The middle range is the "sweet spot" where both outcomes win. Middle opportunities arise when lines move significantly.
Key Facts About Middle Bets
Important things to know
- Middles occur when betting opposite sides at different spread values
- The "middle" is the range of scores where both bets win
- Line movements create middle opportunities
- Each number in the middle typically represents ~2.5-3% probability per point for NFL
- Middles on key numbers (3, 7, 10 in NFL) are more valuable
- Both bets need positive expected value individually to be worthwhile
- Push possibilities reduce the middle value
- Live betting can create middle opportunities during games
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about middle betting
What is a middle bet?
A middle bet involves placing wagers on both sides of a point spread at different numbers. If the final margin lands between your two spreads (the "middle"), you win both bets. This creates a high-reward scenario with limited downside.
When do middle opportunities occur?
Middles typically occur when lines move significantly between when you place your first bet and when you can place the opposite side. This happens due to injury news, sharp money, or public betting patterns. Live betting during games also creates middle chances.
How do I calculate middle probability?
For NFL, each point in the middle represents roughly 2.5-3% probability. A 4-point middle (e.g., -3 to +7) covers about 10-12% of outcomes. Key numbers like 3 and 7 are more common margins, so middles including these numbers are more valuable.
What's the risk with middle bets?
The main risk is losing the juice on both bets if the result falls outside your middle. With standard -110 odds on both sides, you risk about 10% on losses but can win nearly 200% on a successful middle. The expected value depends on middle probability.
Should I always chase middle opportunities?
No. The middle must be wide enough to justify the combined juice. A 1-point middle (about 3% chance) typically doesn't overcome the 10% juice on losing both sides. Generally, 3+ point middles start becoming profitable.
What are the best sports for middles?
Football (NFL and college) is best due to low-scoring nature and key numbers. Basketball has more variance but faster line movements create opportunities. Baseball run lines rarely move enough. Hockey puck lines are similar to baseball.