Calculate expected value for all-in decisions. Determine if calling or shoving is profitable based on equity and pot odds.
Current pot before call
All-in amount you need to call
Win probability vs opponent's range
Smaller of the two stacks
Expected Value
$80
Decision
CALL
Profitable long-term
Equity Edge
+20.0%
Need 25.0%, have 45%
Pot Odds
2.0:1
33.3% equity needed
Total Pot
$400
After call
EV %
+80.0%
Return on call
With 45% equity, you have a 20.0% edge over the 25.0% break-even point. This is a +EV call worth an average of $80 per occurrence.
Quick-start with common scenarios
All-In EV calculates expected value when facing or making an all-in bet. If you have 40% equity against a $200 pot with a $100 call, your EV = (40% × $300) - (60% × $100) = $120 - $60 = +$60. A positive EV means calling is profitable long-term.
EV = (Win Probability × Win Amount) - (Lose Probability × Lose Amount)
With $200 in the pot, a $100 call, and 45% equity:
EV = (0.45 × $200) - (0.55 × $100) = $90 - $55 = +$35
Required Equity = Call Amount ÷ (Pot + Call)
For a $100 call into $200: $100 ÷ $300 = 33.3%
In tournaments, chip EV doesn't equal dollar EV. ICM pressure near bubbles and pay jumps often means folding +chip EV spots. A double-up early in a tournament is worth less than chip value because of diminishing returns.
All-In EV (Expected Value) calculates your average profit or loss when calling or making an all-in bet. With 45% equity in a $200 pot facing a $100 all-in, your EV = (0.45 × $200) - (0.55 × $100) = $90 - $55 = +$35. Positive EV means profitable.
Use an equity calculator with your hand vs opponent's range. Against a tight range (QQ+, AK), pocket jacks have ~35% equity. Against a loose range (any pair, any ace), JJ has ~55% equity. The wider the range, the higher your equity typically.
Call when your pot odds are better than your equity needs. If there's $300 in the pot and you need to call $100, you need 25% equity ($100/$400). If you estimate 30% equity, calling is +EV.
Tournaments use ICM (Independent Chip Model) which values chips differently. Early doubles are worth less than survival near the bubble. You should often fold +chip EV spots when ICM pressure is high, especially with pay jumps.
Fold equity is the value gained when opponents fold to your all-in. If you shove $100 into a $50 pot and opponents fold 40% of the time, you profit $50 × 40% = $20 from folds alone, plus your showdown equity when called.