Poker EV Calculator
Calculate expected value for poker decisions to maximize long-term profits
Formula:EV = (Win% × Win) - (Lose% × Loss)
Poker EV Calculator
Calculate expected value of your decisions
%
Your estimated equity or chance of winning
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+EV Play
This is a profitable decision long-term
Expected Value
+$65
per decision on average
Break-even equity: 33.3%
EV Breakdown
Expected Win+$110
Expected Loss-$45
Net EV+$65
Expected Value
+$65
Win Probability
55%
Break-Even
33.3%
Risk/Reward
2.0:1
This is a profitable play. With 55% equity, you win $110 on average when you win, and lose $45 when you lose. Net expected value is +$65 per decision. Making this play repeatedly will profit over time.
Try These Examples
Common poker EV scenarios
EV Decision Tracker
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How EV Works
Understanding expected value
Example: Calling a River Bet
- 1. Situation: Villain bets $100 into a $200 pot
- 2. You estimate: 40% chance you have the best hand
- 3. If you call and win: You win $300 (pot + bet)
- 4. If you call and lose: You lose $100 (your call)
- 5. EV calculation: (0.40 × $300) - (0.60 × $100)
- 6. Result: $120 - $60 = +$60
- 7. Decision: +EV, profitable call!
When EV is Positive
Make the play. Even if you lose this time, you profit over many repetitions. Focus on making the right decision, not the result.
When EV is Negative
Avoid the play. Even if you might win sometimes, you lose money long-term. Look for a better spot or fold.
Quick Answer
TL;DR summary
Expected Value (EV) is the average amount you win or lose per decision over time. Formula: EV = (Win% × Win Amount) - (Lose% × Loss Amount). Example: If you call $100 with 35% equity to win a $250 pot, your EV is (0.35 × $250) - (0.65 × $100) = $87.5 - $65 = +$22.5. Positive EV (+EV) plays are profitable long-term.
Key Facts About Poker EV
Important things to know
- EV = Expected Value = average result over many repetitions
- Positive EV (+EV) = profitable play long-term
- Negative EV (-EV) = losing play long-term
- Formula: EV = (Win% × Win) - (Lose% × Loss)
- Example: 50% to win $100, 50% to lose $50 = EV of +$25
- Always make +EV decisions regardless of short-term results
- Variance can cause -EV plays to win short-term
- Focus on EV, not individual hand results
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about poker EV
What is Expected Value (EV) in poker?
EV is the average amount you expect to win or lose from a decision over infinite repetitions. If you call $100 with 40% equity to win $300, your EV is (0.40 × $300) - (0.60 × $100) = $120 - $60 = +$60. This means the call wins $60 on average.
How do I use EV to make poker decisions?
Compare the EV of each option (call, fold, raise). Choose the highest EV option. If calling has +EV and folding has 0 EV, call. If raising has higher EV than calling, raise. Always consider all options, not just call/fold.
Why did I lose money on a +EV play?
Variance. EV is a long-term average. A +EV play can lose in any single instance. If you have 60% equity, you still lose 40% of the time. Over thousands of hands, +EV plays profit, but any single hand can go either way. Don't results-oriented think.
What is the difference between EV and equity?
Equity is your share of the pot based on hand strength (percentage). EV is the actual monetary value of a decision. You can have 35% equity but still make money if the pot odds are right. EV = (Equity × Pot) - (1-Equity × Cost to Play).
How do I calculate EV for a bluff?
For a bluff, you usually have low equity when called. EV = (Fold% × Pot) + (Call% × Equity × Total Pot) - (Call% × (1-Equity) × Bet). If villain folds often enough, the bluff is +EV even with little equity when called.
How this works
Calculations follow the published mathematics of the game — combinatorics for cards, probability theory for dice, and expected-value accounting for wagers. Results are verified against independent references (primarily Wizard of Odds). No calculation here is an opinion or recommendation; it is arithmetic applied to the rules of the game.
What this tool can’t do
When to consult a professional
This tool computes probability and expected value. It is not a betting system and cannot predict the outcome of any individual wager. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources
- [1]Wizard of Odds — Michael Shackleford, ASAIndustrywizardofodds.comAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Actuary; widely cited casino-game probability reference. Used for house-edge and EV verification.
- [2]National Council on Problem GamblingOfficial sourcencpgambling.orgAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Responsible-gambling guidance and 1-800-GAMBLER helpline.
Joseph OrdunaFounder & Software Engineer
Full-stack software engineer specializing in embedded systems, web architecture, and AI/ML. Founder of Practical Web Tools. Built the gesture-controlled drone IP acquired by KD Interactive (Aura Drone, sold on Amazon).