Poker EV Calculator

Calculate expected value for poker decisions to maximize long-term profits

Formula:EV = (Win% × Win) - (Lose% × Loss)

Poker EV Calculator

Calculate expected value of your decisions

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Your estimated equity or chance of winning

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+EV Play

This is a profitable decision long-term

Expected Value
+$65
per decision on average
Break-even equity: 33.3%

EV Breakdown

Expected Win+$110
Expected Loss-$45
Net EV+$65

Expected Value

+$65

Win Probability

55%

Break-Even

33.3%

Risk/Reward

2.0:1

This is a profitable play. With 55% equity, you win $110 on average when you win, and lose $45 when you lose. Net expected value is +$65 per decision. Making this play repeatedly will profit over time.

Try These Examples

Common poker EV scenarios

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How EV Works

Understanding expected value

Example: Calling a River Bet

  • 1. Situation: Villain bets $100 into a $200 pot
  • 2. You estimate: 40% chance you have the best hand
  • 3. If you call and win: You win $300 (pot + bet)
  • 4. If you call and lose: You lose $100 (your call)
  • 5. EV calculation: (0.40 × $300) - (0.60 × $100)
  • 6. Result: $120 - $60 = +$60
  • 7. Decision: +EV, profitable call!
When EV is Positive

Make the play. Even if you lose this time, you profit over many repetitions. Focus on making the right decision, not the result.

When EV is Negative

Avoid the play. Even if you might win sometimes, you lose money long-term. Look for a better spot or fold.

Quick Answer

TL;DR summary

Expected Value (EV) is the average amount you win or lose per decision over time. Formula: EV = (Win% × Win Amount) - (Lose% × Loss Amount). Example: If you call $100 with 35% equity to win a $250 pot, your EV is (0.35 × $250) - (0.65 × $100) = $87.5 - $65 = +$22.5. Positive EV (+EV) plays are profitable long-term.

Key Facts About Poker EV

Important things to know

  • EV = Expected Value = average result over many repetitions
  • Positive EV (+EV) = profitable play long-term
  • Negative EV (-EV) = losing play long-term
  • Formula: EV = (Win% × Win) - (Lose% × Loss)
  • Example: 50% to win $100, 50% to lose $50 = EV of +$25
  • Always make +EV decisions regardless of short-term results
  • Variance can cause -EV plays to win short-term
  • Focus on EV, not individual hand results

Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about poker EV

What is Expected Value (EV) in poker?

EV is the average amount you expect to win or lose from a decision over infinite repetitions. If you call $100 with 40% equity to win $300, your EV is (0.40 × $300) - (0.60 × $100) = $120 - $60 = +$60. This means the call wins $60 on average.

How do I use EV to make poker decisions?

Compare the EV of each option (call, fold, raise). Choose the highest EV option. If calling has +EV and folding has 0 EV, call. If raising has higher EV than calling, raise. Always consider all options, not just call/fold.

Why did I lose money on a +EV play?

Variance. EV is a long-term average. A +EV play can lose in any single instance. If you have 60% equity, you still lose 40% of the time. Over thousands of hands, +EV plays profit, but any single hand can go either way. Don't results-oriented think.

What is the difference between EV and equity?

Equity is your share of the pot based on hand strength (percentage). EV is the actual monetary value of a decision. You can have 35% equity but still make money if the pot odds are right. EV = (Equity × Pot) - (1-Equity × Cost to Play).

How do I calculate EV for a bluff?

For a bluff, you usually have low equity when called. EV = (Fold% × Pot) + (Call% × Equity × Total Pot) - (Call% × (1-Equity) × Bet). If villain folds often enough, the bluff is +EV even with little equity when called.