Calculate expected value for poker decisions to maximize long-term profits
Calculate expected value of your decisions
Your estimated equity or chance of winning
This is a profitable decision long-term
Expected Value
+$65
Win Probability
55%
Break-Even
33.3%
Risk/Reward
2.0:1
Common poker EV scenarios
0 / 100 entries
0 entries
No bets recorded yet.
Add your first bet to start tracking.
Understanding expected value
Make the play. Even if you lose this time, you profit over many repetitions. Focus on making the right decision, not the result.
Avoid the play. Even if you might win sometimes, you lose money long-term. Look for a better spot or fold.
TL;DR summary
Expected Value (EV) is the average amount you win or lose per decision over time. Formula: EV = (Win% × Win Amount) - (Lose% × Loss Amount). Example: If you call $100 with 35% equity to win a $250 pot, your EV is (0.35 × $250) - (0.65 × $100) = $87.5 - $65 = +$22.5. Positive EV (+EV) plays are profitable long-term.
Important things to know
Common questions about poker EV
EV is the average amount you expect to win or lose from a decision over infinite repetitions. If you call $100 with 40% equity to win $300, your EV is (0.40 × $300) - (0.60 × $100) = $120 - $60 = +$60. This means the call wins $60 on average.
Compare the EV of each option (call, fold, raise). Choose the highest EV option. If calling has +EV and folding has 0 EV, call. If raising has higher EV than calling, raise. Always consider all options, not just call/fold.
Variance. EV is a long-term average. A +EV play can lose in any single instance. If you have 60% equity, you still lose 40% of the time. Over thousands of hands, +EV plays profit, but any single hand can go either way. Don't results-oriented think.
Equity is your share of the pot based on hand strength (percentage). EV is the actual monetary value of a decision. You can have 35% equity but still make money if the pot odds are right. EV = (Equity × Pot) - (1-Equity × Cost to Play).
For a bluff, you usually have low equity when called. EV = (Fold% × Pot) + (Call% × Equity × Total Pot) - (Call% × (1-Equity) × Bet). If villain folds often enough, the bluff is +EV even with little equity when called.