Calculate your probability of going broke based on your bankroll size, win rate, and variance to ensure proper bankroll management.
Your total poker bankroll
Standard buyin for your stakes (optional)
Your expected win rate
Typical: 70-90 for cash, 100-150 for tournaments
Quick-start with common scenarios
Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations
Your initial capital
Your expected advantage
Percentage of bankroll per bet
Total bets to simulate
Risk of Ruin (RoR) is the probability that you will lose your entire bankroll before your edge can overcome variance. It's the most important metric in professional bankroll management.
The Formula: RoR = e^(-2 × WR × BR / σ²), where WR is win rate in BB/100, BR is bankroll in BBs, and σ is standard deviation in BB/100.
Key Insight: Win rate has an exponential effect on RoR. This is why improving your game (increasing WR) is more powerful than just adding to your bankroll.
Important Limitations: This formula assumes:
Real-world poker involves stake changes, withdrawals, and skill development, so use this as a guide rather than an exact prediction.
Most professionals target <5% risk of ruin for their main stakes. Recreational players might accept 10-15%. A $5,000 bankroll with 5% RoR means you have a 95% chance of never going broke.
Win rate has an exponential effect on RoR. Doubling your win rate from 3 to 6 BB/100 can reduce your RoR from 20% to under 1%. Breakeven players (0 BB/100) have 100% RoR regardless of bankroll size.
You have three options: 1) Move down in stakes to increase effective bankroll, 2) Add more money to your bankroll, or 3) Improve your win rate through study. Moving down is usually the safest option.
No. This formula assumes you never withdraw. If you take money from your poker bankroll regularly, your effective RoR is higher. Many players use separate life/poker bankrolls to avoid this issue.
Yes, but there are practical limits. Moving up in stakes to chase higher hourly might decrease your edge. A 5 BB/100 winner at $1/$2 has lower RoR than a 2 BB/100 winner at $2/$5, even with less hourly.