Poker Risk of Ruin Calculator
Calculate your probability of going broke based on your bankroll size, win rate, and variance to ensure proper bankroll management.
Your total poker bankroll
Standard buyin for your stakes (optional)
Your expected win rate
Typical: 70-90 for cash, 100-150 for tournaments
Try These Examples
Quick-start with common scenarios
Bankroll Simulator
Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations
Your initial capital
Your expected advantage
Percentage of bankroll per bet
Total bets to simulate
Understanding Risk of Ruin
Risk of Ruin (RoR) is the probability that you will lose your entire bankroll before your edge can overcome variance. It's the most important metric in professional bankroll management.
The Formula: RoR = e^(-2 × WR × BR / σ²), where WR is win rate in BB/100, BR is bankroll in BBs, and σ is standard deviation in BB/100.
Key Insight: Win rate has an exponential effect on RoR. This is why improving your game (increasing WR) is more powerful than just adding to your bankroll.
Important Limitations: This formula assumes:
- You never withdraw from your bankroll
- You play at the same stakes forever
- Your win rate remains constant
- Results follow a normal distribution
Real-world poker involves stake changes, withdrawals, and skill development, so use this as a guide rather than an exact prediction.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is an acceptable risk of ruin?
Most professionals target <5% risk of ruin for their main stakes. Recreational players might accept 10-15%. A $5,000 bankroll with 5% RoR means you have a 95% chance of never going broke.
How does win rate affect risk of ruin?
Win rate has an exponential effect on RoR. Doubling your win rate from 3 to 6 BB/100 can reduce your RoR from 20% to under 1%. Breakeven players (0 BB/100) have 100% RoR regardless of bankroll size.
What if my risk of ruin is too high?
You have three options: 1) Move down in stakes to increase effective bankroll, 2) Add more money to your bankroll, or 3) Improve your win rate through study. Moving down is usually the safest option.
Does the RoR formula account for withdrawals?
No. This formula assumes you never withdraw. If you take money from your poker bankroll regularly, your effective RoR is higher. Many players use separate life/poker bankrolls to avoid this issue.
Is a higher win rate always better for RoR?
Yes, but there are practical limits. Moving up in stakes to chase higher hourly might decrease your edge. A 5 BB/100 winner at $1/$2 has lower RoR than a 2 BB/100 winner at $2/$5, even with less hourly.