Track Closing Line Value to measure your betting edge
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Understanding CLV at a glance
CLV (Closing Line Value) measures if you bet at better odds than the closing line. Formula: CLV = (Closing Implied - Your Implied) / Closing Implied × 100. If you bet +150 (40% implied) and closed at +130 (43.5% implied), CLV = (43.5-40)/43.5 = +8%. Positive CLV predicts long-term profit.
Important concepts for understanding CLV
Common questions about CLV tracking
CLV measures whether you got better odds than the final (closing) line before an event starts. The closing line is considered the most efficient price because it incorporates all market information. Beating the closing line consistently indicates finding value the market missed.
The closing line reflects the true probability better than any earlier price. If you consistently bet at +150 when lines close at +130, you're capturing value regardless of whether individual bets win or lose. Over thousands of bets, positive CLV converts to profit.
Average CLV of 2-3% is considered sharp. Elite bettors achieve 4-5%+ CLV. Even 1% CLV is profitable long-term. Note that 0% CLV doesn't mean break-even - it means you're betting at market efficiency, but vig still applies.
Record your bet odds at time of placement and the closing odds just before the event. Calculate CLV for each bet and track your average. Focus on sports/markets where you consistently beat the close. This tool automates the calculation.
For long-term projection, CLV matters more. A bettor with +3% CLV and 48% win rate will outperform someone with -2% CLV and 55% win rate over time. Short-term results are noisy; CLV shows true edge. Track both, but trust CLV for evaluating strategy.
No-vig CLV removes the sportsbook's margin from the calculation, giving a purer measure of value. It compares your odds to what the fair (no-juice) closing line would be. More accurate but requires knowing both sides of the closing line.