CLV Tracker
Track Closing Line Value to measure your betting edge
Formula:CLV = (Closing Implied - Your Implied) / Closing Implied × 100%
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CLV Bankroll Simulator
Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations
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Quick Answer
Understanding CLV at a glance
CLV (Closing Line Value) measures if you bet at better odds than the closing line. Formula: CLV = (Closing Implied - Your Implied) / Closing Implied × 100. If you bet +150 (40% implied) and closed at +130 (43.5% implied), CLV = (43.5-40)/43.5 = +8%. Positive CLV predicts long-term profit.
Key Facts About CLV
Important concepts for understanding CLV
- ✓CLV is the best predictor of long-term betting success
- ✓Consistently beating closing lines by 2-3% indicates sharp betting
- ✓The closing line is considered the most accurate market price
- ✓Positive CLV bettors are profitable even with sub-50% win rates
- ✓Sportsbooks use CLV to identify sharp bettors for limiting
- ✓Steam moves (line changes from sharp action) are CLV indicators
- ✓Short-term results can mislead - CLV tracks true edge over time
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about CLV tracking
What is Closing Line Value (CLV)?
CLV measures whether you got better odds than the final (closing) line before an event starts. The closing line is considered the most efficient price because it incorporates all market information. Beating the closing line consistently indicates finding value the market missed.
Why does CLV predict profitability?
The closing line reflects the true probability better than any earlier price. If you consistently bet at +150 when lines close at +130, you're capturing value regardless of whether individual bets win or lose. Over thousands of bets, positive CLV converts to profit.
What is good CLV?
Average CLV of 2-3% is considered sharp. Elite bettors achieve 4-5%+ CLV. Even 1% CLV is profitable long-term. Note that 0% CLV doesn't mean break-even - it means you're betting at market efficiency, but vig still applies.
How do I track CLV?
Record your bet odds at time of placement and the closing odds just before the event. Calculate CLV for each bet and track your average. Focus on sports/markets where you consistently beat the close. This tool automates the calculation.
CLV vs actual results - which matters more?
For long-term projection, CLV matters more. A bettor with +3% CLV and 48% win rate will outperform someone with -2% CLV and 55% win rate over time. Short-term results are noisy; CLV shows true edge. Track both, but trust CLV for evaluating strategy.
What is no-vig CLV?
No-vig CLV removes the sportsbook's margin from the calculation, giving a purer measure of value. It compares your odds to what the fair (no-juice) closing line would be. More accurate but requires knowing both sides of the closing line.
How this works
Calculations follow the published mathematics of the game — combinatorics for cards, probability theory for dice, and expected-value accounting for wagers. Results are verified against independent references (primarily Wizard of Odds). No calculation here is an opinion or recommendation; it is arithmetic applied to the rules of the game.
What this tool can’t do
When to consult a professional
This tool computes probability and expected value. It is not a betting system and cannot predict the outcome of any individual wager. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources
- [1]Wizard of Odds — Michael Shackleford, ASAIndustrywizardofodds.comAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Actuary; widely cited casino-game probability reference. Used for house-edge and EV verification.
- [2]National Council on Problem GamblingOfficial sourcencpgambling.orgAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Responsible-gambling guidance and 1-800-GAMBLER helpline.
Joseph OrdunaFounder & Software Engineer
Full-stack software engineer specializing in embedded systems, web architecture, and AI/ML. Founder of Practical Web Tools. Built the gesture-controlled drone IP acquired by KD Interactive (Aura Drone, sold on Amazon).