Closing Line Value Calculator: The Ultimate Measure of Betting Skill

Closing Line Value (CLV) is considered the gold standard for measuring betting skill. Our free calculator tracks whether you're consistently betting at better odds than the market's final price—the strongest indicator of long-term profitability.

What Is Closing Line Value?

CLV measures the difference between the odds you bet and the final odds before game time. Consistently getting better odds than the closing line proves you have an edge.

Quick Answer: If you bet Chiefs -3 (-110) and the line closes at Chiefs -3.5 (-110), you have positive CLV because you got a better number. Over time, bettors with consistent positive CLV profit, while those with negative CLV lose—regardless of short-term results.

How to Use Our Free CLV Calculator

Use the Closing Line Value Calculator →

Enter your bet odds and the closing line to measure your edge.

Step-by-Step Instructions

1. Enter Your Bet Odds: The line when you placed your wager

2. Enter Closing Line: The final odds before game start

3. Input Stake (Optional): See dollar value of your CLV

4. View Results: See CLV percentage and expected value

Input Fields Explained

Field	Description	Example
Your Odds	Line when you bet	-110
Closing Odds	Final line at kickoff	-115
Bet Type	Spread, moneyline, total	Spread
Stake	Amount wagered	$100

Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate

The Predictive Power of CLV

Studies of professional betting syndicates show:

CLV Average	Long-Term Expectation
+3% or more	Highly profitable
+1% to +3%	Profitable
0% to +1%	Breakeven to slight profit
-1% to 0%	Slight loss
Below -1%	Losing bettor

Key insight: Short-term win rates are noisy. CLV is a stable measure of skill.

Why Closing Lines Are "Sharp"

Closing lines are efficient because:

• All available information is priced in
• Sharp money has moved the line to its "true" value
• The market has had maximum time to correct
• Sportsbooks adjust based on sophisticated action

Beating this final price means you identified value the market missed.

CLV Calculation Methods

Percentage CLV (Most Common)

For Point Spreads:

CLV% = (Your Implied Prob - Closing Implied Prob) / Closing Implied Prob × 100

For Moneylines:

CLV% = (Your No-Vig Odds - Closing No-Vig Odds) / Closing No-Vig Odds × 100

Example Calculations

Spread Example:

• Your bet: Chiefs -3 (-110) → 52.38% implied
• Closing line: Chiefs -3.5 (-110) → 52.38% implied

The half-point improvement has value even at same juice. At -3, you win pushes that would lose at -3.5.

Moneyline Example:

• Your bet: Underdog +150 → 40% implied
• Closing line: Underdog +130 → 43.48% implied
• CLV: (43.48% - 40%) / 40% = +8.7% CLV

You got 8.7% better odds than the closing market price.

Real-World CLV Examples

Example 1: Catching Line Movement

Monday:

• You bet: Bills -2.5 (-110)
• Reason: Early value before public money

Sunday (Close):

• Closing line: Bills -4 (-110)

CLV Calculation:

• You got 1.5 points better than close
• Approximately +3-4% CLV on this bet

Outcome: Even if the Bills win by 3 (you win, closing bettors push), your bet was +EV.

Example 2: Fading Public Action

Situation: Heavy public favorite expected to move

Your bet: Underdog +6.5 (-110) at open

Closing line: Underdog +5 (-110)

Result: +1.5 points of positive CLV. You beat the market.

Example 3: Steam Move

You notice: Sharp action on a totals market

Your bet: Over 47.5 (-110)

Closing line: Over 49 (-110)

CLV: Approximately +3% from beating the sharp-driven move

Building a CLV Tracking System

What to Track

For each bet, record:

• Bet details (team, spread/ML/total, odds)
• Time of bet
• Closing line
• Outcome (win/loss/push)
• CLV percentage

Sample Tracking Spreadsheet

Date	Bet	Your Odds	Close Odds	CLV%	Stake	Result
1/15	KC -3	-110	-120	+2.1%	$100	Win
1/16	NYG +7	-110	-105	-1.2%	$100	Loss
1/17	Over 48	-108	-115	+1.8%	$100	Win

Running CLV Average: +0.9%

Interpreting Your CLV

Your Average CLV	Interpretation
+2% or higher	Excellent—you're finding real value
+1% to +2%	Good—you have an edge
0% to +1%	Marginal—edge may exist but small
-1% to 0%	Concerning—you may be betting bad lines
Below -1%	Problem—consistently taking bad odds

CLV vs. Win Rate

Short-Term Noise

Scenario	Win Rate	CLV	Reality
Lucky bad bettor	55%	-2%	Will regress, eventually lose
Unlucky sharp	48%	+2%	Will regress, eventually profit
Consistent winner	53%	+1.5%	Sustainable edge

CLV filters out luck. A 100-bet sample with positive CLV is more meaningful than a 100-bet sample with high win rate but negative CLV.

Why This Matters

Professional bettors focus on CLV because:

• Win rate varies wildly short-term
• CLV stabilizes quickly (50-100 bets)
• CLV directly measures edge
• You can't control outcomes, only process

Strategies for Positive CLV

1. Bet Early

Lines at release have the most inefficiency:

• Books have less information
• Sharp money hasn't corrected errors
• More edge available to capture

2. Identify Sharp vs. Public Movement

Sharp movement (follow):

• Large line move on small handle
• Occurs at market-leading books
• Often early in the week

Public movement (fade):

• Gradual shift toward popular teams
• Larger on prime-time games
• Creates value on the other side

3. Act on News Quickly

Before lines adjust:

• Injury reports
• Weather changes
• Lineup announcements

The faster you act, the more CLV you capture.

4. Use Multiple Sportsbooks

Different books close at different lines:

• Bet the best number available
• Some books are slower to adjust
• More options = more CLV opportunities

Common CLV Mistakes

1. Ignoring CLV Entirely: Many bettors only track wins and losses, missing the bigger picture of their actual edge.

2. Cherry-Picking CLV Data: Only counting CLV when it's positive distorts your true performance.

3. Betting Right Before Close: Late bettors rarely get positive CLV because lines are most efficient at close.

4. Chasing Steam After It's Done: By the time you see a line move, the CLV opportunity is gone.

5. Small Sample Conclusions: 20 bets isn't enough to determine CLV edge. Need 100+ for meaningful data.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I profit with negative CLV?

Short-term, yes (luck). Long-term, no. Negative CLV means you're consistently paying more for bets than their true value—a losing proposition mathematically.

How many bets until CLV is meaningful?

Generally 100+ bets for a reliable CLV average. Below that, variance in outcomes and line movements creates noise.

Does CLV guarantee profits?

CLV strongly predicts profits but doesn't guarantee them. Extreme variance can cause short-term losses even with positive CLV. Over large samples, positive CLV almost always means profit.

What's a realistic CLV target?

Professional bettors average +1-3% CLV. Anything consistently above +2% is excellent. Recreational bettors should aim for at least breakeven CLV.

Should I track CLV on all bet types?

Yes, but CLV is most meaningful on point spreads and totals. Moneyline CLV requires converting to no-vig odds for accurate comparison.

Does the closing line account for late scratches?

Major changes may adjust the closing line. For CLV purposes, use the final line available before kickoff barring extraordinary circumstances.

Pro Tips for CLV Tracking

• Automate When Possible: Use spreadsheets with formulas to calculate CLV instantly

• Compare Across Markets: Track CLV separately for spreads, totals, and moneylines

• Note Time of Bet: Early bets typically have more CLV potential

• Review Monthly: Analyze patterns—are certain bet types or sports giving you better CLV?

• Don't Overreact: A bad CLV week doesn't mean your process is wrong. Look at 50+ bet samples.

CLV and Bankroll Growth

Expected Return from CLV

If you average +2% CLV on every bet:

Annual Volume	Expected Profit
$10,000	$200
$50,000	$1,000
$100,000	$2,000

This assumes the market is perfectly efficient at close. In reality, your actual returns may vary based on outcomes.

Compounding CLV Edge

Consistent +CLV bets compound like interest:

• Each bet has positive expected value
• Reinvesting profits accelerates growth
• Small edges become significant over volume

Related Sports Betting Calculators

• Vig Calculator - Measure the juice
• Expected Value Calculator - Is this bet profitable?
• Implied Probability Calculator - Convert odds
• Kelly Criterion Calculator - Optimal bet sizing
• Odds Converter - Compare formats

Conclusion

Closing Line Value is the most reliable indicator of sports betting skill. While anyone can get lucky in the short term, only bettors with genuine edge consistently beat the closing line. Our free calculator helps you track CLV over time, revealing whether you're truly finding value or just getting lucky.

Calculate Your Closing Line Value Now →

Start tracking CLV today. Over your next 100 bets, you'll learn more about your true edge than years of just counting wins and losses. The closing line doesn't lie—it tells you exactly where you stand as a bettor.