Casino War Odds Calculator: The Simplest Casino Game

Casino War is the easiest card game in the casino—higher card wins. But that simplicity hides a significant house edge, especially on ties. Our calculator reveals the true odds, exposes the tie bet trap, and shows why "going to war" is always the right choice.

What Is Casino War?

Casino War is a card game where you and the dealer each receive one card, and the higher card wins. If you tie, you can either surrender half your bet or "go to war" by matching your original bet for another draw. It's essentially the childhood game "War" with casino rules.

Quick Answer: Casino War = higher card wins. House edge: 2.88% (with war). Tie probability: 7.69% (same rank). Surrender: lose half (5.26% edge). Go to war: better choice (2.88% edge). Tie bet: 18.65% edge (avoid). Always go to war on ties. Never bet on tie. Simplest game, moderate edge.

How to Use Our Calculator

Use the Casino War Calculator →

Calculate win probabilities and optimal decisions.

Step-by-Step Instructions

1. View Base Odds: Win/tie/lose probabilities

2. See Tie Options: War vs surrender

3. Calculate EV: Each decision

4. Check Tie Bet: Why to avoid

5. Compare Strategies: Optimal play

Input Fields Explained

Field	Description	Example
Bet Amount	Your wager	$25
Win Probability	Beat dealer	46.30%
Lose Probability	Dealer wins	46.30%
Tie Probability	Same rank	7.69%
War Edge	Go to war	2.88%
Surrender Edge	Give up	5.26%

Basic Probability

Card Rank Distribution

Standard 6-deck shoe:

Each rank (2-A): 24 cards
Total cards: 312

Your card vs dealer card:
Win: 46.30%
Lose: 46.30%
Tie: 7.69%

Perfectly balanced before tie rules

Why Equal Win/Lose?

Symmetrical game:

Same deck for both
Same draw method
No positional advantage

Before tie resolution:
0% house edge

Ties create the edge

Tie Frequency

Same rank probability:

You draw any card
Dealer has 23 matching (same rank)
Of 311 remaining

23/311 = 7.40%

With multiple decks:
Slightly higher at 7.69%

Tie Resolution

Option 1: Surrender

Surrender on tie:

You lose half your original bet
Keep half

$20 bet, tie occurs:
Lose $10, keep $10

House edge from surrender:
3.70% of ties × 50% loss
= 1.85% contribution

But wait—this isn't full picture

Option 2: Go to War

Going to war:

Match original bet (burn 3 cards)
Draw new cards
If you win: Win original bet only
If you lose: Lose both bets
If tie again: Win original bet

$20 original, $20 war bet:
Win war: +$20 (not +$40)
Lose war: -$40
Tie again: +$20

Why War Is Better

War mathematics:

After going to war:
Win: 46.30% → +$20
Lose: 46.30% → -$40
Tie: 7.69% → +$20

EV = (0.463 × $20) + (0.0769 × $20) - (0.463 × $40)
EV = $9.26 + $1.54 - $18.52
EV = -$7.72 on $40 at risk

Effective edge: ~2.88% on original bet

Surrender: 5.26% edge
War: 2.88% edge

Always go to war

The Tie Bet Trap

Tie Bet Payout

Betting on tie:

Pays 10:1 typically
Some casinos: 11:1

Probability: 7.69%
Fair odds: 12:1

At 10:1 payout:
House edge: 18.65%

At 11:1 payout:
House edge: 10.36%

Terrible bet either way

Why Tie Bets Exist

Casino psychology:

High payout attractive
Low probability hidden
Feels like good value
Actually massive edge

Compare to:
Blackjack: 0.5%
Roulette: 2.7%
Tie bet: 18.65%

One of worst bets available

Example Loss Rate

$5 tie bets over 100 hands:

Expected ties: 7.69
Win: 7.69 × $50 = $385
Cost: 100 × $5 = $500

Net: -$115
Edge: 23% experienced

Never bet on tie

House Edge Analysis

Full Edge Breakdown

Casino War house edge:

Base game (no ties): 0%
Tie resolution: 2.88%
Combined: 2.88%

If always surrender:
0% base + 3.70% tie impact
= 5.26% edge

Optimal (always war):
2.88% edge

Tie bet: 18.65% edge

Deck Count Impact

House edge by decks:

1 deck: 2.42%
2 decks: 2.70%
6 decks: 2.88%
8 decks: 2.90%

More decks = higher edge
But difference is small

Comparison to Other Games

House edge comparison:

Blackjack (basic): 0.50%
Craps (pass): 1.41%
Baccarat: 1.06%
Casino War: 2.88%
Roulette (Euro): 2.70%
Slots: 2-15%

War = moderate edge
Better than slots
Worse than table games

Real-World Examples

Example 1: Standard Session

100 hands at $10:

Expected outcomes:

Wins: 46.3 → +$463
Losses: 46.3 → -$463
Ties: 7.7 (go to war)

War outcomes (of 7.7 ties):
War wins: 3.6 → +$36
War losses: 3.6 → -$72
War ties: 0.6 → +$6

Net from wars: -$30

Total EV: -$30
Edge: 2.88%

Plus tie bet avoided

Example 2: Surrender vs War

10 ties at $25 each:

Surrender strategy:
Lose $12.50 each × 10 = $125

War strategy (10 wars):
War wins: 4.6 × $25 = $115
War losses: 4.6 × $50 = $230
War ties: 0.8 × $25 = $20

Net: $115 + $20 - $230 = -$95

War saves: $30 over 10 ties

Example 3: Tie Bet Disaster

$5 side bet every hand:

100 hands:
Main game EV: -$29 (at $25/hand)
Tie bet EV: -$93 (at $5/hand)

Combined: -$122

Tie bet triples losses
On fraction of main bet

Example 4: Perfect Strategy Session

200 hands, $20 bets:

Always go to war
Never bet on tie

Expected loss: 200 × $20 × 2.88%
= $115

Variance high:
1 SD ≈ $280

Range: -$395 to +$165
Most sessions lose
Some profitable sessions possible

Optimal Strategy

The Complete Strategy

Casino War optimal play:

1. Make main bet
2. Never bet on tie
3. Always go to war on ties
4. That's it

No decisions during play
No card counting value
No skill element

Why No Card Counting?

Card counting fails:

No draw/stand decisions
Can't adjust play based on count
No advantageous situations

Count high (many 10s/A):
Still same game
Still same probabilities
No player advantage possible

Bankroll Recommendations

For Casino War:

2.88% edge is moderate
Variance fairly high
20-30 buy-ins recommended

$500 session bankroll:
$15-25 bets appropriate
200-400 hands expected play

Common Mistakes

1. Ever Surrendering

Mistake: Thinking half loss is safe Problem: War has better EV Fix: Always go to war

2. Tie Bet "Insurance"

Mistake: Protecting against ties Problem: 18.65% house edge Fix: Never bet on tie

3. Thinking It's Pure Luck

Mistake: No strategy exists Problem: Tie decision matters Fix: War is optimal; surrender isn't

4. Playing for Too Long

Mistake: Extended sessions Problem: Edge compounds Fix: Short entertainment sessions

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I ever surrender?

No. Surrender has a 5.26% house edge versus 2.88% for going to war. Always go to war on ties.

Is the tie bet ever worth it?

Never for expected value. At 10:1 payout with 7.69% probability, the house edge is 18.65%—among the worst bets in the casino.

How many decks are used?

Typically 6-8 decks. More decks slightly increase house edge but the difference is minimal (2.88% vs 2.90%).

Can you count cards in Casino War?

No practical advantage. Unlike blackjack, you can't change your strategy based on remaining cards. Every hand plays the same.

Is Casino War better than slots?

Usually yes. 2.88% edge beats most slots (5-15% edge). But it's worse than blackjack (0.5%), craps (1.4%), or baccarat (1.1%).

Why does the casino always win ties?

They don't—but war rules favor them. When you go to war and win, you only get your original bet (not the war bet). This asymmetry creates the edge.

Pro Tips

• Always war: Never surrender on ties

• Skip tie bet: 18.65% edge is awful

• Simple game: No strategy beyond war

• Entertainment pricing: 2.88% is moderate

• Know the edge: Better than slots, worse than most tables

Related Calculators

• Blackjack Odds Calculator - Better odds
• Baccarat Odds Calculator - Simple alternative
• House Edge Calculator - Compare games
• Expected Value Calculator - Bet analysis
• Gambling Budget Calculator - Responsible play

Conclusion

Casino War is the simplest card game—higher card wins. But the tie rules create a 2.88% house edge (or 5.26% if you surrender). Our calculator shows why going to war is always correct and why that tempting tie bet at 10:1 is actually an 18.65% trap.

Calculate Casino War Odds Now →

Surrendering half your bet feels safe, but going to war reduces the house edge from 5.26% to 2.88%. Our calculator proves why the simplest game still has a correct strategy—and why that tie bet is never worth it.