Calculate the odds, probabilities, and house edge for all baccarat bets. Compare Banker, Player, Tie, and side bets to find the mathematically optimal strategy.
Win Probability
45.86%
House Edge
1.06%
Payout
1:1 (5% commission)
Bet that banker hand wins. Standard 5% commission on wins.
45.86%
Banker Wins
44.62%
Player Wins
9.52%
Tie
When ties push: Banker wins 50.68% | Player wins 49.32%
This 1.36% advantage is why Banker is the better bet, even with 5% commission.
| Bet | Probability | Payout | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 45.86% | 1:1 (5% commission) | 1.06% |
| Player | 44.62% | 1:1 | 1.24% |
| Tie | 9.52% | 8:1 | 14.36% |
| Banker Pair | 7.47% | 11:1 | 10.36% |
| Player Pair | 7.47% | 11:1 | 10.36% |
| Either Pair | 14.22% | 5:1 | 14.54% |
| Perfect Pair | 3.35% | 25:1 | 13.03% |
| Big | 68.21% | 0.54:1 | 4.35% |
| Small | 31.79% | 1.5:1 | 5.27% |
| Dragon 7 | 2.25% | 40:1 | 7.61% |
| Panda 8 | 3.42% | 25:1 | 10.19% |
Banker wins 45.86% of hands, Player wins 44.62%, and Tie occurs 9.52%. The Banker bet has the lowest house edge at 1.06% (with 5% commission), making it the mathematically optimal choice. Player bet has 1.24% edge. Avoid the Tie bet at 14.36% edge.
Baccarat is one of the simplest casino games with some of the best odds available. Unlike blackjack, there are no decisions to make after betting - the outcome is determined entirely by the cards and fixed drawing rules.
The Banker hand has an advantage because it acts last. The Banker's decision to draw a third card is based on knowing what the Player's third card was (if drawn). This information advantage results in Banker winning 50.68% of non-tie hands.
Banker wins 45.86% of all hands, Player wins 44.62%, and 9.52% are ties. When excluding ties (which push), Banker wins 50.68% and Player wins 49.32%. This ~1.4% difference is why Banker is the better bet.
Banker wins more often due to the drawing rules - the banker acts last and can make decisions based on the player's third card. Even with the 5% commission on wins, Banker has 1.06% house edge vs Player's 1.24%.
The Tie bet has a 14.36% house edge at 8:1 payout (4.84% at 9:1). While the 8:1 or 9:1 payout seems attractive, the 9.52% probability means you're losing money much faster than Banker or Player bets. Avoid it.
No betting pattern (streak betting, chop betting, etc.) can overcome the house edge. Each hand is independent with the same probabilities. Pattern betting may be fun but has no mathematical advantage.
A natural (8 or 9 on the first two cards) occurs approximately 16.25% of the time for each hand. When one hand has a natural, it usually wins immediately unless both hands have naturals of the same value (tie).
Quick-start with common scenarios
Win Probability
45.86%
House Edge
1.06%
Payout
1:1 (5% commission)
Bet that banker hand wins. Standard 5% commission on wins.