Craps Fire Bet Calculator: Odds & Payout Guide (2026)
Craps Fire Bet Calculator: Chasing the Hot Shooter
The Fire Bet is craps' most exciting side wager—win by having a shooter make multiple unique points. Payouts can reach 1,000:1 for hitting all six points, but the house edge is brutal. Our calculator reveals the true odds behind this tempting bet.
What Is the Craps Fire Bet?
The Fire Bet wins when a single shooter makes multiple different point numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) before sevening out. The more unique points hit, the higher the payout—up to 1,000:1 for all six.
Quick Answer: Fire Bet house edge is approximately 20-25% depending on pay table. Hitting 4 unique points (minimum payout) has ~2.6% probability. Hitting all 6 points: ~0.016% (1 in 6,150). Expected value: lose $0.20-$0.25 per dollar wagered. It's a lottery ticket at the craps table—fun for entertainment, terrible for expected value.
How to Use Our Fire Bet Calculator
Use the Craps Fire Bet Calculator →
Enter pay table and bet amount to see odds, expected value, and probability analysis.
Step-by-Step Instructions
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Enter Bet Amount: Your fire bet wager
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Select Pay Table: Casino's specific payouts
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View Probabilities: Chance of each tier
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See Expected Value: Long-term cost
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Analyze Payouts: Potential returns
Input Fields Explained
| Field | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Bet Amount | Fire bet wager | $5 |
| Pay Table | Payout structure | Standard |
| Points Needed | Unique points | 4, 5, or 6 |
| Probability | Chance of hitting | 2.6% (4 pts) |
| Payout | Win multiplier | 25:1 (4 pts) |
| House Edge | Casino advantage | ~20% |
Fire Bet Probabilities
Core Probabilities
| Points Made | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 points | 97.35% | 36:1 against any win |
| 4 unique points | 2.02% | 49:1 |
| 5 unique points | 0.47% | 212:1 |
| 6 unique points | 0.016% | 6,150:1 |
Cumulative Probabilities
| Achievement | Probability |
|---|---|
| Win anything (4+) | 2.65% |
| Win 5+ points | 0.63% |
| Win 6 points | 0.016% |
Standard Pay Tables
Most Common Payouts
| Points | Standard | Liberal | Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 25:1 | 24:1 | 10:1 |
| 5 | 250:1 | 249:1 | 200:1 |
| 6 | 1,000:1 | 999:1 | 1,000:1 |
House Edge by Table
| Pay Table | House Edge |
|---|---|
| Liberal (25/250/1000) | 20.0% |
| Standard (24/249/999) | 20.7% |
| Conservative (10/200/1000) | 24.9% |
How Points Work
Available Point Numbers
Only these numbers count toward Fire Bet:
| Point | Ways to Roll | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | 8.33% |
| 5 | 4 | 11.11% |
| 6 | 5 | 13.89% |
| 8 | 5 | 13.89% |
| 9 | 4 | 11.11% |
| 10 | 3 | 8.33% |
Point Success Rates
Once a point is established:
| Point | Make Probability | Seven-Out Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 33.33% | 66.67% |
| 5 | 40.00% | 60.00% |
| 6 | 45.45% | 54.55% |
| 8 | 45.45% | 54.55% |
| 9 | 40.00% | 60.00% |
| 10 | 33.33% | 66.67% |
Real-World Examples
Example 1: Standard Fire Bet
Bet: $5 Shooter makes: 4 unique points (4, 6, 8, 9)
Payout (25:1):
- Win: $5 × 25 = $125
- Net profit: $125
Example 2: Five-Point Fire
Bet: $5 Shooter makes: 5 unique points
Payout (250:1):
- Win: $5 × 250 = $1,250
- Net profit: $1,250
Example 3: Six-Point Fire (Jackpot)
Bet: $5 Shooter makes: All 6 points!
Payout (1,000:1):
- Win: $5 × 1,000 = $5,000
- Net profit: $5,000
Example 4: Typical Outcome
100 Fire Bets at $5:
- Cost: $500
- Expected wins: ~2.6 at 4 points (×$125) = $325
- Expected wins: ~0.5 at 5 points (×$1,250) = $625
- Expected wins: ~0.016 at 6 points (×$5,000) = $80
- Total expected return: ~$400
- Expected loss: ~$100 (20%)
Long-Term Expectations
Per-Session Analysis
| Shooters | Expected 4-pt | Expected 5-pt | Expected 6-pt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.003 |
| 50 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.008 |
| 100 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.016 |
| 500 | 13 | 3 | 0.08 |
Break-Even Analysis
| Payout | Bets to See 1 Win | Cost at $5/bet |
|---|---|---|
| 4 points | ~50 shooters | ~$250 |
| 5 points | ~213 shooters | ~$1,065 |
| 6 points | ~6,150 shooters | ~$30,750 |
Fire Bet vs Other Craps Bets
House Edge Comparison
| Bet | House Edge |
|---|---|
| Pass line | 1.41% |
| Don't pass | 1.36% |
| Odds bet | 0% |
| Place 6/8 | 1.52% |
| Fire bet | 20%+ |
| Horn bet | 12.5% |
Entertainment Value
| Bet | Excitement | Math | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fire bet | Very high | Terrible | Entertainment only |
| Pass + odds | Medium | Excellent | Primary bet |
| Place bets | Medium | Good | Secondary |
Strategic Considerations
When to Consider Fire Bet
| Situation | Rationale |
|---|---|
| Small budget | $1 bet for session excitement |
| Hot table feel | Already winning, entertainment bet |
| Group play | Shared excitement |
| Never | As serious strategy |
Bankroll Management
| Session Budget | Fire Bet Allocation |
|---|---|
| $100 | $0-$5 |
| $300 | $5-$10 |
| $500 | $5-$15 |
| $1,000 | $10-$25 |
Never allocate more than 2-3% of bankroll to Fire Bet.
Common Fire Bet Mistakes
1. Large Fire Bets
Mistake: Betting $25-$100 on Fire Bet Problem: 20%+ edge destroys bankroll Fix: Maximum $1-$5, entertainment only
2. Chasing After Near-Misses
Mistake: Increasing bets after 3 points Problem: Each shooter is independent Fix: Same small bet every time
3. Expecting "Due" Fire
Mistake: Betting more after many misses Problem: Random outcomes, no memory Fix: Flat betting, accept randomness
4. Replacing Good Bets
Mistake: Fire Bet instead of pass + odds Problem: 20% edge vs 0.8% combined edge Fix: Fire Bet supplements, never replaces
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the realistic odds of hitting a Fire Bet?
4 points: ~1 in 50 shooters. 5 points: ~1 in 200 shooters. 6 points: ~1 in 6,150 shooters. Plan to never see a 6-point fire.
Is Fire Bet ever a good bet?
Mathematically, never. Entertainment-wise, a small bet adds excitement. The 20%+ house edge makes it one of the worst casino bets.
Should I bet more if the shooter hits 2-3 points?
No. You can't add to the Fire Bet after the come-out roll. What's bet is bet.
How often do 6-point fires actually happen?
Roughly once per 6,000+ shooters. At a busy table, maybe once per several hundred hours of play.
Why do casinos offer such high payouts?
Because the odds against winning are astronomical. 1,000:1 sounds amazing, but true odds are closer to 6,000:1.
Can I hedge my Fire Bet?
Not really. No complementary bet offsets Fire Bet losing. Once placed, you ride it out.
Advanced Concepts
Expected Value Calculation
EV = (P(4) × Payout4) + (P(5) × Payout5) + (P(6) × Payout6) - 1
Standard table:
EV = (0.0202 × 25) + (0.0047 × 250) + (0.00016 × 1000) - 1
EV = 0.505 + 1.175 + 0.16 - 1
EV = 0.84 - 1 = -0.16 or -16%
(Varies by exact probabilities and pay table)
Variance Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Win frequency | 2.65% |
| Average win (when hit) | ~31x bet |
| Standard deviation | Very high |
| Recommended sessions | 1,000+ for convergence |
Session Simulation
Over 1,000 sessions (20 shooters each, $5/bet):
| Outcome | Sessions |
|---|---|
| Lose entire $100 | ~374 |
| Win $25-$125 | ~420 |
| Win $1,250+ | ~6 |
| Win $5,000 | ~0.3 |
Pro Tips
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Budget strictly: $1-$5 maximum, never more
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Don't replace good bets: Fire Bet supplements entertainment
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Accept the math: 20%+ edge, you will lose long-term
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Enjoy the moments: When Fire hits, it's electric
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Track for curiosity: Fun to see point patterns, not for strategy
Related Calculators
- Craps Odds Calculator - All bet types
- Craps Pass Line Calculator - Core bet math
- Craps House Edge Calculator - Edge comparison
- Craps Odds Bet Calculator - Best bet analysis
- Expected Value Calculator - EV calculations
Conclusion
The Fire Bet is craps' ultimate lottery ticket—massive payouts for incredibly rare events. Our calculator shows the brutal reality: 20%+ house edge, 97%+ chance of losing each bet, and odds of 6,000:1 against hitting all six points. Play it for entertainment with minimal stakes, never as strategy. The excitement of watching a shooter chase the fire is worth a dollar; betting more is just donating to the casino.
A six-point fire is one of gambling's most exciting moments—and one of its rarest. Our calculator helps you understand exactly how unlikely it is while enjoying the chase. Bet small, dream big, and never forget the math.
