Craps Fire Bet Calculator
Calculate odds, payouts, and expected value for the Fire Bet bonus wager. Understand your chances of hitting 4, 5, or all 6 unique points.
Formula:
Expected Value = Σ(Probability × Payout) - Bet AmountMaximum Win
$4,995
999:1 for 6 points
House Edge
20.44%
Expected Value
$0.57
Per $5 bet
Fire Probability
0.016%
~1 in 6,156
$
Fire bets typically max at $1-5
House Edge: 20.44%
Fire Bet Payouts
4
unique points
24:1
Win $120
1.058% chance
5
unique points
249:1
Win $1,245
0.281% chance
6
unique points
999:1
Win $4,995
0.016% chance
Complete Probability Distribution
| Unique Points | Probability | 1 in X | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 points | 59.316% | 2 | - |
| 1 point | 26.057% | 4 | - |
| 2 points | 9.788% | 10 | - |
| 3 points | 3.408% | 29 | - |
| 4 points | 1.058% | 95 | 24:1 |
| 5 points | 0.281% | 356 | 249:1 |
| 6 points🔥 | 0.016% | 6,250 | 999:1 |
Pay Table Comparison
| Pay Table | 4 Pts | 5 Pts | 6 Pts | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Pay Table | 24:1 | 249:1 | 999:1 | 20.44% |
| Generous Pay Table | 25:1 | 250:1 | 1000:1 | 19.89% |
| Tight Pay Table | 10:1 | 200:1 | 1000:1 | 24.91% |
| 5+ Points Only | 0:1 | 200:1 | 2000:1 | 25.62% |
The Six Point Numbers
To hit "The Fire," the shooter must make all six unique point numbers:
4
3 ways
2.0:1 vs 7
5
4 ways
1.5:1 vs 7
6
5 ways
1.2:1 vs 7
8
5 ways
1.2:1 vs 7
9
4 ways
1.5:1 vs 7
10
3 ways
2.0:1 vs 7
Key Facts
- 🔥Must bet before shooter's first come-out roll
- 🔥Win by making 4, 5, or 6 unique points
- 🔥6 points = "The Fire" - typically 1000:1
- 🔥House edge: 20-25% depending on pay table
- 🔥All 6 point numbers: 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
- 🔥Probability of 4+ points: ~1.36%
- 🔥Probability of all 6: ~0.016% (1 in 6,156)
- 🔥Average shooter makes ~0.68 unique points
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Fire Bet in craps?
A Fire Bet is a bonus wager that the shooter will make at least 4 unique point numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) before sevening out. The ultimate win is making all 6 points ("firing"), which typically pays 1000:1. The bet must be placed before the shooter's come-out roll.
What is the probability of hitting a Fire Bet?
The probability of making 4+ unique points (minimum payout) is about 1.36%. Making 5+ points is 0.30%, and hitting all 6 points ("the Fire") is approximately 0.016% or 1 in 6,156. The average shooter makes about 0.68 unique points per turn.
What is the house edge on Fire Bets?
Fire Bets have a high house edge, typically ranging from 20-25% depending on the pay table. This makes it one of the worst bets in the casino mathematically. However, the potential for large payouts (up to 1000:1) attracts many players.
Is the Fire Bet a good bet?
No, the Fire Bet has one of the highest house edges in the casino (20%+). It should be considered entertainment only, similar to a lottery ticket. The expected loss is about 20 cents per dollar bet. Serious players avoid this bet entirely.
Try These Examples
Quick-start with common scenarios
How this works
Calculations follow the published mathematics of the game — combinatorics for cards, probability theory for dice, and expected-value accounting for wagers. Results are verified against independent references (primarily Wizard of Odds). No calculation here is an opinion or recommendation; it is arithmetic applied to the rules of the game.
What this tool can’t do
When to consult a professional
This tool computes probability and expected value. It is not a betting system and cannot predict the outcome of any individual wager. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources
- [1]Wizard of Odds — Michael Shackleford, ASAIndustrywizardofodds.comAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Actuary; widely cited casino-game probability reference. Used for house-edge and EV verification.
- [2]National Council on Problem GamblingOfficial sourcencpgambling.orgAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Responsible-gambling guidance and 1-800-GAMBLER helpline.
Joseph OrdunaFounder & Software Engineer
Full-stack software engineer specializing in embedded systems, web architecture, and AI/ML. Founder of Practical Web Tools. Built the gesture-controlled drone IP acquired by KD Interactive (Aura Drone, sold on Amazon).
Maximum Win
$4,995
999:1 for 6 points
House Edge
20.44%
Expected Value
$0.57
Per $5 bet
Fire Probability
0.016%
~1 in 6,156