Calculate the probability, house edge, and expected value of the baccarat tie bet. Understand why this bet has one of the highest house edges in the casino.
House Edge
14.32%
Tie Probability
9.52%
1 in 10.5 hands
Payout
8:1
True: 9.5:1
Expected Loss
$1.432
Per bet
Amount wagered on tie
Most casinos pay 8:1
Affects tie probability slightly
The tie bet at 8:1 has a 14.32% house edge - one of the worst bets in the casino. For comparison, banker is 1.06% and player is 1.24%.
| Bet | Win Probability | Payout | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 45.86% | 0.95:1 | 1.06% |
| Player | 44.62% | 1:1 | 1.24% |
| Tie (8:1) | 9.52% | 8:1 | 14.36% |
| Tie (9:1) | 9.52% | 9:1 | 4.84% |
The probability of multiple ties in a row is very low:
At the standard 8:1 payout, the house edge is 14.36% - one of the worst bets in the casino. At 9:1 (rare), the edge drops to 4.84%, which is still high but more reasonable.
Ties occur about 9.52% of the time in an 8-deck game (roughly 1 in 10.5 hands). This translates to true odds of about 9.5:1, but the casino only pays 8:1.
The tie bet pays 8:1 but occurs less than 10% of the time. True fair odds would be about 9.5:1. This gap creates a massive 14.36% house edge. Even the 9:1 payout (4.84% edge) is worse than banker (1.06%) or player (1.24%).
In the very short term, yes - any single tie pays 8x your bet. But over time, the 14.36% edge will grind away your bankroll much faster than playing banker or player.
Quick-start with common scenarios
House Edge
14.32%
Tie Probability
9.52%
1 in 10.5 hands
Payout
8:1
True: 9.5:1
Expected Loss
$1.432
Per bet