Baccarat Tie Bet Calculator
Calculate the probability, house edge, and expected value of the baccarat tie bet. Understand why this bet has one of the highest house edges in the casino.
Formula:House Edge = 1 - P(tie) × (payout + 1)
House Edge
14.32%
Tie Probability
9.52%
1 in 10.5 hands
Payout
8:1
True: 9.5:1
Expected Loss
$1.432
Per bet
$
Amount wagered on tie
Most casinos pay 8:1
Affects tie probability slightly
Warning: High House Edge Bet
The tie bet at 8:1 has a 14.32% house edge - one of the worst bets in the casino. For comparison, banker is 1.06% and player is 1.24%.
Baccarat Bet Comparison
| Bet | Win Probability | Payout | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 45.86% | 0.95:1 | 1.06% |
| Player | 44.62% | 1:1 | 1.24% |
| Tie (8:1) | 9.52% | 8:1 | 14.36% |
| Tie (9:1) | 9.52% | 9:1 | 4.84% |
Consecutive Tie Probabilities
The probability of multiple ties in a row is very low:
2 ties in a row
0.9063%
1 in 110
3 ties in a row
0.0863%
1 in 1,159
4 ties in a row
0.0082%
1 in 12,175
5 ties in a row
0.0008%
1 in 127,884
Key Facts
- •Tie occurs approximately 9.52% of the time (1 in 10.5 hands)
- •Standard 8:1 payout creates 14.36% house edge
- •9:1 payout (rare) reduces edge to 4.84%
- •True fair odds would be approximately 9.5:1
- •Main game bets ignored during tie - only tie bets win
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the house edge on the baccarat tie bet?
At the standard 8:1 payout, the house edge is 14.36% - one of the worst bets in the casino. At 9:1 (rare), the edge drops to 4.84%, which is still high but more reasonable.
How often does a tie occur in baccarat?
Ties occur about 9.52% of the time in an 8-deck game (roughly 1 in 10.5 hands). This translates to true odds of about 9.5:1, but the casino only pays 8:1.
Why is the tie bet considered a bad bet?
The tie bet pays 8:1 but occurs less than 10% of the time. True fair odds would be about 9.5:1. This gap creates a massive 14.36% house edge. Even the 9:1 payout (4.84% edge) is worse than banker (1.06%) or player (1.24%).
Can the tie bet ever be profitable?
In the very short term, yes - any single tie pays 8x your bet. But over time, the 14.36% edge will grind away your bankroll much faster than playing banker or player.
Try These Examples
Quick-start with common scenarios
How this works
Calculations follow the published mathematics of the game — combinatorics for cards, probability theory for dice, and expected-value accounting for wagers. Results are verified against independent references (primarily Wizard of Odds). No calculation here is an opinion or recommendation; it is arithmetic applied to the rules of the game.
What this tool can’t do
When to consult a professional
This tool computes probability and expected value. It is not a betting system and cannot predict the outcome of any individual wager. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources
- [1]Wizard of Odds — Michael Shackleford, ASAIndustrywizardofodds.comAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Actuary; widely cited casino-game probability reference. Used for house-edge and EV verification.
- [2]National Council on Problem GamblingOfficial sourcencpgambling.orgAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Responsible-gambling guidance and 1-800-GAMBLER helpline.
Joseph OrdunaFounder & Software Engineer
Full-stack software engineer specializing in embedded systems, web architecture, and AI/ML. Founder of Practical Web Tools. Built the gesture-controlled drone IP acquired by KD Interactive (Aura Drone, sold on Amazon).
House Edge
14.32%
Tie Probability
9.52%
1 in 10.5 hands
Payout
8:1
True: 9.5:1
Expected Loss
$1.432
Per bet