Blackjack Expected Value Calculator
Calculate your expected profit or loss per hand and per session
Formula:EV = Bet × (Edge / 100)
EV Calculator
Enter your betting parameters
Basic strategy: -0.5% | Counter: +0.5% to +1.5%
Full table: 60-80 | Heads-up: 150-200
Negative Expected Value
EV Per Hand
-$1
EV Per Hour
-$40
Session EV
-$160
320 hands
Session Variance Analysis
68% Confidence Range
-$2,217 to $1,897
95% Confidence Range
-$4,274 to $3,954
Prob. of Profit (Session)
46.9%
Session Std Dev
±$2,057
Player Profiles
Compare different player scenarios
Quick Answer
Key concepts at a glance
Blackjack EV depends on your edge and bet size. With a 1% edge at $100/hand, your EV is +$1 per hand. Over 100 hands/hour, that's +$100/hour expected. Basic strategy players have -0.5% edge (EV = -$50/hour at $100/hand). Card counters aim for 0.5-1.5% edge. EV shows long-term expectation - short-term results vary wildly.
Key Facts About EV in Blackjack
Understanding long-term expectation
- EV = Bet Size × Edge/100
- Hourly EV = EV per hand × Hands per hour
- Basic strategy: ~-$50 EV per hour at $100/hand average
- Skilled counter: ~+$100 EV per hour at $100/hand average with 1% edge
- Actual results can deviate significantly from EV in short sessions
- Standard deviation in blackjack is about 1.15 per betting unit
- Need 10,000+ hands for results to approach expected value
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about blackjack EV
What does expected value mean in blackjack?
Expected value (EV) is your average profit or loss per bet over the long run. If you have a 1% edge on a $100 bet, your EV is +$1 per hand. Over 100 hands, you expect to win $100. EV doesn't guarantee this result - it's a statistical average over many thousands of hands.
What is my EV without card counting?
Playing perfect basic strategy against good rules, you face about 0.5% house edge. Your EV is -0.5% of every dollar wagered. At $100/hand for 100 hands, EV = -$50. This is the "price of entertainment" - you're expected to lose about $50 in that session.
How much can card counters expect to make?
Skilled counters typically achieve 0.5-1.5% edge. At $100 average bet, 100 hands/hour, 1% edge: EV = +$100/hour. However, variance is extreme. You might win $1,000 one session and lose $800 the next. Annual earnings require hundreds of hours and adequate bankroll.
Why do my results not match the expected value?
Short-term variance overwhelms EV. With standard deviation ~1.15 per hand, your results after 100 hands can easily be $1,000 above or below expectation. The more hands you play, the closer your results approach EV. This is why bankroll management and long-term thinking are essential.
How does bet size affect EV?
EV scales linearly with bet size. Double your bet, double your EV (positive or negative). A $200 bettor with -0.5% edge loses twice as fast as a $100 bettor. A counter with 1% edge earns twice as much at $200 but also faces twice the variance.
How this works
Calculations follow the published mathematics of the game — combinatorics for cards, probability theory for dice, and expected-value accounting for wagers. Results are verified against independent references (primarily Wizard of Odds). No calculation here is an opinion or recommendation; it is arithmetic applied to the rules of the game.
What this tool can’t do
When to consult a professional
This tool computes probability and expected value. It is not a betting system and cannot predict the outcome of any individual wager. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources
- [1]Wizard of Odds — Michael Shackleford, ASAIndustrywizardofodds.comAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Actuary; widely cited casino-game probability reference. Used for house-edge and EV verification.
- [2]National Council on Problem GamblingOfficial sourcencpgambling.orgAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Responsible-gambling guidance and 1-800-GAMBLER helpline.
Joseph OrdunaFounder & Software Engineer
Full-stack software engineer specializing in embedded systems, web architecture, and AI/ML. Founder of Practical Web Tools. Built the gesture-controlled drone IP acquired by KD Interactive (Aura Drone, sold on Amazon).