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Basic strategy: -0.5% | Counter: +0.5% to +1.5%
Full table: 60-80 | Heads-up: 150-200
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Key concepts at a glance
Blackjack EV depends on your edge and bet size. With a 1% edge at $100/hand, your EV is +$1 per hand. Over 100 hands/hour, that's +$100/hour expected. Basic strategy players have -0.5% edge (EV = -$50/hour at $100/hand). Card counters aim for 0.5-1.5% edge. EV shows long-term expectation - short-term results vary wildly.
Understanding long-term expectation
Common questions about blackjack EV
Expected value (EV) is your average profit or loss per bet over the long run. If you have a 1% edge on a $100 bet, your EV is +$1 per hand. Over 100 hands, you expect to win $100. EV doesn't guarantee this result - it's a statistical average over many thousands of hands.
Playing perfect basic strategy against good rules, you face about 0.5% house edge. Your EV is -0.5% of every dollar wagered. At $100/hand for 100 hands, EV = -$50. This is the "price of entertainment" - you're expected to lose about $50 in that session.
Skilled counters typically achieve 0.5-1.5% edge. At $100 average bet, 100 hands/hour, 1% edge: EV = +$100/hour. However, variance is extreme. You might win $1,000 one session and lose $800 the next. Annual earnings require hundreds of hours and adequate bankroll.
Short-term variance overwhelms EV. With standard deviation ~1.15 per hand, your results after 100 hands can easily be $1,000 above or below expectation. The more hands you play, the closer your results approach EV. This is why bankroll management and long-term thinking are essential.
EV scales linearly with bet size. Double your bet, double your EV (positive or negative). A $200 bettor with -0.5% edge loses twice as fast as a $100 bettor. A counter with 1% edge earns twice as much at $200 but also faces twice the variance.