Blackjack Insurance EV Calculator
Calculate the expected value of taking insurance in blackjack. Learn when insurance is profitable for card counters and why basic strategy players should always decline.
Formula:
EV = P(BJ) × Win - P(No BJ) × LossInsurance EV
-$4
-7.40% of bet
Dealer BJ Probability
30.87%
Break-even: 33.3%
✗ DECLINE INSURANCE
Bet Settings
$
Insurance bet: $50
Affects baseline probability
Card Count Adjustment (Advanced)
Standard: 96 for 6 deck(s)
Standard: 312 for 6 deck(s)
Approximate True Count: +0.0
EV Calculation Breakdown
If dealer has BJ (30.87%):+$100
If dealer doesn't (69.13%):-$50
Expected Value:-$4
Standard Insurance House Edge
7.40%
Without card counting knowledge, insurance has a 7.40% house edge in a 6-deck game. This is one of the worst bets in the casino.
Quick Answer
Insurance in blackjack is almost always a bad bet. With no card counting knowledge, insurance has a house edge of 7.4% (6-deck). On a $100 main bet, insurance costs $50 with EV of -$3.7. Only take insurance when the true count is +3 or higher in Hi-Lo counting.
Key Facts
- ✓Insurance pays 2:1 but odds of dealer blackjack are less than 1 in 3
- ✓House edge on insurance: 7.4% (6-deck) to 5.9% (single deck)
- ✓Break-even point: 1 in 3 (33.3%) dealer blackjacks needed
- ✓Actual probability: ~30.8% (6-deck) to ~31.4% (single deck)
- ✓On $25 bet, insurance EV = -$0.92 per hand
- ✓Card counters should take insurance at true count +3 or higher
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I take insurance in blackjack?
No, for basic strategy players insurance is always a bad bet. It has a 7.4% house edge in a 6-deck game. On a $100 bet, you bet $50 on insurance and expect to lose $3.70. The only exception is card counters who know when the deck is rich in tens.
What is the expected value of insurance?
Insurance pays 2:1 if the dealer has blackjack, but the probability is only about 30.8% (6-deck). You need 33.3% probability to break even. EV = (0.308 × $100) - (0.692 × $50) = $30.80 - $34.60 = -$3.80 per $50 insurance bet.
When should card counters take insurance?
In Hi-Lo counting, take insurance when the true count is +3 or higher. At TC +3, there are enough tens remaining that the probability of dealer blackjack exceeds the 33.3% break-even point. Some systems use +2.5 as the index.
Does "even money" work differently than insurance?
"Even money" when you have blackjack vs dealer Ace is mathematically identical to insurance. You're giving up the potential for a 3:2 payout ($150 on $100) for a guaranteed 1:1 ($100). Expected value of not taking even money: 0.692 × $150 = $103.80 - always better than $100 guaranteed.
Try These Examples
Quick-start with common scenarios
How this works
Calculations follow the published mathematics of the game — combinatorics for cards, probability theory for dice, and expected-value accounting for wagers. Results are verified against independent references (primarily Wizard of Odds). No calculation here is an opinion or recommendation; it is arithmetic applied to the rules of the game.
What this tool can’t do
When to consult a professional
This tool computes probability and expected value. It is not a betting system and cannot predict the outcome of any individual wager. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources
- [1]Wizard of Odds — Michael Shackleford, ASAIndustrywizardofodds.comAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Actuary; widely cited casino-game probability reference. Used for house-edge and EV verification.
- [2]National Council on Problem GamblingOfficial sourcencpgambling.orgAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Responsible-gambling guidance and 1-800-GAMBLER helpline.
Joseph OrdunaFounder & Software Engineer
Full-stack software engineer specializing in embedded systems, web architecture, and AI/ML. Founder of Practical Web Tools. Built the gesture-controlled drone IP acquired by KD Interactive (Aura Drone, sold on Amazon).
Insurance EV
-$4
-7.40% of bet
Dealer BJ Probability
30.87%
Break-even: 33.3%
✗ DECLINE INSURANCE