Calculate player projection ranges for DFS strategy
Ceiling = Projection + (1.28 × StdDev)Enter projection and variance
Ceiling and floor analysis
Range
12.8 pts
Consistency
64%
Volatility
High
Common projection profiles
TL;DR summary
Ceiling and floor projections represent a player's upside (90th percentile outcome) and downside (10th percentile outcome). Calculate them using: Ceiling = Projection + (1.28 × Std Dev) and Floor = Projection - (1.28 × Std Dev). A player with 18 projected points and 5 std dev has a ~24 ceiling and ~12 floor.
Important things to know
Common ceiling/floor questions
Ceiling represents a player's upside - what they might score in their best 10% of outcomes. Floor represents their downside - the worst 10% of outcomes. These help you understand the range of possible outcomes beyond just the median projection.
Using statistical probability: Ceiling = Projection + (1.28 × Standard Deviation), Floor = Projection - (1.28 × Standard Deviation). The 1.28 multiplier represents roughly the 10th/90th percentile of a normal distribution.
In cash games (50/50s, double-ups), prioritize floor - you need consistent players to beat the median. In GPPs (tournaments), prioritize ceiling - you need upside to beat thousands of opponents and hit the top payouts.
Consistency rating of 70+ indicates a tight projection range (safe for cash). 50-70 is moderate variance. Below 50 indicates high volatility - risky for cash but potentially valuable for GPPs if the ceiling is high enough.
In NFL: QBs are most consistent, followed by bellcow RBs. WRs have highest variance due to TD dependency. TEs vary widely. In NBA, players with higher usage rates tend to be more consistent. In MLB, pitchers have high variance.