DFS Ceiling/Floor Calculator
Calculate player projection ranges for DFS strategy
Formula:
Ceiling = Projection + (1.28 × StdDev)Player Projection
Enter projection and variance
Projection Range
Ceiling and floor analysis
Floor
11.6
10th percentile
Projection
18.0
Median
Ceiling
24.4
90th percentile
Range
12.8 pts
Consistency
64%
Volatility
High
Recommended
Versatile - Both Formats
Outcome Distribution
9.8
26.2
P5
9.8
Floor
11.6
Median
18.0
Ceiling
24.4
P95
26.2
Usage: Moderate volatility - consider game context and ownership when deciding format.
Player Archetypes
Common projection profiles
Quick Answer
TL;DR summary
Ceiling and floor projections represent a player's upside (90th percentile outcome) and downside (10th percentile outcome). Calculate them using: Ceiling = Projection + (1.28 × Std Dev) and Floor = Projection - (1.28 × Std Dev). A player with 18 projected points and 5 std dev has a ~24 ceiling and ~12 floor.
Key Facts About Ceiling/Floor
Important things to know
- Ceiling = Projection + (1.28 × Standard Deviation)
- Floor = Projection - (1.28 × Standard Deviation)
- These represent ~10th and ~90th percentile outcomes
- Cash games prioritize high-floor players for consistency
- GPPs require high-ceiling players for tournament upside
- Coefficient of variation (CV) = StdDev / Mean measures volatility
- Stack multiple high-ceiling players for maximum GPP upside
- Volatility is position-dependent (WRs more volatile than RBs)
Frequently Asked Questions
Common ceiling/floor questions
What do ceiling and floor mean in DFS?
Ceiling represents a player's upside - what they might score in their best 10% of outcomes. Floor represents their downside - the worst 10% of outcomes. These help you understand the range of possible outcomes beyond just the median projection.
How are ceiling and floor calculated?
Using statistical probability: Ceiling = Projection + (1.28 × Standard Deviation), Floor = Projection - (1.28 × Standard Deviation). The 1.28 multiplier represents roughly the 10th/90th percentile of a normal distribution.
When should I prioritize floor vs ceiling?
In cash games (50/50s, double-ups), prioritize floor - you need consistent players to beat the median. In GPPs (tournaments), prioritize ceiling - you need upside to beat thousands of opponents and hit the top payouts.
What is a good consistency rating?
Consistency rating of 70+ indicates a tight projection range (safe for cash). 50-70 is moderate variance. Below 50 indicates high volatility - risky for cash but potentially valuable for GPPs if the ceiling is high enough.
How does volatility vary by position?
In NFL: QBs are most consistent, followed by bellcow RBs. WRs have highest variance due to TD dependency. TEs vary widely. In NBA, players with higher usage rates tend to be more consistent. In MLB, pitchers have high variance.
How this works
Calculations follow the published mathematics of the game — combinatorics for cards, probability theory for dice, and expected-value accounting for wagers. Results are verified against independent references (primarily Wizard of Odds). No calculation here is an opinion or recommendation; it is arithmetic applied to the rules of the game.
What this tool can’t do
When to consult a professional
This tool computes probability and expected value. It is not a betting system and cannot predict the outcome of any individual wager. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources
- [1]Wizard of Odds — Michael Shackleford, ASAIndustrywizardofodds.comAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Actuary; widely cited casino-game probability reference. Used for house-edge and EV verification.
- [2]National Council on Problem GamblingOfficial sourcencpgambling.orgAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Responsible-gambling guidance and 1-800-GAMBLER helpline.
Joseph OrdunaFounder & Software Engineer
Full-stack software engineer specializing in embedded systems, web architecture, and AI/ML. Founder of Practical Web Tools. Built the gesture-controlled drone IP acquired by KD Interactive (Aura Drone, sold on Amazon).