DFS Correlation Calculator
Calculate stack variance and ceiling boost from player correlations
Formula:
Combined Variance = Var(A) + Var(B) + 2×Correlation×StdDev(A)×StdDev(B)Correlation Analysis
Enter two players to analyze stack potential
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Common values:
Stack Analysis
Combined projection and variance
Correlation
+0.35
Strong Positive
Variance Boost
+35.0%
Ceiling Boost
Stack Projection
35.0 pts
Stack Ceiling
47.6 pts
Stack Floor
22.4 pts
Ceiling Boost
+1.8 pts
Variance Comparison
Without Correlation
±8.5 pts
With Correlation
±9.9 pts
Stack Assessment: Excellent GPP stack - high correlated upside for tournaments
Correlation Examples
Common DFS correlation scenarios
Quick Answer
TL;DR summary
Correlation measures how two players' scores move together. Positive correlation (0.2-0.5) means both benefit from the same game script - ideal for stacks. Negative correlation (-0.1 to -0.3) means one benefits when the other doesn't. Understanding correlation is essential for building GPP lineups with correlated upside.
Key Correlation Facts
Important things to know
- Correlation ranges from -1 (opposite) to +1 (identical movement)
- QB-WR same-team correlation averages 0.30-0.40
- Stacking positively correlated players increases variance
- Negative correlations are useful for fading scenarios
- Game stacks (both teams) have mild positive correlation
- Higher variance lineups perform better in large GPPs
- Cash games prefer low/no correlation for consistency
- Correlation compounds: 3-player stacks have higher combined variance
Frequently Asked Questions
Common correlation questions
What is correlation in DFS?
Correlation measures how two players' fantasy scores move together. A correlation of +0.35 means when Player A exceeds their projection, Player B likely does too. This relationship is driven by shared game script (both benefit from pass-heavy game flow).
How does correlation affect lineup variance?
Positive correlation increases lineup variance (ceiling and floor). When correlated players boom together, your lineup explodes. When they bust together, your lineup tanks. This variance is valuable in GPPs where you need to beat thousands of entries.
What are the most correlated positions in NFL?
QB-WR from the same team (~0.35 correlation), QB-TE (~0.25), and same-team passing game players. Game stacks (QB + opposing pass catchers) have ~0.20 correlation as shootouts benefit all passing game players.
Should I use correlation in cash games?
Generally no. Cash games reward consistency over upside. Independent player selections provide a more stable floor. Save correlation stacks for GPPs where you need to differentiate from the field and hit ceilings.
How do I use negative correlations?
Negative correlations create natural hedges. If you roster a DST, consider fading their opponent's RB (negative correlation). If you roster a pitcher, you're naturally fading opposing hitters. Use this for game theory plays.
How this works
Calculations follow the published mathematics of the game — combinatorics for cards, probability theory for dice, and expected-value accounting for wagers. Results are verified against independent references (primarily Wizard of Odds). No calculation here is an opinion or recommendation; it is arithmetic applied to the rules of the game.
What this tool can’t do
When to consult a professional
This tool computes probability and expected value. It is not a betting system and cannot predict the outcome of any individual wager. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources
- [1]Wizard of Odds — Michael Shackleford, ASAIndustrywizardofodds.comAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Actuary; widely cited casino-game probability reference. Used for house-edge and EV verification.
- [2]National Council on Problem GamblingOfficial sourcencpgambling.orgAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Responsible-gambling guidance and 1-800-GAMBLER helpline.
Joseph OrdunaFounder & Software Engineer
Full-stack software engineer specializing in embedded systems, web architecture, and AI/ML. Founder of Practical Web Tools. Built the gesture-controlled drone IP acquired by KD Interactive (Aura Drone, sold on Amazon).