DFS Correlation Calculator

Calculate stack variance and ceiling boost from player correlations

Formula:Combined Variance = Var(A) + Var(B) + 2×Correlation×StdDev(A)×StdDev(B)

Correlation Analysis

Enter two players to analyze stack potential

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Common values:

Stack Analysis

Combined projection and variance

Correlation
+0.35
Strong Positive
Variance Boost
+35.0%
Ceiling Boost

Stack Projection

35.0 pts

Stack Ceiling

47.6 pts

Stack Floor

22.4 pts

Ceiling Boost

+1.8 pts

Variance Comparison

Without Correlation
±8.5 pts
With Correlation
±9.9 pts
Stack Assessment: Excellent GPP stack - high correlated upside for tournaments

Correlation Examples

Common DFS correlation scenarios

Quick Answer

TL;DR summary

Correlation measures how two players' scores move together. Positive correlation (0.2-0.5) means both benefit from the same game script - ideal for stacks. Negative correlation (-0.1 to -0.3) means one benefits when the other doesn't. Understanding correlation is essential for building GPP lineups with correlated upside.

Key Correlation Facts

Important things to know

  • Correlation ranges from -1 (opposite) to +1 (identical movement)
  • QB-WR same-team correlation averages 0.30-0.40
  • Stacking positively correlated players increases variance
  • Negative correlations are useful for fading scenarios
  • Game stacks (both teams) have mild positive correlation
  • Higher variance lineups perform better in large GPPs
  • Cash games prefer low/no correlation for consistency
  • Correlation compounds: 3-player stacks have higher combined variance

Frequently Asked Questions

Common correlation questions

What is correlation in DFS?

Correlation measures how two players' fantasy scores move together. A correlation of +0.35 means when Player A exceeds their projection, Player B likely does too. This relationship is driven by shared game script (both benefit from pass-heavy game flow).

How does correlation affect lineup variance?

Positive correlation increases lineup variance (ceiling and floor). When correlated players boom together, your lineup explodes. When they bust together, your lineup tanks. This variance is valuable in GPPs where you need to beat thousands of entries.

What are the most correlated positions in NFL?

QB-WR from the same team (~0.35 correlation), QB-TE (~0.25), and same-team passing game players. Game stacks (QB + opposing pass catchers) have ~0.20 correlation as shootouts benefit all passing game players.

Should I use correlation in cash games?

Generally no. Cash games reward consistency over upside. Independent player selections provide a more stable floor. Save correlation stacks for GPPs where you need to differentiate from the field and hit ceilings.

How do I use negative correlations?

Negative correlations create natural hedges. If you roster a DST, consider fading their opponent's RB (negative correlation). If you roster a pitcher, you're naturally fading opposing hitters. Use this for game theory plays.