Calculate the likelihood of experiencing a specific downswing size based on your win rate, variance, and sample size to prepare for inevitable variance.
Your expected win rate in big blinds per 100 hands
Typical: 70-90 for cash, 100-150 for tournaments
Sample size to analyze
Downswing amount in big blinds (e.g., 1000 = 10 BI)
For converting to currency values
Quick-start with common scenarios
Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations
Your initial capital
Your expected advantage
Percentage of bankroll per bet
Total bets to simulate
A downswing is a period where your results are significantly below expectation. They're mathematically inevitable in poker and happen to every player.
The Math: We use the normal distribution to calculate probability. Your results follow a bell curve centered on your expected value, with spread determined by standard deviation.
Sample Size Matters: In small samples (under 30,000 hands), even large downswings are normal. A 3 BB/100 winner has about a 30% chance of being down after 20,000 hands.
Mental Game: Understanding that downswings are expected helps maintain emotional stability. When you know a 10-buyin downswing has a 15% chance of occurring, it's easier to stay focused on making good decisions rather than results.
Practical Advice: Always have a bankroll that can withstand a 20-30 buyin downswing. If you can't handle the swings at your stakes, move down.
For a typical 5 BB/100 winner with 80 BB/100 SD, a 10 buyin downswing will happen roughly once every 50,000-100,000 hands. Even excellent players averaging $25/hour experience 1000 BB ($5,000 at $2/$5) downswings.
Downswings are a mathematical certainty in poker, not a sign of bad play. A 3 BB/100 winner has about a 40% chance of being down after 10,000 hands. Only after 100,000+ hands do results become statistically meaningful.
Downswing duration varies wildly. A 20 buyin downswing for a 5 BB/100 winner might last 30,000-50,000 hands (300-500 hours of play). Tournament players can have year-long downswings due to extreme variance.
If your bankroll drops below 20 buyins for your current stake, yes. This protects your bankroll and reduces stress. Many pros use a 'stop-loss' rule - move down after losing 3-5 buyins in a session.
Focus on making good decisions, not results. Track your decisions separately from outcomes. Take breaks when frustrated. Remember that downswings are part of the game and mathematically expected.