Calculate fold equity and determine if bluffs and semi-bluffs are profitable
Evaluate bluffs and semi-bluffs
How often you expect opponent to fold
0% for pure bluffs, higher for semi-bluffs
This bet loses money long-term
Expected Value
-$63
Break-even
42.9%
Fold Equity
$50
Bet/Pot Ratio
75%
Common bluff and semi-bluff scenarios
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Understanding bluff profitability
TL;DR summary
Fold equity is the value gained when opponents fold to your bet. Formula: Fold Equity = Fold% × Pot. If you bet $100 into a $100 pot and opponent folds 60% of the time, your fold equity is 0.60 × $100 = $60. Combined with your equity when called, this determines if a bluff is profitable. Break-even fold frequency = Bet Size ÷ (Pot + Bet).
Important things to know
Common questions about fold equity
Fold equity is the portion of your expected value that comes from opponents folding to your bet. If you bet $100 into a $100 pot and opponents fold 50% of the time, you win $100 half the time just from folds. This is fold equity of $50.
Break-even fold% = Bet Size ÷ (Pot + Bet). For a $50 bet into a $100 pot: $50 ÷ $150 = 33.3%. If opponents fold more than 33.3%, your bluff is immediately profitable regardless of your cards.
A semi-bluff is a bet with a drawing hand that can win if called (via improvement) or if opponents fold. You have both equity when called and fold equity. Example: Betting a flush draw - you can win by hitting the flush OR by making them fold.
Use fold equity calculations for: (1) Deciding whether to bluff, (2) Sizing your bluffs optimally, (3) Evaluating semi-bluffs with drawing hands, (4) Understanding when aggressive plays are +EV even with weak hands.
Consider: (1) Opponent's range - weaker ranges fold more, (2) Position - late position folds more to aggression, (3) Stack sizes - short stacks commit lighter, (4) Board texture - scary boards get more folds, (5) Player type - tight players fold more than calling stations.