Poker Fold Equity Calculator

Calculate fold equity and determine if bluffs and semi-bluffs are profitable

Formula:EV = (Fold% × Pot) + (Call% × Equity × Total Pot) - (Call% × (1-Equity) × Bet) - Bet

Fold Equity Calculator

Evaluate bluffs and semi-bluffs

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How often you expect opponent to fold

%

0% for pure bluffs, higher for semi-bluffs

-EV Bluff

This bet loses money long-term

Expected Value
-$63
Break-even: 42.9% folds needed
You estimated: 50% folds

EV Breakdown

When opponent folds (50%)+$50
When called & you lose (50.0%)-$38
Your bet investment-$75
Net EV-$63

Fold Frequency Analysis

Break-even Fold%42.9%
Estimated Fold%50%

Expected Value

-$63

Break-even

42.9%

Fold Equity

$50

Bet/Pot Ratio

75%

Unprofitable bluff. You need 42.9% folds but only expect 50%. Consider a smaller bet size or pick a better spot.

Try These Examples

Common bluff and semi-bluff scenarios

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How Fold Equity Works

Understanding bluff profitability

Example: Semi-Bluff with Flush Draw

  • 1. Situation: Pot is $100, you bet $75
  • 2. Your draw: Flush draw = ~35% equity when called
  • 3. Estimate: Opponent folds 40% of the time
  • 4. Fold EV: 0.40 × $100 = $40
  • 5. Call EV (win): 0.60 × 0.35 × $250 = $52.5
  • 6. Call EV (lose): 0.60 × 0.65 × $75 = -$29.25
  • 7. Total EV: $40 + $52.5 - $29.25 - $75 = -$11.75
  • 8. Result: -EV in this case, need higher fold% or more equity

Quick Answer

TL;DR summary

Fold equity is the value gained when opponents fold to your bet. Formula: Fold Equity = Fold% × Pot. If you bet $100 into a $100 pot and opponent folds 60% of the time, your fold equity is 0.60 × $100 = $60. Combined with your equity when called, this determines if a bluff is profitable. Break-even fold frequency = Bet Size ÷ (Pot + Bet).

Key Facts About Fold Equity

Important things to know

  • Fold equity = expected value from opponents folding
  • Formula: FE = Fold Frequency × Current Pot
  • Break-even fold% = Bet / (Pot + Bet)
  • Example: $50 bet into $100 pot needs 33% folds to break even
  • Semi-bluffs combine fold equity + equity when called
  • Pure bluffs rely entirely on fold equity
  • Fold equity makes aggression profitable in poker
  • Consider opponent tendencies when estimating fold frequency

Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about fold equity

What is fold equity in poker?

Fold equity is the portion of your expected value that comes from opponents folding to your bet. If you bet $100 into a $100 pot and opponents fold 50% of the time, you win $100 half the time just from folds. This is fold equity of $50.

How do I calculate break-even fold frequency?

Break-even fold% = Bet Size ÷ (Pot + Bet). For a $50 bet into a $100 pot: $50 ÷ $150 = 33.3%. If opponents fold more than 33.3%, your bluff is immediately profitable regardless of your cards.

What is a semi-bluff?

A semi-bluff is a bet with a drawing hand that can win if called (via improvement) or if opponents fold. You have both equity when called and fold equity. Example: Betting a flush draw - you can win by hitting the flush OR by making them fold.

When should I use fold equity?

Use fold equity calculations for: (1) Deciding whether to bluff, (2) Sizing your bluffs optimally, (3) Evaluating semi-bluffs with drawing hands, (4) Understanding when aggressive plays are +EV even with weak hands.

How do I estimate opponent fold frequency?

Consider: (1) Opponent's range - weaker ranges fold more, (2) Position - late position folds more to aggression, (3) Stack sizes - short stacks commit lighter, (4) Board texture - scary boards get more folds, (5) Player type - tight players fold more than calling stations.