Scratch Off EV Calculator

Calculate the expected value of scratch-off lottery tickets

Formula:EV = Σ(Prize × 1/Odds) - Cost

Ticket Details

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EV Analysis

Expected value breakdown

Expected Value Per Ticket
-$3
Lose $3 on average

Return Rate

35.5%

House Edge

64.5%

Win Any Prize

1 in 5.3

Win Probability

18.7%

Reality Check: A 36% return rate means for every $100 spent, you get back $36 on average. The lottery keeps $65.

Sample Tickets

Quick-start with common scenarios

Quick Answer

Scratch-off EV = Sum of (Prize × 1/Odds) - Ticket Cost. Most scratch-offs return 60-70%, meaning for a $1 ticket, you get back $0.60-$0.70 on average. The house edge is 30-40%. Better than some games, but still negative EV. Higher-priced tickets often have slightly better return rates.

Key Facts

  • Most scratch-offs have 60-70% return rate (30-40% house edge)
  • Higher denomination tickets often have better odds
  • Overall odds of winning ANY prize are usually 1 in 3 to 1 in 5
  • State lotteries publish exact odds on ticket backs
  • Top prizes are often already claimed - check before buying
  • Unclaimed prize reports are available online for most states
  • "Guaranteed winner" packs don't improve mathematical EV
  • Buying in bulk doesn't change the odds

FAQ

How do I calculate scratch-off expected value?

Add up each (Prize Amount × Probability of Winning) for all prize tiers, then subtract the ticket cost. For example: ($100 × 1/1000) + ($10 × 1/50) + ($2 × 1/10) - $1 = $0.10 + $0.20 + $0.20 - $1 = -$0.50 EV.

Which scratch-off tickets have the best odds?

Generally, higher-priced tickets ($10-$30) have slightly better return rates (65-70% vs 60-65%). However, no scratch-off has positive expected value. Check your state lottery website for remaining prizes - games with more top prizes left are better.

Can I use strategy to win at scratch-offs?

Mathematical strategy is limited. You can: 1) Check remaining prizes online before buying, 2) Avoid games where top prizes are claimed, 3) Buy higher-denomination tickets for slightly better odds. But no strategy overcomes the house edge.

What are the odds of winning anything on a scratch-off?

Most scratch-offs have overall odds of 1 in 3 to 1 in 5 for winning ANY prize (including breaking even). However, most wins are small - just getting your money back or winning $1-$2. Big prizes remain very rare.