Scratch Off EV Calculator
Calculate the expected value of scratch-off lottery tickets
Formula:
EV = Σ(Prize × 1/Odds) - CostTicket Details
Enter ticket cost and prize structure
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EV Analysis
Expected value breakdown
Expected Value Per Ticket
-$3
Lose $3 on average
Return Rate
35.5%
House Edge
64.5%
Win Any Prize
1 in 5.3
Win Probability
18.7%
Reality Check: A 36% return rate means for every $100 spent, you get back $36 on average. The lottery keeps $65.
Sample Tickets
Quick-start with common scenarios
Quick Answer
Scratch-off EV = Sum of (Prize × 1/Odds) - Ticket Cost. Most scratch-offs return 60-70%, meaning for a $1 ticket, you get back $0.60-$0.70 on average. The house edge is 30-40%. Better than some games, but still negative EV. Higher-priced tickets often have slightly better return rates.
Key Facts
- Most scratch-offs have 60-70% return rate (30-40% house edge)
- Higher denomination tickets often have better odds
- Overall odds of winning ANY prize are usually 1 in 3 to 1 in 5
- State lotteries publish exact odds on ticket backs
- Top prizes are often already claimed - check before buying
- Unclaimed prize reports are available online for most states
- "Guaranteed winner" packs don't improve mathematical EV
- Buying in bulk doesn't change the odds
FAQ
How do I calculate scratch-off expected value?
Add up each (Prize Amount × Probability of Winning) for all prize tiers, then subtract the ticket cost. For example: ($100 × 1/1000) + ($10 × 1/50) + ($2 × 1/10) - $1 = $0.10 + $0.20 + $0.20 - $1 = -$0.50 EV.
Which scratch-off tickets have the best odds?
Generally, higher-priced tickets ($10-$30) have slightly better return rates (65-70% vs 60-65%). However, no scratch-off has positive expected value. Check your state lottery website for remaining prizes - games with more top prizes left are better.
Can I use strategy to win at scratch-offs?
Mathematical strategy is limited. You can: 1) Check remaining prizes online before buying, 2) Avoid games where top prizes are claimed, 3) Buy higher-denomination tickets for slightly better odds. But no strategy overcomes the house edge.
What are the odds of winning anything on a scratch-off?
Most scratch-offs have overall odds of 1 in 3 to 1 in 5 for winning ANY prize (including breaking even). However, most wins are small - just getting your money back or winning $1-$2. Big prizes remain very rare.
How this works
Calculations follow the published mathematics of the game — combinatorics for cards, probability theory for dice, and expected-value accounting for wagers. Results are verified against independent references (primarily Wizard of Odds). No calculation here is an opinion or recommendation; it is arithmetic applied to the rules of the game.
What this tool can’t do
When to consult a professional
This tool computes probability and expected value. It is not a betting system and cannot predict the outcome of any individual wager. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources
- [1]Wizard of Odds — Michael Shackleford, ASAIndustrywizardofodds.comAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Actuary; widely cited casino-game probability reference. Used for house-edge and EV verification.
- [2]National Council on Problem GamblingOfficial sourcencpgambling.orgAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Responsible-gambling guidance and 1-800-GAMBLER helpline.
Joseph OrdunaFounder & Software Engineer
Full-stack software engineer specializing in embedded systems, web architecture, and AI/ML. Founder of Practical Web Tools. Built the gesture-controlled drone IP acquired by KD Interactive (Aura Drone, sold on Amazon).