Sure Bet Calculator
Calculate arbitrage opportunities and guaranteed profit from different bookmakers
Market Setup
Configure the arbitrage calculation
Odds from Different Bookmakers
Enter the best odds available for each outcome
Arbitrage Found!
6.93% guaranteed profit opportunity
Optimal Stake Distribution
Total Stake
$1,000
Arbitrage %
6.93%
Guaranteed Profit
$74
ROI
7.44%
Try These Examples
Common arbitrage scenarios
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How Sure Bets Work
Understanding arbitrage betting
Step-by-Step Example
- 1. Find odds: Player A wins @ 2.20 (Bookmaker 1), Player B wins @ 2.10 (Bookmaker 2)
- 2. Calculate implied probability: (1/2.20) + (1/2.10) = 45.45% + 47.62% = 93.07%
- 3. Confirm arbitrage: 93.07% < 100% = Yes! Arbitrage exists
- 4. Calculate stakes: On $1000 total: $488.37 on A, $511.63 on B
- 5. Guaranteed profit: Either outcome returns ~$1074.42 = $74.42 profit
Arb% = 100 - (100/odds1 + 100/odds2)
If result > 0, arbitrage exists
Stake = TotalStake × (1/odds) / Σ(1/odds)
Ensures equal returns regardless of outcome
Quick Answer
TL;DR summary
A sure bet (arbitrage) exists when the combined implied probabilities from different bookmakers total less than 100%. For two outcomes with decimal odds 2.20 and 2.10: Implied Prob = (1/2.20) + (1/2.10) = 45.45% + 47.62% = 93.07%. Since 93.07% < 100%, this is a 6.93% arbitrage. On a $1000 total stake, you'd profit ~$69.30 guaranteed.
Key Facts About Sure Bets
Important things to know
- Arbitrage exists when total implied probability < 100%
- The profit margin equals 100% minus total implied probability
- Stakes must be distributed inversely to odds to guarantee equal returns
- Sure bets typically offer 1-5% profit margins
- Bookmakers actively limit arbitrage bettors
- Odds can change quickly - execute both sides immediately
- Account for betting limits when calculating maximum arbitrage profit
- Different bookmaker limits may prevent optimal stake distribution
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about arbitrage betting
What is a sure bet or arbitrage?
A sure bet (also called arbitrage, arb, or surebet) is a betting strategy where you place bets on all possible outcomes of an event across different bookmakers, guaranteeing a profit regardless of the result. This works when the combined implied probabilities of all outcomes total less than 100%.
How do I calculate if an arbitrage opportunity exists?
Convert all odds to implied probabilities (1/decimal odds × 100), then sum them. If the total is less than 100%, an arbitrage exists. The profit percentage equals 100% minus the total implied probability. For example, if outcomes sum to 95%, you have a 5% guaranteed profit margin.
How much should I stake on each outcome?
Stake inversely proportional to the odds to guarantee equal returns. Stake on Outcome A = (Total Stake × Implied Prob of A) / Total Implied Probability. This ensures you win the same amount regardless of which outcome hits.
Why do bookmakers allow arbitrage?
Bookmakers don't intentionally allow it - arbitrage opportunities arise from price discrepancies between different bookmakers. Each bookmaker prices events independently based on their own liability and information. These gaps create temporary arbitrage windows.
What are the risks of arbitrage betting?
Risks include: account limitations/closures by bookmakers, odds changing before placing all bets, palpable error rules voiding winning bets, and betting limits preventing optimal stakes. Always read bookmaker terms carefully.
How much profit can I expect from arbitrage?
Typical arbitrage opportunities offer 1-5% profit margins. A 3% margin on $1,000 total stake yields $30 profit. While individual profits are small, they're guaranteed. Professional arbers may process hundreds of bets monthly.