Video Poker EV Calculator
Calculate your expected value, expected loss, and profit probability for video poker sessions. Compare different games and optimize your play.
Formula:EV = Total Wagered × (Expected Return - 1)
Expected Loss
$14
$3/hour
Profit Probability
48.0%
96.8% bankroll survival
Expected Return
99.54%
House edge: 0.46%
Expected return with perfect play
$
5 coins at $0.25 = $1.25
Average: 400-700
hours
$
Amount you're willing to lose
Session Analysis
2,400
Total Hands
$3,000
Total Wagered
-$14
Expected Loss
±$270
Std Deviation
95% Confidence Range
-$544
Worst Case
+$516
Best Case
95% of sessions will fall within this range (excludes Royal Flush variance)
Video Poker Session Simulator
Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations
$
Your initial capital
%
Your expected advantage
%
Percentage of bankroll per bet
Total bets to simulate
Quick Answer
Playing 9/6 Jacks or Better at $1.25/hand (max coins) for 4 hours at 600 hands/hour: Expected loss is $13.8 with 99.54% return. A $500 bankroll has ~89% chance of lasting the session.
Key Facts
- ✓99.54% return means you lose 0.46% of total wagered over time
- ✓At 600 hands/hour with $1.25 bet, you wager $750/hour
- ✓Royal Flush jackpot can cause large positive swings
- ✓High variance means $500 bankroll can swing ±$200 in a session
- ✓Perfect strategy is required to achieve theoretical return
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I calculate expected value in video poker?▼
Expected Value = (Total Wagered × Expected Return) - Total Wagered. For example, wagering $750 on a 99.54% return machine: EV = ($750 × 0.9954) - $750 = -$3.45 expected loss per hour. This assumes perfect strategy play.
What bankroll do I need for video poker?▼
For a 4-hour session at $1.25/hand and 600 hands/hour, you need $200-$500 minimum. Video poker has high variance due to the Royal Flush, so expect swings of ±$200 even with perfect play. Bigger bankrolls reduce risk of ruin.
Why is max coins important in video poker?▼
The Royal Flush pays 250 coins for 1-4 coins, but 4,000 coins for 5 coins (max bet). That's 800-to-1 vs 250-to-1. This bonus adds about 2% to the expected return. Playing less than max coins raises the house edge from 0.46% to about 2.5%.
How does variance affect video poker sessions?▼
Video poker variance (about 19.5 for Jacks or Better) means large swings are normal. In a 2,400-hand session, you'll hit a Royal Flush about 6% of the time. Without a Royal, expect to lose $50-$100. With a Royal, you'll win $900+. Long-term results require many sessions.
Try These Examples
Quick-start with common scenarios
How this works
Calculations follow the published mathematics of the game — combinatorics for cards, probability theory for dice, and expected-value accounting for wagers. Results are verified against independent references (primarily Wizard of Odds). No calculation here is an opinion or recommendation; it is arithmetic applied to the rules of the game.
What this tool can’t do
When to consult a professional
This tool computes probability and expected value. It is not a betting system and cannot predict the outcome of any individual wager. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources
- [1]Wizard of Odds — Michael Shackleford, ASAIndustrywizardofodds.comAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Actuary; widely cited casino-game probability reference. Used for house-edge and EV verification.
- [2]National Council on Problem GamblingOfficial sourcencpgambling.orgAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Responsible-gambling guidance and 1-800-GAMBLER helpline.
Joseph OrdunaFounder & Software Engineer
Full-stack software engineer specializing in embedded systems, web architecture, and AI/ML. Founder of Practical Web Tools. Built the gesture-controlled drone IP acquired by KD Interactive (Aura Drone, sold on Amazon).
Expected Loss
$14
$3/hour
Profit Probability
48.0%
96.8% bankroll survival
Expected Return
99.54%
House edge: 0.46%