Video Poker EV Calculator

Calculate your expected value, expected loss, and profit probability for video poker sessions. Compare different games and optimize your play.

Formula:EV = Total Wagered × (Expected Return - 1)

Expected Loss

$14

$3/hour

Profit Probability

48.0%

96.8% bankroll survival

Expected Return

99.54%

House edge: 0.46%

Game Variant

Expected return with perfect play

Bet per Hand

5 coins at $0.25 = $1.25

Hands per Hour

Average: 400-700

Session Length

hours

Session Bankroll

Amount you're willing to lose

Session Analysis

2,400

Total Hands

$3,000

Total Wagered

-$14

Expected Loss

±$270

Std Deviation

95% Confidence Range

-$544

Worst Case

+$516

Best Case

95% of sessions will fall within this range (excludes Royal Flush variance)

Video Poker Session Simulator

Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations

Quick Presets

Starting Bankroll

Your initial capital

Edge

Your expected advantage

Bet Size

Percentage of bankroll per bet

Number of Bets

Total bets to simulate

Quick Answer

Playing 9/6 Jacks or Better at $1.25/hand (max coins) for 4 hours at 600 hands/hour: Expected loss is $13.8 with 99.54% return. A $500 bankroll has ~89% chance of lasting the session.

Key Facts

✓99.54% return means you lose 0.46% of total wagered over time
✓At 600 hands/hour with $1.25 bet, you wager $750/hour
✓Royal Flush jackpot can cause large positive swings
✓High variance means $500 bankroll can swing ±$200 in a session
✓Perfect strategy is required to achieve theoretical return

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I calculate expected value in video poker?▼

Expected Value = (Total Wagered × Expected Return) - Total Wagered. For example, wagering $750 on a 99.54% return machine: EV = ($750 × 0.9954) - $750 = -$3.45 expected loss per hour. This assumes perfect strategy play.

What bankroll do I need for video poker?▼

For a 4-hour session at $1.25/hand and 600 hands/hour, you need $200-$500 minimum. Video poker has high variance due to the Royal Flush, so expect swings of ±$200 even with perfect play. Bigger bankrolls reduce risk of ruin.

Why is max coins important in video poker?▼

The Royal Flush pays 250 coins for 1-4 coins, but 4,000 coins for 5 coins (max bet). That's 800-to-1 vs 250-to-1. This bonus adds about 2% to the expected return. Playing less than max coins raises the house edge from 0.46% to about 2.5%.

How does variance affect video poker sessions?▼

Video poker variance (about 19.5 for Jacks or Better) means large swings are normal. In a 2,400-hand session, you'll hit a Royal Flush about 6% of the time. Without a Royal, expect to lose $50-$100. With a Royal, you'll win $900+. Long-term results require many sessions.

Try These Examples

Quick-start with common scenarios

Expected Loss

$14

$3/hour

Profit Probability

48.0%

96.8% bankroll survival

Expected Return

99.54%

House edge: 0.46%