Calculate variance, standard deviation, and expected outcome ranges for video poker sessions. Understand how volatility affects your bankroll and results.
Game Variance
19.51
Low variance
Session Std Dev
$270
Expected swing size
Profit Probability
48.0%
Royal Probability
5.82%
Chance of hitting royal
Different games have different variance
5 coins max bet
Typical: 400-700
For variance projection
| Game | Variance | Std Dev | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6 Jacks or Better | 19.51 | 4.42 | Low |
| 8/5 Jacks or Better | 19.22 | 4.38 | Low |
| 7/5 Jacks or Better | 19.11 | 4.37 | Low |
| Full Pay Deuces Wild | 25.83 | 5.08 | Medium |
| NSUD Deuces Wild | 25.58 | 5.06 | Medium |
| 10/7 Double Bonus | 28.26 | 5.32 | High |
| 9/7 Double Bonus | 28.26 | 5.32 | High |
| Joker Poker Kings | 26.21 | 5.12 | Medium |
Expected loss: $14 • Most sessions fall within 2 std devs
Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations
Your initial capital
Your expected advantage
Percentage of bankroll per bet
Total bets to simulate
Variance measures how spread out your results will be around the expected value. Higher variance means bigger swings - more big wins but also more losing sessions. Jacks or Better has variance around 19.5, while Double Bonus is around 28.
Higher variance games require larger bankrolls for the same risk of ruin. For example, Double Bonus (variance 28) needs about 45% more bankroll than Jacks or Better (variance 19.5) for equivalent safety.
Standard deviation shows the typical swing size. In a session, about 68% of results fall within 1 std dev of expected, and 95% within 2 std devs. If std dev is $200, most sessions will be within ±$200 of expected loss.
Quick-start with common scenarios
Game Variance
19.51
Low variance
Session Std Dev
$270
Expected swing size
Profit Probability
48.0%
Royal Probability
5.82%
Chance of hitting royal