Video Poker Variance Calculator
Calculate variance, standard deviation, and expected outcome ranges for video poker sessions. Understand how volatility affects your bankroll and results.
Formula:σ = √(Variance × Hands) × Bet
Game Variance
19.51
Low variance
Session Std Dev
$270
Expected swing size
Profit Probability
48.0%
Royal Probability
5.82%
Chance of hitting royal
Different games have different variance
$
5 coins max bet
Typical: 400-700
hours
For variance projection
Game Variance Comparison
| Game | Variance | Std Dev | Relative Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6 Jacks or Better | 19.51 | 4.42 | Low |
| 8/5 Jacks or Better | 19.22 | 4.38 | Low |
| 7/5 Jacks or Better | 19.11 | 4.37 | Low |
| Full Pay Deuces Wild | 25.83 | 5.08 | Medium |
| NSUD Deuces Wild | 25.58 | 5.06 | Medium |
| 10/7 Double Bonus | 28.26 | 5.32 | High |
| 9/7 Double Bonus | 28.26 | 5.32 | High |
| Joker Poker Kings | 26.21 | 5.12 | Medium |
Expected Outcome Range
68% Confidence (1σ)
-$284
+$257
95% Confidence (2σ)
-$555
+$527
Expected loss: $14 • Most sessions fall within 2 std devs
Variance Simulation
Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations
$
Your initial capital
%
Your expected advantage
%
Percentage of bankroll per bet
Total bets to simulate
2,400
Total Hands
$3,000
Total Wagered
-$14
Expected Loss
48.0%
Profit Chance
Key Facts
- •Variance = Standard Deviation squared
- •Jacks or Better variance: ~19.5 (lowest among common games)
- •Double Bonus variance: ~28 (45% higher than JoB)
- •Deuces Wild variance: ~26 (medium-high)
- •Royal Flush jackpot contributes ~2 points to variance
- •68% of sessions fall within 1 standard deviation
Frequently Asked Questions
What is variance in video poker?
Variance measures how spread out your results will be around the expected value. Higher variance means bigger swings - more big wins but also more losing sessions. Jacks or Better has variance around 19.5, while Double Bonus is around 28.
How does variance affect my bankroll needs?
Higher variance games require larger bankrolls for the same risk of ruin. For example, Double Bonus (variance 28) needs about 45% more bankroll than Jacks or Better (variance 19.5) for equivalent safety.
What does standard deviation tell me?
Standard deviation shows the typical swing size. In a session, about 68% of results fall within 1 std dev of expected, and 95% within 2 std devs. If std dev is $200, most sessions will be within ±$200 of expected loss.
Try These Examples
Quick-start with common scenarios
How this works
Calculations follow the published mathematics of the game — combinatorics for cards, probability theory for dice, and expected-value accounting for wagers. Results are verified against independent references (primarily Wizard of Odds). No calculation here is an opinion or recommendation; it is arithmetic applied to the rules of the game.
What this tool can’t do
When to consult a professional
This tool computes probability and expected value. It is not a betting system and cannot predict the outcome of any individual wager. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sources
- [1]Wizard of Odds — Michael Shackleford, ASAIndustrywizardofodds.comAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Actuary; widely cited casino-game probability reference. Used for house-edge and EV verification.
- [2]National Council on Problem GamblingOfficial sourcencpgambling.orgAccessed Apr 21, 2026
Responsible-gambling guidance and 1-800-GAMBLER helpline.
Joseph OrdunaFounder & Software Engineer
Full-stack software engineer specializing in embedded systems, web architecture, and AI/ML. Founder of Practical Web Tools. Built the gesture-controlled drone IP acquired by KD Interactive (Aura Drone, sold on Amazon).
Game Variance
19.51
Low variance
Session Std Dev
$270
Expected swing size
Profit Probability
48.0%
Royal Probability
5.82%
Chance of hitting royal