Scratch Off EV Calculator: Find the Best Tickets

Not all scratch-off tickets are created equal. Our calculator analyzes prize pools, remaining tickets, and odds to reveal each game's expected value—helping you identify which tickets offer the best mathematical return.

What Is Scratch Off Expected Value?

Expected Value (EV) is the average return per dollar spent on a scratch ticket. It accounts for all prize tiers, their probabilities, and remaining prizes to show the ticket's true mathematical worth.

Quick Answer: EV = Σ(Prize × Probability) / Ticket Cost. Most scratch-offs have 60-70% EV (lose 30-40 cents per dollar). Occasionally, games with depleted small prizes but remaining jackpots have 80-90%+ EV. Check your state lottery's remaining prizes report—the best value is often in games near their end with large prizes still available.

How to Use Our EV Calculator

Use the Scratch Off EV Calculator →

Enter prize structure and remaining prizes to calculate expected value.

Step-by-Step Instructions

1. Select State/Game: Choose the scratch ticket

2. Enter Prize Tiers: All prize amounts

3. Input Remaining Prizes: Unclaimed at each tier

4. Enter Remaining Tickets: Total unsold

5. View EV: Expected return percentage

Input Fields Explained

Field	Description	Example
Ticket Cost	Purchase price	$5
Prize Tiers	All prize levels	$5 to $100,000
Remaining Prizes	Unclaimed	245,000
Remaining Tickets	Unsold estimate	1,200,000
Expected Value	Return %	67.3%
Net EV	Per dollar	-$0.33

Understanding Scratch Off Odds

Typical Prize Distribution

Prize	Odds	Contribution
Ticket price	1:8	12.5%
2× price	1:20	10%
5× price	1:50	10%
10× price	1:100	10%
Large prizes	1:10,000+	5-10%
Jackpot	1:1,000,000+	5-15%

Typical Overall Odds

Ticket Price	Win Any Prize
$1	1 in 4.5
$2	1 in 4.0
$5	1 in 3.5
$10	1 in 3.2
$20	1 in 3.0
$30	1 in 2.8

EV by Ticket Price

Typical Returns

Price	EV Range	Best Case
$1	55-65%	~70%
$2	58-68%	~75%
$5	62-72%	~80%
$10	65-75%	~85%
$20	68-78%	~90%
$30	70-80%	~95%

Why Higher Prices = Higher EV

Factor	Impact
Lower overhead %	Fixed costs spread
Better top prizes	Higher jackpot %
Better odds	More winners per ticket

Finding +EV Opportunities

When EV Exceeds 100%

Rare situations where tickets may be +EV:

Situation	Why It Happens
Jackpot heavy	Small prizes claimed, jackpot remains
End of game	Few tickets, disproportionate prizes
Promotional games	Special prize additions
Second chance	Uncounted value

Red Flags for Bad EV

Warning Sign	Meaning
All jackpots claimed	Major EV reduction
Many prizes remaining	Game not selling well
Old game, low prizes left	Picked over

How to Analyze Remaining Prizes

Step 1: Get Data

Most state lotteries publish:

• Original prize pool
• Remaining prizes by tier
• Game end date

Step 2: Estimate Remaining Tickets

Remaining Tickets ≈ (Total Printed) × (Remaining Prizes / Original Prizes)

Or use sales velocity estimates

Step 3: Calculate Current EV

Current EV = Σ(Remaining Prize × Value) / (Remaining Tickets × Price)

Real-World Examples

Example 1: Fresh Game

$10 ticket, just launched:

• Tickets printed: 5,000,000
• Tickets sold: 100,000
• Prizes claimed: Proportional
• EV: 70% (standard)

Example 2: Depleted Game

$10 ticket, 80% sold:

• Tickets remaining: 1,000,000
• All jackpots claimed
• Small prizes depleted
• EV: 55% (poor—avoid)

Example 3: Jackpot Heavy

$10 ticket, 90% sold:

• Tickets remaining: 500,000
• 2 jackpots ($100,000) remain
• Small prizes depleted
• EV: 85% (good opportunity)

Example 4: Ideal Situation

$20 ticket, 95% sold:

• Tickets remaining: 200,000
• Top prize ($500,000) unclaimed
• Strong mid-tier prizes remain
• EV: 110% (+EV rare opportunity)

State-Specific Analysis

Data Availability by State

State	Remaining Prizes	Update Frequency
Texas	Excellent	Daily
California	Good	Weekly
Florida	Good	Weekly
New York	Fair	Weekly
Others	Varies	Check lottery site

Using Lottery Websites

Info Needed	Where to Find
Prize structure	Game page
Remaining prizes	"Prizes Remaining" report
Overall odds	Back of ticket / website
Game close date	Lottery announcements

EV Calculation Deep Dive

Full EV Formula

EV = [Σ(Prize_i × Remaining_i) / Remaining_Tickets] / Ticket_Price

Example $10 ticket:
Remaining prizes value: $4,500,000
Remaining tickets: 600,000
EV = ($4,500,000 / 600,000) / $10
EV = $7.50 / $10 = 75%

Accounting for Free Tickets

Prize Type	Value
Free $10 ticket	$7.50 (75% of face)
Free $5 ticket	$3.50 (70% of face)
Second chance	$0.05-$0.50 estimated

Common Scratch Off Mistakes

1. Ignoring Remaining Prizes

Mistake: Buying without checking Problem: Jackpots may be claimed Fix: Always check lottery website first

2. Buying Newest Games

Mistake: Thinking fresh = best Problem: Standard EV, no analysis possible Fix: Look for favorable remaining prize ratios

3. Store Selection Bias

Mistake: Believing "lucky" stores matter Problem: Random distribution Fix: Buy based on game data, not location

4. Chasing After Losses

Mistake: Buying more to recover Problem: Negative EV compounds Fix: Fixed budget, walk away

Frequently Asked Questions

Which scratch-off has the best odds?

Higher-priced tickets typically have better overall odds and EV, but specific games with depleted small prizes and remaining jackpots offer the best actual value.

Should I buy multiple tickets of the same game?

If the game has favorable EV, yes. Each ticket is independent—odds don't improve buying from same roll, but good EV is good EV.

Do "lucky" stores actually win more?

No. Wins are randomly distributed. High-volume stores sell more winners because they sell more tickets, not better odds.

When is the best time to buy?

When remaining prizes analysis shows favorable EV. Often mid-to-late in a game's life when small prizes are depleted but jackpots remain.

Can scratch-offs ever be +EV?

Rarely. Most games are 60-75% EV. Occasionally, specific games with unusual remaining prize distributions exceed 100% EV.

How do I find remaining prizes?

Your state lottery website has a "remaining prizes" or "prize remaining" report. Check before every purchase.

Advanced EV Concepts

True Odds vs Published Odds

Measure	Definition
Published odds	Odds at game start
Current odds	Based on remaining prizes
Adjusted odds	Accounting for pack distribution

Roll Theory

Theory	Claim	Reality
Prizes per roll	Fixed winners per roll	Varies by game
End of roll advantage	Better odds at roll end	Usually false
Statistical clustering	Prizes cluster	Random distribution

Expected Utility

For risk-averse players:
Utility = EV - (Risk Premium × Variance)

Higher variance games may feel worse even at same EV

Pro Tips

• Check remaining prizes: Always before buying

• Higher prices usually better: But verify with data

• End of game sweet spot: When jackpots remain

• Track your purchases: Know your actual return

• Budget strictly: Negative EV adds up

Related Calculators

• Scratch Off ROI Calculator - Track performance
• Lottery Odds Calculator - General lottery odds
• Lottery EV Calculator - Draw game EV
• Expected Value Calculator - General EV
• Probability Calculator - Basic probability

Conclusion

Scratch-off expected value varies dramatically based on remaining prizes and unsold tickets. Our calculator helps you analyze any game's true mathematical return, identifying opportunities where the odds tilt more favorably. While most scratch-offs are negative EV, informed selection based on remaining prize data can significantly improve your return.

Calculate Scratch Off EV Now →

Don't buy scratch-offs blind. Our calculator turns lottery data into actionable insight, showing you exactly which games offer the best mathematical return. Check remaining prizes, calculate EV, and make informed decisions about which tickets deserve your money.