Video Poker Variance Calculator: Survive the Swings

Video poker variance determines how much your results swing around expected value. Our calculator shows standard deviation by game type, helping you size your bankroll for comfortable play and understand why short-term results can differ dramatically from long-term expectation.

What Is Video Poker Variance?

Variance measures how widely your results deviate from expected value. High variance games have bigger swings; low variance games are more consistent. Understanding variance is essential for proper bankroll management.

Quick Answer: Standard deviation for Jacks or Better is about 4.4 units per hand. Over 1,000 hands at $1, expect results to vary by ±$139 (one standard deviation) from expected. For 95% confidence, multiply by 2: ±$278. High-variance games like Deuces Wild (SD ~5.0) require 20-30% larger bankrolls than low-variance games like Jacks or Better.

How to Use Our Variance Calculator

Use the Video Poker Variance Calculator →

Enter your game type and session parameters to see variance analysis and bankroll recommendations.

Step-by-Step Instructions

1. Select Game Type: JoB, Deuces Wild, etc.

2. Enter Bet Size: Per-hand wager

3. Input Session Length: Number of hands

4. View Standard Deviation: Expected swing range

5. See Bankroll Recommendation: Safe session amount

Input Fields Explained

Field	Description	Example
Game Type	VP variant	9/6 Jacks or Better
Bet Size	Per hand	$1.25 (5 coins × $0.25)
Session Hands	Playing time	500 hands
Standard Deviation	Per-hand SD	4.42
Session SD	Total variance	$124
Recommended Bankroll	Safe amount	$375

Variance by Game Type

Standard Deviation per Hand

Game	Pay Table	SD	Variance Level
Jacks or Better	9/6	4.42	Low
Jacks or Better	8/5	4.41	Low
Bonus Poker	8/5	4.51	Low-Medium
Double Bonus	10/7	5.57	Medium-High
Double Double Bonus	10/6	6.18	High
Deuces Wild	Full Pay	4.96	Medium
Joker Poker	Kings+	4.68	Medium

Why Variance Differs

Factor	Impact on Variance
Royal frequency	Higher = Higher variance
4-of-a-kind payout	Higher = Higher variance
Low pair return	Lower = Higher variance
Overall return %	Minimal direct impact

Understanding Standard Deviation

Basic Concept

Results fall within:
±1 SD: 68% of the time
±2 SD: 95% of the time
±3 SD: 99.7% of the time

Session Variance Calculation

Session SD = Hand SD × √(Number of Hands) × Bet Size

Example (500 hands, $1.25 bet, 9/6 JoB):
Session SD = 4.42 × √500 × $1.25
Session SD = 4.42 × 22.36 × $1.25
Session SD = $123.60

Interpreting Results

Hands	SD Range (68%)	SD Range (95%)
100	±$55	±$110
500	±$124	±$248
1,000	±$175	±$350
5,000	±$392	±$784

Bankroll Recommendations

Session Bankroll

Risk Tolerance	SD Multiples	Bust Risk
Conservative	3× SD	~0.1%
Moderate	2.5× SD	~0.6%
Aggressive	2× SD	~2.3%
High Risk	1.5× SD	~6.7%

Example Session Bankrolls

500 hands, $1.25 bet, 9/6 JoB:

Tolerance	Bankroll
Conservative	$370
Moderate	$310
Aggressive	$250

Long-Term Bankroll

Goal	Calculation	Bankroll
1% RoR	Stack 100+ sessions	$25,000+
5% RoR	Stack 50 sessions	$15,000+
10% RoR	Stack 25 sessions	$8,000+

Real-World Examples

Example 1: Low Variance Session

Game: 9/6 Jacks or Better Bet: $0.25 × 5 = $1.25 Hands: 400 Expected return: 99.54%

Variance analysis:

• EV: -$2.30 (loss)
• Session SD: $110
• 68% range: -$112 to +$108
• 95% range: -$222 to +$218

Bankroll needed: $275-$330

Example 2: High Variance Session

Game: Double Double Bonus Bet: $1.25 Hands: 400 Expected return: 98.98%

Variance analysis:

• EV: -$5.10 (loss)
• Session SD: $155 (higher SD)
• 68% range: -$160 to +$150
• 95% range: -$315 to +$305

Bankroll needed: $390-$465

Example 3: Progressive Impact

Game: 9/6 JoB with $8,000 progressive (normally $4,000) Effect: Higher variance due to increased royal impact

Adjustment:

• Standard SD: 4.42
• Progressive SD: ~5.5+ (royal more valuable)
• Bankroll increase: ~25%

Downswing Probability

Expected Downswings

Downswing Size	Probability
1× daily SD	50%+
2× daily SD	16%
3× daily SD	2.3%
4× daily SD	0.3%

Recovery Time

Downswing	Avg Hands to Recover
$200	~5,000 hands
$500	~12,500 hands
$1,000	~25,000 hands

Assumes full-pay games with ~0.5% edge or break-even.

Game Selection by Variance Preference

Low Variance Players

Preference	Recommended Games
Steady play	9/6 Jacks or Better
Fewer royals	8/5 Jacks or Better
Predictable	Bonus Poker

High Variance Players

Preference	Recommended Games
Big jackpots	Double Double Bonus
Exciting swings	Triple Double Bonus
Wild card action	Deuces Wild

Match to Bankroll

Bankroll Size	Variance Tolerance
Limited ($200-500)	Low variance only
Moderate ($500-1,500)	Low to medium
Comfortable ($1,500+)	Any variance

Common Variance Mistakes

1. Ignoring Variance Differences

Mistake: Same bankroll for all games Problem: High variance games bust faster Fix: Adjust bankroll by game SD

2. Short-Term Conclusions

Mistake: "This game is rigged—I lost $200!" Problem: $200 loss is within 2 SD for most sessions Fix: Evaluate over 10,000+ hands

3. Chasing Variance

Mistake: Playing higher variance when losing Problem: Compounds bankroll problems Fix: Stick to variance level you're bankrolled for

4. Underestimating Royal Impact

Mistake: Not accounting for royal drought Problem: Royals are ~45% of JoB return Fix: Plan for 40,000+ hand royal droughts

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does variance matter for video poker?

Variance determines bankroll requirements. High variance games need bigger bankrolls to survive the same session length.

Which video poker game has lowest variance?

Jacks or Better variants have lowest variance. Bonus games and wild card games have progressively higher variance.

How long until variance evens out?

Meaningful convergence to expected value requires 50,000+ hands. Short-term (under 10,000 hands), variance dominates.

Does max bet affect variance?

Not directly. But max bet is required for full royal payout, which is already factored into variance calculations.

Can I be on a permanent downswing?

No. Mathematically, results converge to expected value. But "long-term" can mean millions of hands.

Should I change games during a downswing?

Only if switching to lower variance fits your bankroll better. Don't chase losses with higher variance.

Advanced Variance Concepts

Variance Components

Total Variance = Base Variance + Royal Variance

Royal contribution varies by pay table
Higher royal payout = Higher variance

Coefficient of Variation

CV = Standard Deviation / Expected Return

Higher CV = More volatile relative to return

Kelly Criterion for VP

Optimal Bet = (Edge / Variance) × Bankroll

For positive EV games with 100.76% return:
Edge = 0.76%, Variance = 25
Kelly = 0.0076 / 25 = 0.03% of bankroll per hand

Pro Tips

• Match variance to bankroll: Don't play DDB with JoB bankroll

• Track actual variance: Compare your swings to calculated SD

• Progressive consideration: Higher variance, plan accordingly

• Session planning: Know your SD before sitting down

• Long-term view: Judge results over 10,000+ hands minimum

Related Calculators

• Video Poker EV Calculator - Expected value
• Video Poker Pay Table Calculator - Compare games
• Video Poker Bankroll Calculator - Bankroll sizing
• Jacks or Better Calculator - JoB strategy
• Deuces Wild Calculator - Wild card strategy

Conclusion

Video poker variance determines your bankroll requirements and session experience. Our calculator shows standard deviation by game type, helping you choose games that match your risk tolerance and bankroll. Remember: short-term results are dominated by variance—judge your play over thousands of hands, not single sessions.

Calculate Your Video Poker Variance Now →

Understanding variance transforms video poker from frustrating to manageable. Know your game's SD, size your bankroll appropriately, and accept that swings are mathematical certainty—not evidence of rigged machines. Our calculator gives you the numbers you need to play confidently within your means.