Baccarat Odds Calculator: Know the Math Behind Every Bet

Baccarat is one of the casino's most elegant games—and mathematically one of the best for players. With the lowest house edges of any table game, understanding baccarat odds helps you make optimal decisions. Our free calculator shows exact probabilities for every bet type.

What Are Baccarat Odds?

Baccarat odds represent the probability of the Banker, Player, or Tie winning each hand, along with the house edge for each bet type.

Quick Answer: Banker wins 45.86% of hands, Player wins 44.62%, and Tie occurs 9.52%. The Banker bet has a 1.06% house edge (after commission), Player has 1.24%, and Tie has a crushing 14.36%. Always bet Banker for the best odds.

How to Use Our Free Baccarat Odds Calculator

Use the Baccarat Odds Calculator →

Calculate probabilities and expected value for any baccarat bet.

Step-by-Step Instructions

1. Select Bet Type: Choose Banker, Player, or Tie

2. Enter Bet Amount: Input how much you're wagering

3. View Odds: See win probability and house edge

4. Calculate EV: Understand your expected profit or loss

Input Fields Explained

Field	Description	Example
Bet Type	Banker, Player, or Tie	Banker
Bet Amount	Your wager	$100
Commission	Banker commission rate	5% (standard)

Baccarat Probability Breakdown

Core Probabilities (8-Deck Shoe)

Outcome	Probability	Hands per 100
Banker Wins	45.86%	~46
Player Wins	44.62%	~45
Tie	9.52%	~9-10

Why Banker Wins More Often

Banker acts second and follows fixed drawing rules that give a slight advantage. The third-card rules favor Banker in certain situations, resulting in the 1.24% win rate difference.

House Edge by Bet Type

Bet	House Edge	What It Means
Banker (with 5% commission)	1.06%	Lose $1.06 per $100 wagered (long-term)
Player	1.24%	Lose $1.24 per $100 wagered
Tie	14.36%	Lose $14.36 per $100 wagered

The 5% commission on Banker wins compensates for Banker's higher win rate. Even after commission, Banker is still the best bet.

Real-World Baccarat Examples

Example 1: Banker Bet Math

You bet $100 on Banker.

Possible Outcomes:

• Win (45.86%): Win $100, minus 5% commission = $95 profit
• Lose to Player (44.62%): Lose $100
• Tie (9.52%): Push (money back)

Expected Value:

EV = (0.4586 × $95) + (0.4462 × -$100) + (0.0952 × $0)
EV = $43.57 - $44.62 + $0 = -$1.05

House edge: -$1.05 / $100 = 1.05% (rounds to 1.06%)

Example 2: Tie Bet Analysis

You bet $20 on Tie (pays 8:1).

Expected Value:

EV = (0.0952 × $160) + (0.9048 × -$20)
EV = $15.23 - $18.10 = -$2.87

House edge: $2.87 / $20 = 14.35%

Conclusion: Tie bets lose nearly 15% of your money long-term. Never bet Tie.

Example 3: Commission-Free Baccarat

Some casinos offer "EZ Baccarat" with no commission on Banker wins, but Banker wins on 6 push (or pay 50%).

Standard rules push on 6:

• House edge increases to about 1.46%

Still better than Player (1.24%) in some versions. Always check specific rules.

Baccarat vs. Other Casino Games

Game	Best House Edge
Baccarat (Banker)	1.06%
Blackjack (with strategy)	0.5%
Craps (Pass + Odds)	0.8%
Roulette (European)	2.70%
Slots	2-15%

Baccarat offers some of the best odds without requiring any strategy decisions.

Common Baccarat Side Bets

Side bets have much higher house edges—avoid them:

Side Bet	Typical House Edge
Player Pair	10.36%
Banker Pair	10.36%
Either Pair	14.54%
Perfect Pair	25.63%
Big (5+ cards total)	4.35%
Small (4 cards total)	5.27%
Dragon Bonus	2.65-9.37%

The Dragon Bonus has the best side bet odds but still worse than the main bets.

Baccarat Betting Strategy

Optimal Strategy: Always Bet Banker

The mathematically optimal strategy is simple: always bet Banker. It has the lowest house edge.

Why don't casinos care?

• Commission makes Banker profitable for the house
• Players get bored and switch to Player/Tie
• Side bets recover casino edge
• Baccarat volume is enormous

What About Betting Systems?

Martingale, Fibonacci, Paroli, etc.: No betting system changes the fundamental house edge. Systems only change variance patterns. You'll still lose 1.06% on Banker bets regardless of your staking pattern.

Trend following: Tracking past results (roadmaps) is tradition but mathematically useless. Each hand is independent.

The Commission Math

Without commission, Banker would have a player advantage of about 1.4%:

Banker with 0% commission: -1.40% (player wins)
Banker with 5% commission: +1.06% (house wins)

The 5% commission perfectly swings the edge to the house while keeping Banker as the best player bet.

Reduced Commission Tables

Some casinos offer 4% or 3% commission:

• 4% commission: ~0.6% house edge on Banker
• 3% commission: ~0.14% house edge on Banker (rare, amazing value!)

Always seek low-commission games.

Common Baccarat Mistakes

1. Betting Tie: The 14.36% house edge is brutal. Tie bets should never be made regardless of "streaks" or "due" patterns.

2. Ignoring Commission: Forgetting that Banker wins pay 0.95:1, not 1:1. Factor commission into your bankroll planning.

3. Pattern Chasing: Tracking "roads" and patterns is entertaining but mathematically meaningless. Each hand is independent.

4. Playing Side Bets: Side bets are where casinos make their real money. Main bets only.

5. Switching Bets Randomly: Switching between Banker and Player doesn't help. If anything, stick with Banker for the lower edge.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Banker always the best bet?

Yes. Even with 5% commission, Banker at 1.06% house edge beats Player at 1.24%. The only exception is commission-free variants with altered rules—always check specific game mechanics.

Why do people bet Player if Banker is better?

Psychology. Players don't want to "bet against themselves" or pay commission. Some believe in patterns and switch bets. None of these are mathematically sound reasons.

Can I beat baccarat long-term?

Without cheating or exploiting errors, no. The house edge ensures long-term losses. However, baccarat's low edge means losses are minimal compared to most casino games.

What about card counting in baccarat?

Card counting exists for baccarat but provides tiny edges (0.01-0.10% at best) that aren't practically exploitable. Not worth the effort compared to blackjack.

How does tie bet affect the house edge?

Tie bets don't change Banker/Player edges—they're separate bets. But making tie bets dramatically increases your overall expected loss per session.

Is mini-baccarat different from big baccarat?

The math is identical. Mini-baccarat is faster-paced and lower minimum bets. Big baccarat (high-limit rooms) has ritual card squeezing and slower pace. Same probabilities.

Baccarat Expected Loss Calculator

Bet	Amount	Hands/Hour	House Edge	Expected Hourly Loss
Banker	$100	60	1.06%	$63.60
Player	$100	60	1.24%	$74.40
Tie	$100	60	14.36%	$861.60

At 60 hands per hour, Tie betting costs over 10× more than Banker betting!

Pro Tips for Baccarat Players

• Always Bet Banker: Don't overthink it. Banker has the best odds, period.

• Never Bet Tie: The 8:1 payout looks attractive but doesn't compensate for the 9.52% probability.

• Skip Side Bets: Main game only. Side bets dramatically increase house edge.

• Find Low Commission: 4% or 3% commission tables are rare but excellent value.

• Set Win/Loss Limits: Baccarat is negative EV. Set strict limits and treat it as entertainment.

Related Casino Calculators

• Baccarat House Edge Calculator - Compare variants
• Baccarat EV Calculator - Expected value analysis
• Baccarat Bankroll Calculator - Session requirements
• Baccarat Commission Calculator - Net profit calculation
• Baccarat Side Bets Calculator - Side bet analysis

Conclusion

Baccarat offers some of the best odds in the casino with minimal decisions required. Bet Banker, avoid Tie, skip side bets—that's the entire optimal strategy. Our calculator shows exactly why this simple approach minimizes your expected losses.

Calculate Your Baccarat Odds Now →

Enjoy the elegance of baccarat while knowing the exact math behind every bet. It's one of the few casino games where the house edge is genuinely low—as long as you bet correctly.