Sure Bet Calculator: Lock In Risk-Free Profits

Sure bets (surebets) guarantee profit regardless of outcome by exploiting odds differences across bookmakers. Our calculator identifies opportunities, calculates exact stakes, and shows guaranteed returns for any sure bet scenario.

What Is a Sure Bet?

A sure bet occurs when combined implied probabilities across all outcomes at different bookmakers total less than 100%, guaranteeing profit no matter what happens.

Quick Answer: A sure bet (surebet/arb) exists when you can cover all outcomes profitably. If Book A has Team 1 at 2.10 (47.6%) and Book B has Team 2 at 2.05 (48.8%), total = 96.4%. Betting both proportionally guarantees ~3.6% profit. The calculator determines exact stakes for equal returns.

How to Use Our Sure Bet Calculator

Use the Sure Bet Calculator →

Enter odds from different books to identify and calculate sure bets.

Step-by-Step Instructions

1. Enter Outcome 1 Odds: Best odds for first outcome

2. Enter Outcome 2 Odds: Best odds for second outcome

3. Enter Outcome 3 (if applicable): For three-way markets

4. Input Total Stake: Amount to distribute

5. View Stakes: Exact amounts per outcome

6. See Profit: Guaranteed return

Input Fields Explained

Field	Description	Example
Outcome 1	Decimal odds	2.10
Outcome 2	Decimal odds	2.05
Total Stake	Investment	$1,000
Stake on O1	Amount	$488
Stake on O2	Amount	$512
Guaranteed Profit	Return	$24.40

Sure Bet Math

Detecting Sure Bets

Calculate arbitrage percentage:

Arb % = (1/Odds1 + 1/Odds2 + ...) × 100
If < 100%, sure bet exists
Profit % = 100% - Arb %

Example Calculation

Two-Way Market:

• Book A: Team 1 at 2.15 (46.51%)
• Book B: Team 2 at 2.00 (50.00%)
• Total: 96.51%
• Profit margin: 3.49%

Stake Distribution

Stake on Outcome = (Total Stake × Implied Probability) / Total Arb %

For $1,000 total:
Stake 1 = 1000 × 0.4651 / 0.9651 = $481.94
Stake 2 = 1000 × 0.5000 / 0.9651 = $518.06

Verification:

• If Team 1 wins: $481.94 × 2.15 = $1,036.17
• If Team 2 wins: $518.06 × 2.00 = $1,036.12

Guaranteed profit: ~$36

Three-Way Sure Bets

Soccer/Draw Markets

Example:

• Home: 3.00 (33.33%) - Book A
• Draw: 3.50 (28.57%) - Book B
• Away: 2.80 (35.71%) - Book C
• Total: 97.61%
• Profit margin: 2.39%

Stake Calculation

For $1,000:

Home: 1000 × 0.3333 / 0.9761 = $341.49
Draw: 1000 × 0.2857 / 0.9761 = $292.74
Away: 1000 × 0.3571 / 0.9761 = $365.77

Returns:

• Home wins: $341.49 × 3.00 = $1,024.47
• Draw: $292.74 × 3.50 = $1,024.59
• Away wins: $365.77 × 2.80 = $1,024.16

Finding Sure Bets

Profitable Markets

Market Type	Sure Bet Frequency	Typical Margin
Tennis	High	1-3%
Soccer (3-way)	Medium	1-2%
NFL Moneyline	Medium	1-4%
NBA Totals	Medium	1-3%
Horse Racing	Low-Medium	2-5%

Bookmaker Combinations

Book Type	Odds Quality	Limits
Sharp (Pinnacle)	Best	High
Soft (recreational)	Variable	Medium
Promos/boosts	Artificially high	Low

Time-Sensitive Opportunities

Timing	Opportunity
Early morning lines	Books not aligned
Breaking news	Some books slow to adjust
Closing line	Last-minute discrepancies
Promotions	Boosted odds create arbs

Real-World Examples

Example 1: Tennis Match

Djokovic vs Alcaraz:

• Bet365: Djokovic 1.95
• Pinnacle: Alcaraz 2.15

Check:

• Djokovic: 51.28%
• Alcaraz: 46.51%
• Total: 97.79%

$500 Sure Bet:

• Djokovic: $262.16 at 1.95 = $511.21
• Alcaraz: $237.84 at 2.15 = $511.36

Guaranteed profit: ~$11

Example 2: NFL Moneyline

Chiefs vs Bills:

• DraftKings: Chiefs +145 (2.45)
• FanDuel: Bills -135 (1.74)

Check:

• Chiefs: 40.82%
• Bills: 57.47%
• Total: 98.29%

$1,000 Sure Bet:

• Chiefs: $415.28 at 2.45 = $1,017.44
• Bills: $584.72 at 1.74 = $1,017.41

Guaranteed profit: ~$17

Example 3: Boosted Odds Arb

Book Promotion: Lakers +200 boosted (normally +180) Another Book: Celtics -180 (1.56)

Check:

• Lakers: 33.33%
• Celtics: 64.10%
• Total: 97.43%

$200 Sure Bet:

• Lakers: $68.42 at 3.00 = $205.26
• Celtics: $131.58 at 1.56 = $205.27

Guaranteed profit: ~$5 on small stake

Sure Bet Challenges

Account Limitations

Challenge	Impact
Bet limits	Can't place full stake
Account closures	Books ban arbers
Stake rejection	Amounts get reduced
Gubbing	Limited to small stakes

Execution Risk

Risk	Mitigation
Odds change	Act fast, have stakes ready
One bet placed	Always bet smaller book first
Void bet	One leg exposed
Max bet limit	Calculate before betting

Practical Considerations

Factor	Reality
Capital required	$5,000+ for meaningful returns
Time investment	Constant monitoring
Accounts needed	10-20+ books
Sustainability	Most arbers get limited

Sure Bet Strategy

Execution Protocol

Step	Action
1	Identify opportunity
2	Verify both bets available
3	Calculate exact stakes
4	Place smaller/softer book first
5	Immediately place second bet
6	Document all bets

Account Management

Strategy	Purpose
Mug betting	Appear recreational
Varying stakes	Avoid detection
Losing parlays	Look like square bettor
Diverse markets	Don't only arb

Profit Optimization

Factor	Optimization
Margins	Target 3%+ for effort/reward
Volume	More arbs = more profit
Accounts	More books = more opportunities
Speed	Faster execution = better odds

Common Sure Bet Mistakes

1. Partial Betting

Mistake: Placing one bet, unable to place second Problem: Exposed to single-bet risk Fix: Verify both bets available first

2. Math Errors

Mistake: Incorrect stake calculations Problem: Unequal returns, potential loss Fix: Always use calculator, double-check

3. Ignoring Limits

Mistake: Not checking max bet before calculating Problem: Can't place full calculated stake Fix: Verify limits on both books

4. Slow Execution

Mistake: Taking time between bets Problem: Odds change, sure bet disappears Fix: Have stakes pre-calculated, move fast

Frequently Asked Questions

Is sure betting legal?

Yes, in most jurisdictions. However, it may violate bookmaker terms of service, leading to account restrictions.

How much can I make sure betting?

Depends on capital, accounts, and time. Realistically: $500-2,000/month with significant effort and $10,000+ bankroll.

Will bookmakers ban me?

Probably eventually. Most aggressive arbers get limited within 6-12 months at soft books.

What's the minimum profitable margin?

Target 2-3%+ to justify effort. Below 1% isn't worth execution risk.

Can I sure bet with one account?

No. You need different bookmakers offering different odds on opposite outcomes.

How do I find sure bets?

Odds comparison services, arbitrage alert services, or manual comparison across multiple books.

Advanced Sure Betting

Three-Way Arb Optimization

In soccer, sometimes betting two outcomes with a middle is better:

Strategy	Coverage
Full arb	All three outcomes
Partial	Two outcomes, hoping for third

Cross-Market Arbs

Market 1	Market 2	Opportunity
Match winner	Correct score	Implied arb
Over/Under	Team total	Correlated arb
Moneyline	Spread	Can create value

Exchange Arbitrage

Using betting exchanges (Betfair) with bookmakers:

Book Bet	Exchange Lay	Result
Back at 2.10	Lay at 2.00	Lock profit

Pro Tips

• Speed is everything: Arbs disappear in seconds

• Soft book first: Bet the book more likely to limit you first

• Track everything: Know your ROI, factor all costs

• Diversify accounts: More books = more longevity

• Accept limitation: Plan for accounts getting restricted

Related Calculators

• Arbitrage Calculator - Same concept, different name
• Hedge Calculator - Lock in existing profits
• Odds Converter - Format conversion
• Expected Value Calculator - EV analysis
• Implied Probability Calculator - Odds to percentage

Conclusion

Sure bets guarantee profit by exploiting odds differences across bookmakers. Our calculator identifies opportunities and calculates exact stake distribution for equal returns regardless of outcome. While mathematically sound, sure betting requires significant capital, multiple accounts, and fast execution.

Calculate Your Sure Bets Now →

Sure betting is a mathematical edge, not a long-term career for most. Books eventually limit consistent arbers. Maximize your window with efficient execution, account management, and realistic expectations about sustainability.