Matched Betting Calculator: Extract Guaranteed Profits from Bonuses

Matched betting transforms sportsbook bonuses into guaranteed profits using back and lay bets that cancel out risk. Our free calculator shows exactly how much to stake to lock in returns regardless of the outcome.

What Is Matched Betting?

Matched betting uses sportsbook free bets and bonuses combined with opposing bets on betting exchanges to guarantee profit. You bet both sides of an outcome, ensuring you win no matter what happens.

Quick Answer: With a $100 free bet at +200 odds, you bet the free bet on Team A to win, then lay (bet against) Team A on an exchange. The calculator determines exact lay stakes so you profit whether Team A wins or loses—typically 70-80% of the free bet value ($70-$80 guaranteed).

How to Use Our Free Matched Betting Calculator

Use the Matched Betting Calculator →

Enter your free bet details and exchange odds to see guaranteed profit.

Step-by-Step Instructions

1. Enter Free Bet Amount: The bonus value

2. Input Back Odds: Sportsbook odds for your selection

3. Input Lay Odds: Exchange odds against your selection

4. Set Exchange Commission: Usually 2-5%

5. View Results: See lay stake and guaranteed profit

Input Fields Explained

Field	Description	Example
Free Bet	Bonus amount	$100
Back Odds	Sportsbook decimal odds	3.00 (+200)
Lay Odds	Exchange decimal odds	3.05
Commission	Exchange fee	5%
Bet Type	Free bet or qualifying bet	Free bet

Matched Betting Step-by-Step

Phase 1: Qualifying Bet

First, you must "qualify" for the free bet by placing a real-money wager.

Goal: Lose as little as possible while triggering the bonus.

Example:

• Sportsbook: Bet $50 at 2.00 odds (even money)
• Exchange: Lay $50 at 2.02 odds
• Net loss: ~$1-2 (the "qualifying loss")

Phase 2: Free Bet Extraction

Now convert the free bet into cash.

Example:

• Free bet: $50 at 3.00 odds (sportsbook)
• Lay bet: $71.43 at 3.05 odds (exchange)
• Commission: 5%

Outcomes:

• If back wins: $100 profit - $71.43 lay loss - commission = ~$28
• If lay wins: $0 back - $71.43 × (1-0.05) = ~$28

Guaranteed profit: ~$28 (56% of free bet value)

Calculator Formulas

Qualifying Bet Lay Stake

Lay Stake = (Back Stake × Back Odds) / (Lay Odds - Commission)

Goal: Near-zero loss on qualifying bet.

Free Bet Lay Stake

Lay Stake = (Free Bet × (Back Odds - 1)) / (Lay Odds - Commission)

Note: Free bets return only profit, not stake (Back Odds - 1).

Profit Calculation

For free bets:

Profit = (Free Bet × (Back Odds - 1)) - (Lay Stake × (Lay Odds - 1) × (1 - Commission))

Both outcomes yield the same profit (that's the point).

Real-World Matched Betting Examples

Example 1: Simple Free Bet

Sportsbook offer: Bet $25, get $25 free bet

Qualifying bet:

• Back: $25 at 1.90 odds
• Lay: $24.50 at 1.92 odds
• Qualifying loss: ~$0.50

Free bet:

• Back: $25 free bet at 3.50 odds
• Lay: $30.00 at 3.55 odds (5% commission)
• Guaranteed profit: ~$18

Total profit: $18 - $0.50 = $17.50

Example 2: Deposit Match Bonus

Sportsbook offer: 100% deposit match up to $200

Step 1: Deposit $200, receive $200 bonus with 3× rollover ($600 total wagering required)

Qualifying bets (3× $200):

• Wager $600 total on low-margin markets
• Expected loss: ~$6-10 (1-2% margin)

Profit: $200 bonus - ~$8 losses = ~$192

Example 3: Risk-Free Bet

Sportsbook offer: $500 risk-free first bet

Strategy: Different from free bet—you keep stake if you win.

Back: $500 at 2.50 odds Lay: $555 at 2.52 odds

If back wins: $750 - $555 + $27.75 comm = ~$222 If back loses: Get $500 free bet → extract ~$350

Expected value: ~$285 (57% of offer)

Finding Matched Betting Opportunities

Best Bonuses for Matched Betting

Bonus Type	Typical Extraction Rate
Free bets	70-80%
Deposit matches	80-95%
Risk-free bets	55-70%
Odds boosts	90-100%
Refund offers	Variable

Where to Find Offers

1. New customer bonuses: Sign-up offers at sportsbooks
2. Reload bonuses: Existing customer promotions
3. Special events: Super Bowl, March Madness promos
4. Loyalty rewards: VIP free bet offers

Best Markets for Matching

• Low margin sports: Soccer, tennis, major US sports
• Pre-match betting: More liquidity than live
• Popular events: Better exchange liquidity
• Close odds: Minimizes qualifying loss

Common Matched Betting Mistakes

1. Wrong Lay Stake: Calculator errors lead to guaranteed losses instead of profits. Always double-check.

2. Forgetting Commission: Exchange commission (2-5%) must be included in calculations.

3. Misunderstanding Free Bet Type: "Stake not returned" free bets calculate differently than "stake returned."

4. Insufficient Exchange Liquidity: Your lay bet might not fill at expected odds.

5. Account Restrictions: Sportsbooks may limit accounts that only use bonuses. Bet recreationally occasionally.

6. Tax Implications: Depending on jurisdiction, matched betting profits may be taxable.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is matched betting legal?

Yes. Matched betting uses sportsbook promotions as intended—you're simply hedging to guarantee profit. It's not illegal, but sportsbooks may restrict accounts.

How much can I make?

New customer offers can yield $2,000-$5,000+ in the first few months. Ongoing profits require reload offers and multiple sportsbooks.

Will I get banned?

Possibly restricted, not banned. Sportsbooks may limit your bet sizes or exclude you from promotions if they notice bonus-only activity.

Do I need starting capital?

Yes. You need enough to cover back bets and lay stakes simultaneously. A $100 free bet might require $200-$300 float.

What's a betting exchange?

Exchanges (like Betfair, Smarkets) let you bet against other users. You can "lay" bets—betting that something won't happen—which enables matched betting.

Is this the same as arbitrage?

Similar concept, different source. Arbitrage exploits odds differences between books. Matched betting exploits bonuses with exchange hedging.

Risk Management

Protect Your Bankroll

• Use the calculator: Never estimate—small errors compound
• Start small: Learn with smaller bonuses first
• Track everything: Spreadsheet every bet and outcome
• Don't chase: If you make an error, calculate the fix carefully

Account Longevity

Extend your sportsbook account life:

• Place some "mug bets" (recreational-looking wagers)
• Don't only withdraw, deposit sometimes too
• Use the account regularly, not just during promos
• Mix in losing bets (you'll have some from qualifying)

Advanced Matched Betting

Accumulator Free Bets

Some offers give free bets for losing accumulators:

• Place accumulator with one leg likely to lose
• Lay that leg on exchange
• Get free bet when it loses
• Extract free bet value

Each-Way Arbing

Back each-way at bookmaker, lay win and place separately:

• More complex calculation
• Can find better value in horse racing
• Calculator handles the math

In-Play Matched Betting

Match bets during live events:

• Odds change rapidly
• Requires fast execution
• Higher risk of errors

Matched Betting vs. Other Strategies

Strategy	Risk	Expected Profit	Difficulty
Matched Betting	Near-zero	Guaranteed	Low
Arbitrage	Near-zero	Small per bet	Medium
Value Betting	Medium	Positive EV	High
Sports Betting	High	Usually negative	Variable

Matched betting offers the best risk-reward for beginners.

Pro Tips for Matched Betting

• Multiple accounts: Sign up for every available sportsbook

• Dedicated bank account: Separate gambling money for clarity

• Odds comparison: Find tight back/lay odds for minimal loss

• Patience: Some offers require multi-day waiting periods

• Calculator always: Never mental math your stakes

Related Calculators

• Arbitrage Calculator - Cross-book guaranteed profit
• Odds Converter - Compare odds formats
• Expected Value Calculator - EV analysis
• Lay Bet Calculator - Exchange calculations
• Free Bet Calculator - Free bet extraction

Conclusion

Matched betting is the closest thing to guaranteed profit in gambling. Our free calculator shows exactly how to stake your back and lay bets to lock in returns regardless of outcome. With discipline and attention to detail, you can extract hundreds or thousands from sportsbook bonuses.

Calculate Your Matched Betting Profit Now →

The math is simple; the execution requires care. Use the calculator for every bet, track your results, and enjoy the rare experience of guaranteed profits from sports betting.