Caribbean Stud Poker Calculator: Master the Raise/Fold Decision

Caribbean Stud Poker pits your five-card hand against the dealer's. Our calculator shows optimal raise/fold decisions for any hand, helping you minimize the 5.22% house edge and understand progressive jackpot math.

What Is Caribbean Stud Poker?

Caribbean Stud is a table poker game where you compete against the dealer, not other players. After seeing one dealer card, you decide to raise or fold.

Quick Answer: The key Caribbean Stud decision is raise (2x ante) or fold. Optimal strategy: Always raise with pair or better. With A-K, raise if you match the dealer's upcard, or if you have Q-J in your hand. Fold all other hands. House edge is 5.22%—one of the highest table games.

How to Use Our Caribbean Stud Calculator

Use the Caribbean Stud Poker Calculator →

Enter your five cards and the dealer's upcard for optimal decisions.

Step-by-Step Instructions

1. Enter Your Five Cards: Input your complete hand

2. Enter Dealer Upcard: The one visible dealer card

3. View Recommendation: Raise or fold

4. See Hand Strength: Your poker hand ranking

5. Understand Why: Strategic reasoning explained

Input Fields Explained

Field	Description	Example
Your Cards	Five cards dealt	A♠ K♦ 7♣ 4♥ 2♠
Dealer Upcard	Visible dealer card	Q♣
Your Hand	Poker ranking	A-K High
Decision	Optimal play	Raise/Fold
Hand Equity	Expected value	Variable

Caribbean Stud Rules

Game Flow

1. Ante: Place mandatory ante bet
2. Optional: Place progressive jackpot bet ($1)
3. Deal: Receive 5 cards face down; dealer gets 5 (1 face up)
4. Decision: Raise (2x ante) or fold (lose ante)
5. Showdown: Dealer reveals hand

Dealer Qualification

The dealer must have A-K or better to "qualify":

Dealer Hand	Result
Qualifies, you win	Ante pays 1:1, raise pays per table
Qualifies, dealer wins	Lose both ante and raise
Doesn't qualify, you win	Ante pays 1:1, raise pushes
Doesn't qualify, dealer wins	N/A (you already won)

Dealer doesn't qualify ~44% of the time.

Optimal Caribbean Stud Strategy

Always Raise With

• Any pair or better
• A-K-Q-x-x or better (any)
• A-K-J-8-x or better (any)

Always Fold With

• Less than A-K high
• A-Q-x-x-x or worse (no pair)

A-K Hands (The Tricky Part)

With exactly A-K high:

Condition	Action
Dealer upcard matches one of your cards	Raise
You have Q-J in hand	Raise
Dealer upcard is 2-Q, you have Q in hand	Raise
Dealer upcard is A or K	Raise (you block their pair)
None of above	Fold

Simplified A-K Strategy

If memorizing is difficult:

• Raise A-K if dealer upcard is 2 through Q AND matches one of your other cards
• Fold A-K otherwise

This simplified approach costs ~0.1% compared to perfect play.

Raise Payouts

Standard Pay Table

Hand	Raise Payout
Royal Flush	100:1
Straight Flush	50:1
Four of a Kind	20:1
Full House	7:1
Flush	5:1
Straight	4:1
Three of a Kind	3:1
Two Pair	2:1
One Pair	1:1
A-K High	1:1

Example Payout Calculation

Ante: $10, Raise: $20, Hand: Full House

• Ante win: $10
• Raise win: $20 × 7 = $140
• Total profit: $150

Progressive Jackpot Analysis

Typical Progressive Payouts

Hand	Payout
Royal Flush	100% of jackpot
Straight Flush	10% of jackpot
Four of a Kind	$500
Full House	$100
Flush	$50

Progressive Math

Hand	Probability	Fixed Pays	Break-even Jackpot
Royal Flush	1 in 649,740	-	~$220,000+
Straight Flush	1 in 72,193	-	Included
Four of a Kind	1 in 4,165	$500	Included
Full House	1 in 694	$100	Included
Flush	1 in 509	$50	Included

The progressive bet is +EV only when jackpot exceeds ~$220,000.

Should You Bet the Progressive?

Jackpot Size	Expected Value	Recommendation
Under $100K	-50%+	Never
$100K-$200K	-25% to -10%	Avoid
$200K-$250K	-5% to +5%	Borderline
Over $250K	+EV	Consider it

Most jackpots are well under break-even. The $1 bet is usually -EV.

House Edge Breakdown

Base Game: 5.22%

Factor	Impact
Dealer non-qualification	Reduces losses
Raise losing to qualified dealer	Main loss source
Bonus payouts on big hands	Slight reduction

Compared to Other Games

Game	House Edge
Blackjack (basic strategy)	0.5%
Craps (pass line)	1.41%
Three Card Poker	3.37%
Caribbean Stud	5.22%
Let It Ride	3.51%
Slots (average)	5-10%

Caribbean Stud has one of the highest table game edges.

Real-World Examples

Example 1: Easy Raise

Your Hand: J♠ J♥ 9♣ 5♦ 2♠ Dealer Upcard: K♣

Decision: Raise (pair) Reasoning: Any pair is automatic raise.

Example 2: Easy Fold

Your Hand: K♣ Q♦ 10♥ 7♠ 3♣ Dealer Upcard: A♦

Decision: Fold Reasoning: Less than A-K high, no pair.

Example 3: Tricky A-K

Your Hand: A♠ K♦ 8♣ 6♥ 3♠ Dealer Upcard: 8♥

Decision: Raise Reasoning: A-K with dealer upcard matching one of your cards (8).

Example 4: A-K Fold

Your Hand: A♣ K♠ 9♦ 5♥ 2♣ Dealer Upcard: J♦

Decision: Fold Reasoning: A-K without matching dealer upcard, no Q-J in hand.

Common Caribbean Stud Mistakes

1. Always Raising A-K

Mistake: "A-K is strong, always raise" Reality: A-K without favorable conditions loses money Fix: Follow A-K strategy precisely

2. Folding Small Pairs

Mistake: "Deuces can't win" Reality: Any pair beats no pair; dealer often doesn't qualify Fix: Always raise any pair

3. Chasing the Progressive

Mistake: Betting $1 every hand Reality: Costs $60+/hour with negative EV Fix: Only bet progressive at $250K+ jackpots

4. Ignoring Dealer Non-Qualification

Mistake: Celebrating wins when dealer doesn't qualify Reality: Raise only pushes, missing value Fix: Understand this is normal (44% of time)

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is the house edge so high?

Because you must decide before seeing dealer's full hand, and raise is 2x ante. Also, raise only pushes when dealer doesn't qualify.

Should I always bet the progressive?

No. The $1 side bet has ~26% house edge at typical jackpot levels. Only +EV above ~$220,000.

Is Caribbean Stud beatable?

No. Unlike blackjack, there's no way to gain an edge. Optimal play minimizes losses to 5.22%.

Why does dealer need A-K to qualify?

This rule gives players some protection—you win ante when dealer has weak hands. It reduces edge from ~7% to 5.22%.

Can I see other players' cards?

Technically against rules, but in practice, sharing information doesn't significantly help due to independent hands.

What's the best Caribbean Stud strategy?

Simple version: Raise pair or better, raise A-K matching dealer upcard, fold everything else.

Advanced Concepts

Variance in Caribbean Stud

Metric	Value
Standard deviation	2.24 units per hand
Variance	High (bonus payouts)
Bankroll needed	100+ units for session

Element of Risk

The 5.22% edge applies to total action (ante + raise). Effective edge on initial ante is higher due to fold decisions.

Collusion Considerations

In theory, seeing other players' folded cards helps slightly. In practice:

• Casinos prohibit card sharing
• Benefit is tiny (<0.5% edge reduction)
• Not worth the effort

Pro Tips for Caribbean Stud

• Memorize basic strategy: Pair+ raise, A-K rules, fold rest

• Skip the progressive: Unless jackpot is huge

• Set loss limits: 5% edge adds up quickly

• Enjoy the game: It's entertainment, not income

• Watch for variations: Some casinos offer better pay tables

Related Casino Calculators

• Three Card Poker Calculator - Similar structure
• Let It Ride Calculator - Another poker variant
• Pai Gow Poker Calculator - Split-hand poker
• Casino War Calculator - Simple comparison
• Casino House Edge Calculator - Compare games

Conclusion

Caribbean Stud Poker offers straightforward raise/fold decisions against a 5.22% house edge. Our calculator shows optimal plays for any hand—pair or better always raises, A-K follows specific rules, and everything else folds. Skip the progressive unless the jackpot exceeds $220,000.

Calculate Your Caribbean Stud Decisions Now →

While Caribbean Stud has a higher edge than many table games, its simple strategy and potential for bonus payouts make it popular. Learn the basic strategy, manage your bankroll, and enjoy the poker-style action.