Matched Betting Explained: Turn Sportsbook Bonuses into Guaranteed Profit (2026)
What if you could turn every sportsbook signup bonus into guaranteed cash? That is exactly what matched betting does. By placing opposing bets -- one on a sportsbook and one on a betting exchange -- you cover every possible outcome and extract the bonus value as risk-free profit. Thousands of people in the US and UK earn hundreds to thousands of dollars per month doing exactly this, and the mathematics behind it are surprisingly simple.
Matched betting is not gambling in any traditional sense. There is no prediction, no gut feeling, and no risk (when executed correctly). It is a mathematical technique that exploits the promotional offers sportsbooks use to acquire new customers. The sportsbook gives you a free bet or deposit bonus, and you use precise calculations to convert that bonus into withdrawable cash.
This guide will walk you through every step: how matched betting works, how to calculate exact lay stakes for guaranteed profit, the difference between stake-not-returned and stake-returned free bets, realistic earnings expectations, and the tools you need to execute flawlessly.
Calculate your matched betting profits instantly with our free Matched Betting Calculator.
What Is Matched Betting?
Matched betting is a technique that uses sportsbook free bets and bonuses combined with opposing bets on betting exchanges to guarantee a profit regardless of the event outcome.
The Core Concept
Every matched bet involves two simultaneous bets:
- Back Bet (Sportsbook): You bet FOR an outcome to happen (e.g., "Team A wins")
- Lay Bet (Exchange): You bet AGAINST the same outcome (e.g., "Team A does NOT win")
By covering both sides, you cancel out the risk. The only thing that matters is the free bet value, which gets converted into cash through precise stake calculations.
Why It Works
Sportsbooks spend billions on customer acquisition. A $200 free bet offer costs them far less than a customer's lifetime value, so they offer these promotions aggressively. Matched bettors systematically claim these offers and convert them to cash.
Key principle: You are not beating the sportsbook at their games. You are converting their marketing budget into your profit.
Use our Back-Lay Calculator to find the perfect lay stake for any matched bet.
How Matched Betting Works: Step-by-Step
Phase 1: The Qualifying Bet
Most sportsbook bonuses require you to place a real-money bet before receiving your free bet. This is called the qualifying bet. The goal is to lose as little as possible while triggering the bonus.
Example: $50 Qualifying Bet
Sportsbook offer: "Bet $50, get a $50 free bet."
| Component | Details |
|---|---|
| Back bet (sportsbook) | $50 on Team A at 2.00 (even money) |
| Lay bet (exchange) | $50.50 on Team A at 2.02 |
| Exchange commission | 5% |
If Team A wins:
- Back bet profit: $50 (you win $50 at even money)
- Lay bet loss: -$50.50 x (2.02 - 1) = -$51.51
- Net: $50 - $51.51 = -$1.51
If Team A loses:
- Back bet loss: -$50
- Lay bet profit: $50.50 x (1 - 0.05) = +$47.98
- Net: -$50 + $47.98 = -$2.02
Qualifying loss: approximately $1.50-$2.00. This small loss is the cost of unlocking the free bet.
Phase 2: Free Bet Conversion (The Profit)
Now you have a $50 free bet. This is where the profit comes from. Free bets come in two types, and the strategy differs for each.
Calculate exact qualifying bet amounts with our Matched Betting Calculator.
SNR vs. SR Free Bets: The Critical Difference
Stake Not Returned (SNR) Free Bets
With SNR free bets -- the most common type -- if your free bet wins, you receive the profit but NOT the original stake. This means:
- $50 free bet at 3.00 odds wins: You receive $100 profit (not $150)
- $50 free bet at 3.00 odds loses: You receive nothing
SNR Conversion Rate: Typically 60-80% of the free bet value
SNR Lay Stake Formula
Lay Stake = (Free Bet x (Back Odds - 1)) / (Lay Odds - Commission)
Example: $50 SNR Free Bet
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Free bet amount | $50 |
| Back odds (sportsbook) | 4.00 (+300) |
| Lay odds (exchange) | 4.10 |
| Exchange commission | 5% |
Lay Stake = ($50 x (4.00 - 1)) / (4.10 - 0.05) Lay Stake = ($50 x 3.00) / 4.05 Lay Stake = $150 / 4.05 Lay Stake = $37.04
If back bet wins:
- Free bet profit: $50 x (4.00 - 1) = $150
- Lay bet loss: $37.04 x (4.10 - 1) = -$114.82
- Net profit: $150 - $114.82 = $35.18
If back bet loses:
- Free bet loss: $0 (it was a free bet, you lose nothing)
- Lay bet profit: $37.04 x (1 - 0.05) = $35.19
Guaranteed profit: approximately $35.18 (70.4% of free bet value)
Calculate SNR free bet conversions with our Free Bet Calculator (SNR).
Stake Returned (SR) Free Bets
With SR free bets, if your free bet wins, you receive both the profit AND the original stake amount. These are less common but more valuable.
- $50 SR free bet at 3.00 odds wins: You receive $150 total ($100 profit + $50 stake)
- $50 SR free bet at 3.00 odds loses: You receive nothing
SR Conversion Rate: Typically 85-95% of the free bet value
SR Lay Stake Formula
Lay Stake = (Free Bet x Back Odds) / (Lay Odds - Commission)
Example: $50 SR Free Bet
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Free bet amount | $50 |
| Back odds (sportsbook) | 4.00 (+300) |
| Lay odds (exchange) | 4.10 |
| Exchange commission | 5% |
Lay Stake = ($50 x 4.00) / (4.10 - 0.05) Lay Stake = $200 / 4.05 Lay Stake = $49.38
If back bet wins:
- Free bet profit: $50 x 4.00 = $200
- Lay bet loss: $49.38 x (4.10 - 1) = -$153.08
- Net profit: $200 - $153.08 = $46.92
If back bet loses:
- Free bet loss: $0
- Lay bet profit: $49.38 x (1 - 0.05) = $46.91
Guaranteed profit: approximately $46.91 (93.8% of free bet value)
Calculate SR free bet conversions with our Free Bet Calculator (SR).
Understanding Lay Betting on Exchanges
What Is a Betting Exchange?
A betting exchange is a marketplace where bettors bet against each other rather than against a bookmaker. Exchanges like Betfair allow you to "lay" a bet -- meaning you take the bookmaker's role by offering odds to another bettor.
How Lay Betting Works
When you lay a bet, you are betting that something will NOT happen:
- Lay "Team A to win" means you win if Team A draws or loses
- Your liability = Lay Stake x (Lay Odds - 1)
- Your profit if the lay wins = Lay Stake x (1 - Commission)
Example:
- You lay $40 on Team A at 3.00 odds
- If Team A loses or draws: You win $40 x (1 - 0.05) = $38
- If Team A wins: You lose $40 x (3.00 - 1) = -$80
The liability ($80) must be available in your exchange account before placing the lay bet.
Calculate lay bet outcomes with our Lay Bet Calculator.
Exchange Commission
Betting exchanges charge commission on winning lay bets, typically 2-5%. This affects your profit calculations:
Net Lay Profit = Lay Stake x (1 - Commission Rate)
At 5% commission on a $50 lay win: $50 x 0.95 = $47.50
Different exchanges offer different commission rates. Lower commission directly increases your matched betting profit.
Calculate how commission affects your profit with our Betfair Commission Calculator.
Choosing the Right Odds for Matched Betting
Why Odds Selection Matters
The closer the back odds and lay odds are to each other, the less you lose on qualifying bets and the more you extract from free bets. The gap between back and lay odds is called the "overround" or "spread."
Optimal Odds Ranges
| Situation | Recommended Odds Range | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Qualifying bets | 1.50 - 3.00 | Lower odds = smaller qualifying loss |
| SNR free bets | 4.00 - 8.00 | Higher odds = better conversion rate |
| SR free bets | 3.00 - 6.00 | Moderate odds = good balance |
| Arbing | Close back/lay spread | Tighter = more profit |
Why Higher Odds Are Better for Free Bets
For SNR free bets, the conversion rate improves with higher odds:
| Back Odds | Approximate Conversion Rate |
|---|---|
| 2.00 | 45-50% |
| 3.00 | 60-65% |
| 4.00 | 70-75% |
| 5.00 | 75-80% |
| 6.00 | 78-82% |
| 8.00 | 82-86% |
| 10.00 | 85-88% |
The tradeoff: higher odds events have more liquidity risk on exchanges (harder to get your lay bet matched).
Convert between American, decimal, and fractional odds with our Odds Converter.
Complete Matched Betting Walkthrough
Real-World Example: DraftKings $200 Deposit Bonus
Step 1: Create Account and Deposit
- Deposit $200 on DraftKings
- Bonus terms: Bet $200 to receive $200 in free bets
Step 2: Place Qualifying Bet
- Find an event with close back/lay odds
- Back bet: $200 on NFL Team at 2.00 on DraftKings
- Lay bet: $201.50 on same team at 2.02 on exchange (5% commission)
- Qualifying loss: approximately $3-4
Step 3: Receive Free Bets
- DraftKings credits $200 in free bets (often split into $25 or $50 increments)
- These are typically SNR free bets
Step 4: Convert Each Free Bet Using our Free Bet Calculator (SNR) for each $50 free bet:
- Back: $50 free bet at 5.00 odds on DraftKings
- Lay: $39.22 at 5.10 odds on exchange
Per free bet guaranteed profit: approximately $37.26
Step 5: Total Profit
- 4 x $37.26 = $149.04 from free bets
- Minus $3.50 qualifying loss
- Net guaranteed profit: approximately $145.54
Time invested: 30-45 minutes. That is an effective hourly rate of $200+.
Managing Your Bankroll for Matched Betting
You need enough capital to cover both the sportsbook deposit and exchange liability simultaneously:
Minimum Bankroll = Sportsbook Deposit + Maximum Lay Liability
For the DraftKings example above:
- Sportsbook: $200 deposit
- Exchange: $201.50 lay stake + ~$160 liability reserve
- Total needed: approximately $560
Scaling Matched Betting: Beyond Welcome Offers
Reload Offers
Many sportsbooks offer ongoing promotions to existing customers:
- "Bet $50, get a $10 free bet" weekly offers
- Odds boosts and enhanced odds promotions
- Parlay insurance (refund if one leg loses)
- Risk-free bet promotions for specific events
These have lower individual value but add up significantly over time.
Price Boosts and Enhanced Odds
When a sportsbook boosts odds beyond the true probability, you can sometimes create a pure arbitrage opportunity:
Example: DraftKings boosts Team A from +150 to +200, but the exchange lay odds are 2.80.
- Back: $100 at 3.00 (boosted +200)
- Lay: $107.14 at 2.80
- If back wins: $200 profit - $107.14 x 1.80 loss = $200 - $192.86 = +$7.14
- If lay wins: -$100 + $107.14 x 0.95 = -$100 + $101.78 = +$1.78
Guaranteed profit: $1.78 - $7.14 depending on outcome. This is pure arbitrage from the boosted odds.
Find arbitrage opportunities with our Arbitrage Calculator.
Dutching for Matched Betting
When exchange liquidity is limited, you can use dutching to cover multiple outcomes at different sportsbooks instead of using a lay bet:
Example: Event with 3 outcomes:
- Sportsbook A: Team 1 at 3.50
- Sportsbook B: Draw at 3.80
- Sportsbook C: Team 2 at 2.50
If the combined implied probability is below 100%, you have a dutching opportunity.
Calculate dutching stakes with our Dutching Calculator.
Calculating Your Expected Monthly Income
Realistic Earnings Estimates
| Phase | Monthly Offers | Avg. Profit per Offer | Monthly Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Welcome bonuses (Month 1-2) | 8-15 sportsbooks | $50-$150 | $400-$2,250 |
| Reload offers (ongoing) | 15-30 offers | $5-$25 | $75-$750 |
| Price boosts (ongoing) | 20-40 per month | $1-$10 | $20-$400 |
| Total (Month 1-2) | $495-$3,400 | ||
| Total (Month 3+) | $95-$1,150 |
Welcome bonuses provide the bulk of matched betting income. Once you have cycled through all available sportsbooks, income shifts to reload offers and price boosts, which provide a smaller but steady stream.
Factors That Affect Earnings
- Number of legal sportsbooks in your state -- More books = more welcome offers
- Bonus sizes -- Varies from $50 to $1,000+ per sportsbook
- Exchange liquidity -- Better liquidity = tighter spreads = more profit
- Time invested -- More time finding and executing offers = more income
- Bankroll size -- Larger bankroll allows you to tackle bigger offers
Common Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
Mistake 1: Forgetting to Place the Lay Bet
Never place a back bet without immediately placing the corresponding lay bet. If odds shift between placing bets, your calculations are invalid.
Solution: Use our calculators to pre-calculate all stakes, then execute both bets within seconds of each other.
Mistake 2: Wrong Bet Type (SNR vs. SR)
Using the wrong formula for your free bet type can turn a guaranteed profit into a loss.
Solution: Always verify whether your free bet is SNR or SR before calculating. Check the sportsbook's terms and conditions.
Mistake 3: Ignoring Exchange Commission
Forgetting to account for the 2-5% exchange commission can turn a small profit into a small loss.
Solution: Always include commission in your calculations. Use our Betfair Commission Calculator to see exact figures.
Mistake 4: Gubbing (Account Restriction)
Sportsbooks may limit or restrict accounts that they identify as matched bettors. Signs include reduced maximum bet sizes and exclusion from promotions.
How to minimize gubbing risk:
- Mix in some "normal" looking bets occasionally (small, popular markets)
- Do not always bet on obscure markets with perfect matched betting odds
- Withdraw at a natural pace, not immediately after every free bet conversion
- Use multiple sportsbooks to spread your activity
Mistake 5: Exceeding Your Bankroll
Taking on offers that require more capital than you have available is dangerous.
Solution: Calculate total capital required (sportsbook deposit + exchange liability) before committing. Use our Hedge Calculator to plan complex multi-leg positions.
Is Matched Betting Legal?
United States
Matched betting is legal in all states where sports betting is legal. You are simply using your own money to place legal bets at legal sportsbooks. There is no law against being smart about how you use promotional offers.
However, sportsbooks may restrict or close your account under their terms of service if they determine you are exclusively bonus hunting. This is an account restriction, not a legal issue.
Tax Implications
In the US, all gambling winnings are taxable income. For matched betting:
- Your qualifying bet losses are deductible against winnings (if you itemize)
- Free bet profits are taxable gambling income
- Keep detailed records of all transactions for tax reporting
- Consult a tax professional for your specific situation
Understand what you owe on winnings with our Expected Value Calculator.
Implied Probability and Fair Odds
Understanding implied probability helps you identify when sportsbook offers create genuine value:
Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds
If a sportsbook offers 3.00 on a team, the implied probability is 33.3%. If you believe the true probability is 40%, the bet has positive expected value independent of matched betting.
Calculate implied probabilities with our Implied Probability Calculator.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is matched betting really risk-free?
When executed correctly, yes. The mathematics guarantee profit regardless of the event outcome. The only risks are human error (wrong stakes, wrong bet type, forgetting the lay bet), exchange liquidity issues (cannot get your lay bet matched at the calculated odds), and account restrictions (sportsbook limits your future offers). None of these are inherent to the strategy -- they are execution risks that careful practice eliminates.
How much money do I need to start matched betting?
A minimum of $500-$1,000 is recommended to cover both sportsbook deposits and exchange liabilities for typical welcome offers. With $200-$300, you can still participate but are limited to smaller offers. The more capital you have, the more offers you can run simultaneously and the faster your returns compound.
How long does a typical matched bet take?
An experienced matched bettor can complete a back/lay pair in 5-10 minutes. A complete welcome offer cycle (qualifying bet + free bet conversion) typically takes 15-30 minutes plus waiting time for the qualifying bet to settle. Budget 1-2 hours per week for ongoing reload offers.
What happens if the exchange does not have enough liquidity for my lay bet?
If you cannot get your lay bet matched at acceptable odds, do NOT place the back bet. Wait for liquidity to improve, find a different event with better liquidity, or consider dutching across multiple sportsbooks instead. Use our Sure Bet Calculator to check multi-outcome coverage.
Can sportsbooks ban me for matched betting?
Sportsbooks can restrict your account (reduce bet limits, exclude from promotions) but typically cannot close it entirely for existing balances. "Gubbing" is common for obvious bonus hunters. Spread your activity across many books and mix in normal-looking bets to reduce detection risk.
What is the difference between matched betting and arbitrage betting?
Matched betting specifically uses free bets and bonuses to generate profit. Arbitrage betting (arbing) finds price discrepancies between sportsbooks on the same event to guarantee profit using your own money. Both use the same back/lay principle, but matched betting requires promotional offers while arbing can be done anytime odds diverge sufficiently. Use our Arbitrage Calculator to find arb opportunities.
Do I need to understand sports to do matched betting?
No. Matched betting is purely mathematical. You do not need to predict outcomes -- you cover all outcomes with opposing bets. The sport, teams, and event are irrelevant to your profit calculation. All you need is the back odds, lay odds, and free bet amount.
How does the Kelly Criterion relate to matched betting?
The Kelly Criterion is used for bet sizing when you have an edge but face uncertainty. Since matched betting has no uncertainty (profit is guaranteed), Kelly does not directly apply. However, if you also engage in value betting alongside matched betting, the Kelly Criterion helps you optimize stake sizes for bets with positive expected value but uncertain outcomes. Calculate optimal stakes with our Kelly Criterion Calculator.
Related Tools
Master matched betting with these free calculators:
- Matched Betting Calculator -- Calculate qualifying and free bet stakes
- Free Bet Calculator (SNR) -- Stake Not Returned free bet conversion
- Free Bet Calculator (SR) -- Stake Returned free bet conversion
- Back-Lay Calculator -- Find perfect lay stakes
- Lay Bet Calculator -- Calculate lay bet outcomes
- Betfair Commission Calculator -- See how commission affects profit
- Odds Converter -- Convert between odds formats
- Expected Value Calculator -- Calculate EV for any bet
- Arbitrage Calculator -- Find arbitrage opportunities
- Sure Bet Calculator -- Verify sure bet opportunities
- Dutching Calculator -- Calculate dutching stakes
- Hedge Calculator -- Plan hedge positions
- Hold/Vig Calculator -- Analyze sportsbook margins
- Implied Probability Calculator -- Convert odds to probabilities
- Kelly Criterion Calculator -- Optimize bet sizing
Conclusion
Matched betting is the closest thing to free money in the gambling world. The mathematics are straightforward, the risk is virtually zero when executed properly, and the returns are immediate. Whether you are extracting $50 from a small welcome offer or $500 from a major sportsbook promotion, the process is the same: calculate your stakes, place both bets, and collect your guaranteed profit.
Start with our Matched Betting Calculator to see exactly how much profit you can lock in from your first offer. Use our Free Bet Calculator (SNR) and Free Bet Calculator (SR) to convert every free bet into cash. And use our Back-Lay Calculator to ensure your lay stakes are perfectly calibrated.
The sportsbooks are spending millions on bonuses to attract customers. Matched betting simply ensures that money goes to you.
Gambling involves risk. This content is for educational and informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly, set limits you can afford, and seek help if gambling becomes a problem. Visit the National Council on Problem Gambling or call 1-800-522-4700 for support.
