Keno Odds Calculator: Probability & Payout Analysis (2026)
Keno Odds Calculator: Know Your Real Chances
Keno offers the allure of big payouts from small bets, but the odds tell a different story. Our free calculator reveals exact probabilities for any keno game, helping you understand what you're really up against.
What Is Keno?
Keno is a lottery-style game where you pick numbers (spots) from a pool of 80. The house draws 20 numbers, and you win based on how many of your picks match.
Quick Answer: Keno house edge ranges from 20-40%—one of the worst in any casino. Hitting all 10 numbers in a 10-spot game has odds of about 1 in 8.9 million. The math is brutal, but our calculator shows exactly what you're facing.
How to Use Our Free Keno Calculator
Use the Keno Odds Calculator →
Enter your game parameters to see exact probabilities and payouts.
Step-by-Step Instructions
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Select Spots: How many numbers you're picking
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View Catch Probabilities: Odds for each match level
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Enter Pay Table: Your casino's payouts
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Calculate EV: See expected return
Input Fields Explained
| Field | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Spots Picked | Numbers selected | 8 |
| Numbers Drawn | Casino draws | 20 |
| Pool Size | Total numbers | 80 |
| Catches | Matches needed | 5+ |
| House Edge | Casino advantage | 25% |
Keno Probability Mathematics
The Hypergeometric Distribution
Keno uses hypergeometric probability:
P(catch k) = C(spots,k) × C(80-spots,20-k) / C(80,20)
Where C(n,k) is combinations of n things taken k at a time.
Spot Game Probabilities
4-Spot Game:
| Catch | Probability | Typical Payout |
|---|---|---|
| 4/4 | 0.31% | 120:1 |
| 3/4 | 4.32% | 4:1 |
| 2/4 | 21.26% | 1:1 |
| 1/4 | 43.27% | 0 |
| 0/4 | 30.83% | 0 |
8-Spot Game:
| Catch | Probability | Typical Payout |
|---|---|---|
| 8/8 | 0.0043% | 10,000:1 |
| 7/8 | 0.0326% | 1,500:1 |
| 6/8 | 0.2367% | 100:1 |
| 5/8 | 1.83% | 10:1 |
| 4/8 | 8.15% | 2:1 |
| 3/8 | 21.48% | 0 |
| 2/8 | 32.81% | 0 |
| 1/8 | 26.65% | 0 |
| 0/8 | 8.83% | 0 |
10-Spot Game:
| Catch | Probability |
|---|---|
| 10/10 | 0.000011% (1 in 8.9 million) |
| 9/10 | 0.00061% |
| 8/10 | 0.0135% |
| 7/10 | 0.161% |
| 6/10 | 1.15% |
| 5/10 | 5.14% |
Keno House Edge
Why Keno Is So Expensive
Most casino games have 1-5% house edge. Keno typically runs 20-40%:
| Game | House Edge |
|---|---|
| Blackjack (basic strategy) | 0.5% |
| Roulette (European) | 2.7% |
| Slots (average) | 5-10% |
| Keno | 20-40% |
Pay Table Variations
House edge varies dramatically by casino:
- Casino A: 25% house edge
- Casino B: 35% house edge
- Online: 5-15% (more competitive)
Always check pay tables—huge differences exist.
Real-World Keno Examples
Example 1: 4-Spot Game Analysis
Your picks: 4 numbers Bet: $1 Pay table: 4/4 pays 100:1, 3/4 pays 3:1, 2/4 pays 1:1
Expected value:
- 4/4: 0.31% × $100 = $0.31
- 3/4: 4.32% × $3 = $0.13
- 2/4: 21.26% × $1 = $0.21
- Total EV: $0.65
- House edge: 35%
Example 2: 8-Spot Game Analysis
Your picks: 8 numbers Bet: $2 Progressive jackpot: $50,000 for 8/8
Calculation:
- 8/8 probability: 0.0043%
- Jackpot contribution: 0.0043% × $50,000 = $2.15
- Other prizes: ~$0.85
- Total EV: $3.00 on $2 bet... wait.
Reality check: Most 8/8 payouts are capped, not progressive. Typical return ~$1.50 on $2 bet = 25% house edge.
Example 3: Comparing Spot Games
Question: Is 4-spot or 10-spot better?
Analysis:
- 4-spot: Lower variance, hits more often
- 10-spot: Higher variance, bigger potential payout
- House edge: Similar (depends on pay table)
Neither is mathematically "better"—both have heavy house edge.
Best Keno Strategies
Strategy 1: Find Best Pay Tables
The only real strategy:
- Compare pay tables across venues
- Online often better than live casino
- Video keno usually better than live keno
Strategy 2: Spot Selection
No number selection strategy works:
- All numbers equally likely
- "Hot" and "cold" numbers are meaningless
- Patterns don't affect probability
Strategy 3: Bankroll Management
Since you're playing a -EV game:
- Set strict loss limits
- Play for entertainment value
- Don't chase losses
Strategy 4: Multi-Race Cards
Buying multi-race cards:
- Locks in your numbers
- No mathematical advantage
- Convenience only
Common Keno Myths
"Some Numbers Are Hotter"
Myth: Track which numbers hit recently. Reality: Each draw is independent. Past results don't predict future.
"Consecutive Numbers Never Hit"
Myth: Avoid sequences like 1-2-3-4. Reality: Any combination is equally likely.
"Spread Numbers Across the Board"
Myth: Pick numbers from all areas. Reality: Distribution doesn't affect probability.
"Fewer Spots Is Better"
Myth: 3-spot games have better odds. Reality: House edge is built into all pay tables similarly.
Video Keno vs. Live Keno
Video Keno
| Aspect | Video Keno |
|---|---|
| Speed | Fast (100+ games/hour) |
| House edge | Often lower (15-25%) |
| Min bet | Usually lower |
| Ambiance | Solitary |
Live Keno
| Aspect | Live Keno |
|---|---|
| Speed | Slow (10-15 games/hour) |
| House edge | Often higher (25-40%) |
| Min bet | Usually higher |
| Ambiance | Social, relaxed |
Mathematically: Video keno is usually better. Per hour cost: Live keno costs less due to slower pace.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best numbers to pick in keno?
There are no "best" numbers. Every number has equal probability. Pick your favorites or use quick pick—it doesn't matter mathematically.
How many spots should I play?
Personal preference. More spots = higher variance = bigger potential wins and losses. 4-8 spots are most popular.
Can I improve my keno odds?
Only by finding better pay tables. No number selection or betting system changes the underlying probability.
Why is keno house edge so high?
Keno is designed as casual entertainment, not serious gambling. The high edge subsidizes the relaxed pace and lounge atmosphere.
Is online keno better?
Often yes. Online keno typically has 5-15% house edge versus 25-40% at live casinos. Check specific pay tables.
Should I play multi-race cards?
Convenience only—no mathematical advantage. Useful if you'll be at the casino anyway.
Keno Probability Table
Odds of Catching All Numbers
| Spots | Catch All | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1/1 | 1 in 4 |
| 2 | 2/2 | 1 in 16.6 |
| 3 | 3/3 | 1 in 72.1 |
| 4 | 4/4 | 1 in 326 |
| 5 | 5/5 | 1 in 1,551 |
| 6 | 6/6 | 1 in 7,753 |
| 7 | 7/7 | 1 in 40,979 |
| 8 | 8/8 | 1 in 230,115 |
| 9 | 9/9 | 1 in 1,380,688 |
| 10 | 10/10 | 1 in 8,911,711 |
Pro Tips for Keno Players
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Compare pay tables: Huge variations exist
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Play video keno for better odds: Lower house edge typically
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Set loss limits: Keno is entertainment, not investment
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Understand the math: Know what you're paying for
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Avoid "systems": No strategy beats the house edge
Related Calculators
- Lottery Odds Calculator - Lottery probability
- Lottery EV Calculator - Expected value analysis
- Probability Calculator - General probability
- Bingo Calculator - Similar game odds
- Gambling Bankroll Calculator - Budget management
Conclusion
Keno's colorful boards and big potential payouts hide one of gambling's worst house edges. Our calculator shows exact probabilities for any keno game, revealing the true cost of playing. If you enjoy keno's relaxed pace and lottery-style excitement, budget accordingly—just don't expect to beat the math.
Calculate Your Keno Odds Now →
Play keno for entertainment if you enjoy it, but know what you're paying. With 25-40% house edge, every dollar bet costs you 25-40 cents on average. The calculator doesn't lie—but neither does it stop you from having fun responsibly.
