Fire Bet Craps Calculator: Chasing the All-Point Jackpot

The Fire Bet in craps pays when a shooter hits multiple unique points before sevening out—with the ultimate jackpot requiring all six points (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10). Our calculator reveals why this exciting progressive bet carries a brutal 20%+ house edge.

What Is the Fire Bet?

The Fire Bet is a bonus wager made before a shooter's first roll. You win if the shooter makes multiple unique point numbers before sevening out. Hitting 4 points starts paying, 5 points pays more, and hitting all 6 unique points triggers the jackpot—typically 1000:1 or a progressive amount.

Quick Answer: Fire Bet = shooter must hit multiple unique points. 4 points: 25:1. 5 points: 250:1. 6 points: 1000:1 (or progressive). Must be different numbers. House edge: 20-25%. Very rare jackpot. Entertainment only. Small bet, big dream.

How to Use Our Calculator

Use the Fire Bet Calculator →

Calculate fire bet probabilities and expected value.

Step-by-Step Instructions

1. Enter Bet Amount: Typically $1-$5

2. View Point Probabilities: Each tier odds

3. Check Payouts: 4, 5, and 6 points

4. Calculate House Edge: True cost

5. Understand Reality: Behind the jackpot

Input Fields Explained

Field	Description	Example
Bet Amount	Your wager	$5
4-Point Prob	Hitting 4	~2.5%
5-Point Prob	Hitting 5	~0.16%
6-Point Prob	All six	~0.016%
6-Point Payout	Jackpot	1000:1
House Edge	True cost	~24%

How Fire Bet Works

The Requirements

Fire bet mechanics:

1. Bet before shooter's first roll
2. Shooter must establish and make points
3. Each unique point counts once
4. Continue until shooter 7s out

Unique points:
4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 (six possible)

Making 6-4-6-8 = 3 unique points
(6 counts once even if hit twice)

Payout Structure

Standard Fire Bet payouts:

3 unique points: Nothing (some pay 8:1)
4 unique points: 25:1
5 unique points: 250:1
6 unique points: 1000:1

Some casinos offer:
Progressive jackpot for 6 points
Higher variance, bigger potential

Progressive Variation

Progressive fire bet:

Small portion goes to jackpot
6 points hits progressive
Can grow to $10,000+
Resets after jackpot hit

Same terrible base odds
Just bigger rare payout

Probability Analysis

Making Points

Point-making probabilities:

Point 4: 33.33% to make
Point 5: 40.00% to make
Point 6: 45.45% to make
Point 8: 45.45% to make
Point 9: 40.00% to make
Point 10: 33.33% to make

And need to hit MULTIPLE
While avoiding 7-out

Fire Bet Probabilities

Approximate odds:

4 unique points: ~2.5% (1 in 40)
5 unique points: ~0.16% (1 in 625)
6 unique points: ~0.016% (1 in 6,250)

These are rough estimates
Actual depends on path
Monte Carlo simulations vary

The Path Problem

Why it's so hard:

Need point → make it → repeat
Each point: ~40% average to make
Then need DIFFERENT point
Shooter can 7-out anytime

6 points requires:
Establishing 6 different numbers
Making all 6 before 7-out
Extremely rare event

House Edge Analysis

Standard Pay Table

4/5/6 point payouts:

Expected return: ~76%
House edge: ~24%

Breakdown:
Most hands: Lose (no 4 points)
Rare 4-point: 25:1
Very rare 5-point: 250:1
Almost never 6-point: 1000:1

Why Edge Is High

The math reality:

Probability of losing: ~97.5%
Probability of 4 points: ~2.5%
Much less for 5 and 6

Payouts don't compensate
25:1 for 2.5% = negative EV
1000:1 for 0.016% = very negative

Comparison to Other Bets

House edge comparison:

Pass line: 1.41%
Place 6/8: 1.52%
Field: 2.78-5.56%
Any Seven: 16.67%
Fire Bet: ~24%

Among worst craps bets
Only Lucky Ladies worse

Real-World Examples

Example 1: Quick Loss

Most common result:

Bet: $5 Fire Bet
Shooter's roll: 8 (point)
Next roll: 7 (seven out!)

Result: LOSE $5

Made 1 point, need 4 minimum
~97.5% of fire bets lose

Example 2: Close Call

Three points:

Bet: $5 Fire Bet
Shooter makes: 6, 8, 5
Then: 7 out

Result: LOSE $5 (need 4)

Exciting but no payout
Some tables pay at 3 points

Example 3: Four Points

First tier win:

Bet: $5 Fire Bet
Shooter makes: 4, 6, 8, 10
Then: 7 out

Result: WIN $125 (25:1)

~2.5% probability
Nice win when hit

Example 4: The Dream

All six points:

Bet: $5 Fire Bet
Shooter makes: 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
Before 7-out!

Result: WIN $5,000 (1000:1)

~0.016% probability
1 in 6,250 shooters
Lifetime experience

Strategy Considerations

Bet Sizing

Smart fire bet approach:

$1-$5 maximum
Entertainment expense only
Never chase losses
Treat like lottery ticket

Session Impact

10 shooters, $5 fire bet each:

Cost: $50 at risk
Expected loss: $12 (24%)
Expected wins: Usually 0

Maybe one 4-point win
Covers nothing long-term

When to Skip

Don't bet fire when:

Bankroll is limited
You need to win
Playing seriously
Math matters to you

Common Mistakes

1. Betting Too Much

Mistake: $10-25 per shooter Problem: 24% edge compounds fast Fix: $1-5 maximum

2. Expecting Hits

Mistake: "Due for a fire" Problem: Each shooter independent Fix: Accept rarity

3. Confusing Unique Points

Mistake: Thinking repeat points count Problem: 6-6-6-8 = 2 unique points Fix: Different numbers only

4. Ignoring House Edge

Mistake: Focusing on jackpot size Problem: 24% edge is brutal Fix: Understand true cost

Frequently Asked Questions

How rare is hitting 6 points?

About 1 in 6,250 shooters (0.016%). You could play for years and never see it.

Do repeat points count?

No. Making 8 three times still counts as one unique point. Need six different numbers.

Is the fire bet worth it?

For entertainment with $1-5, maybe. For serious gambling, absolutely not. 24% edge is terrible.

What's the house edge?

Approximately 20-25% depending on exact pay table. Among the worst bets in craps.

Can I bet fire after the point?

Usually no. Fire bets must be placed before shooter's first come-out roll.

Do all casinos have fire bets?

No. It's a newer addition. Many traditional casinos don't offer it.

Pro Tips

• $1-$5 max: Entertainment budget only

• 24% edge: Among worst craps bets

• Unique points: Repeats don't count

• 6 points = 1 in 6,250: Extremely rare

• Lottery mentality: Small bet, big dream

Related Calculators

• Craps Odds Calculator - Main game
• Pass Line Calculator - Better bet
• Proposition Bets Calculator - Compare
• House Edge Calculator - Compare games
• Probability Calculator - Compound odds

Conclusion

The Fire Bet offers craps' ultimate dream—a 1000:1 jackpot for hitting all six unique points. Our calculator reveals why the ~0.016% probability and 24% house edge make this pure entertainment, not strategy. A $5 bet is reasonable; a $25 bet is foolish.

Calculate Fire Bet Odds Now →

That 1000:1 jackpot requires hitting all 6 points before 7-out—about 1 in 6,250 shooters. Our calculator shows why fire bets should be measured in single dollars, not serious bankroll.