Paroli Calculator: Ride the Winning Streaks

The Paroli system doubles bets after wins, not losses—the opposite of Martingale. After three consecutive wins, you pocket the profit and reset. Our calculator reveals why this positive progression limits losses while capturing occasional streak profits.

What Is the Paroli System?

The Paroli (or anti-Martingale) is a positive progression where you double your bet after each win, returning to base after any loss or after three consecutive wins. The goal is capturing winning streaks while limiting exposure during losing periods.

Quick Answer: Paroli = double bet after each WIN (not loss). Base: 1 unit. Win → 2 units. Win again → 4 units. Third win → pocket 7 units profit, reset. ANY loss → reset to base. Limited risk (only 1 unit at stake). Chases small streaks. Same house edge. Lower variance than Martingale.

How to Use Our Calculator

Use the Paroli Calculator →

Calculate Paroli progression and expected outcomes.

Step-by-Step Instructions

1. Enter Base Unit: Starting bet

2. Track Wins/Losses: Sequence input

3. View Current Bet: Next wager

4. Check Streak Status: Wins in sequence

5. Calculate Session: Net result

Input Fields Explained

Field	Description	Example
Base Unit	Starting bet	$10
Current Streak	Wins in row	2
Current Bet	Next wager	$40
Session Profit	Running total	+$30
Streak Target	Wins before reset	3

How Paroli Works

The Basic Progression

Paroli sequence:

Start: 1 unit ($10)
Win 1: Bet 2 units ($20)
Win 2: Bet 4 units ($40)
Win 3: STOP, pocket profit, reset

Total won: 10 + 20 + 40 = $70
Total risked: Only initial $10

ANY loss at any point: Reset to $10

The Loss Limiter

Key advantage:

Martingale: Each loss increases risk
Paroli: Each loss = 1 unit only

Lose on $10: Down $10, bet $10
Lose on $20: Down $10 (profit lost, not bankroll)
Lose on $40: Down $10 (streak profit lost)

Never chase losses with bigger bets

Why Three Wins?

The 3-win target:

Probability of 3 wins: ~11.5% (roulette)
Profit when hit: 7 units
Loss when miss: 1 unit

Risk/reward:
Risk 1 unit to gain 7
Need 1 success per 7 attempts
Probability: 11.5% = 1 in 8.7

Close but still negative EV

Probability Analysis

Streak Probabilities

Consecutive win chances (48.65%):

1 win: 48.65%
2 wins: 23.67%
3 wins: 11.52%
4 wins: 5.60%
5 wins: 2.73%

Streaks happen but not often
11.52% = 3-win target

Expected Value Breakdown

Per betting cycle:

Win 3 in a row (11.52%): +7 units
Lose on 1st (51.35%): -1 unit
Lose on 2nd (48.65% × 51.35% = 24.98%): -1 unit
Lose on 3rd (23.67% × 51.35% = 12.16%): -1 unit

EV = (0.1152 × 7) + (0.5135 × -1) +
     (0.2498 × -1) + (0.1216 × -1)
EV = 0.806 - 0.885 = -0.079 units

Same house edge, different delivery

Variance Comparison

Paroli vs Martingale variance:

Paroli:
Many small losses (-1 unit)
Occasional nice wins (+7 units)

Martingale:
Many small wins (+1 unit)
Occasional devastating losses (-127 units)

Paroli = lower variance
Easier on the nerves
Same expected loss

Real-World Examples

Example 1: Successful Streak

Three-win completion:

$10 base

Bet $10, WIN: +$10, streak 1
Bet $20, WIN: +$30, streak 2
Bet $40, WIN: +$70, streak 3

RESET - pocket profit
Net: +$70 (7 units)

Captured winning streak perfectly

Example 2: Early Loss

Most common outcome:

$10 base

Bet $10, LOSE: -$10

RESET
Net: -$10 (1 unit)

51.35% of attempts end here
Low loss, try again

Example 3: Mid-Streak Loss

Profit returned:

$10 base

Bet $10, WIN: +$10
Bet $20, WIN: +$30
Bet $40, LOSE: -$10

RESET
Net: -$10 (1 unit)

Won $30, lost $40
Net loss: $10 (just base unit)

Example 4: Session Analysis

20 attempts at roulette:

$10 base, 20 Paroli cycles

Expected results:
~2 complete streaks (11.52%): +$140
~18 incomplete: -$180

Net expected: -$40

Same as flat betting $10 × 20 × 2.7%
= -$5.40 per spin average

Strategy Considerations

Why Paroli Appeals

Psychological benefits:

Small, consistent losses
Occasional profit spikes
Never chasing losses
Clear reset triggers

Feels more "winnable"
Same math, better experience

Bankroll Requirements

Paroli bankroll:

Very reasonable needs
10-20 base units sufficient
$10 unit = $100-200 bankroll

Can survive many failed streaks
Only risking 1 unit each time

Modification Options

Paroli variations:

2-win target: More frequent, smaller (+3 units)
4-win target: Rarer, larger (+15 units)
5-win target: Very rare (+31 units)

All have same edge
Different variance profiles

Common Mistakes

1. Continuing Past Target

Mistake: "I'm hot, keep doubling" Problem: One loss erases everything Fix: Stick to 3-win limit

2. Increasing After Loss

Mistake: Martingale habits Problem: That's not Paroli Fix: Reset to base after every loss

3. Expecting Edge Elimination

Mistake: "Positive progression beats house" Problem: No system beats edge Fix: Use for entertainment, not profit

4. Wrong Base Unit

Mistake: $100 base with $500 bankroll Problem: Only 5 attempts before broke Fix: Base = 1/20+ of bankroll

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Paroli safer than Martingale?

Yes for variance. Maximum loss is 1 unit per attempt. Martingale can lose 127+ units on a streak. Same expected value long-term.

Does Paroli beat the house edge?

No. The 11.52% chance of 7-unit win doesn't offset the 88.48% chance of 1-unit loss. Math still favors the house.

Why stop at 3 wins?

4+ win streaks are increasingly rare. 3 wins is achievable (11.52%) while providing meaningful profit (7 units).

Can I use Paroli on any game?

Works on any even-money bet. Roulette red/black, craps pass line, baccarat banker—all applicable.

What about 4 or 5 win targets?

Possible but rare. 4 wins = 5.6%, +15 units. 5 wins = 2.7%, +31 units. Higher risk of never completing.

Is Paroli the best positive progression?

One of the simplest. Others (Parlay, 1-3-2-6) exist with similar properties. None beat the house edge.

Pro Tips

• Double on wins only: Never after losses

• 3-win cap: Take profit, reset

• 1-unit max risk: Per attempt

• Lower variance: Than negative progressions

• Same house edge: Entertainment only

Related Calculators

• Martingale Calculator - Opposite approach
• D'Alembert Calculator - Gentler system
• Roulette Odds Calculator - Base game
• Expected Value Calculator - True EV
• Bankroll Calculator - Risk management

Conclusion

The Paroli system offers the most psychologically comfortable progression—small losses when streaks fail, satisfying wins when three in a row hits. Our calculator shows the 11.52% probability of completing a cycle, the 7-unit payoff, and why this positive approach can't overcome the mathematical house edge.

Calculate Paroli Betting Now →

Win three in a row and pocket $70 from a $10 base. Lose anywhere along the way and you're only down $10. Our calculator proves Paroli limits damage while chasing streak profits—just don't expect to beat the house.