Prop Bet Calculator: Master Player and Game Propositions

Prop bets let you wager on specific player performances and game events beyond the final score. Our calculator analyzes prop odds, calculates payouts, and helps you find value in the massive prop betting market.

What Are Prop Bets?

Proposition bets (props) are wagers on specific occurrences within a game—player statistics, team milestones, or game events—independent of the final outcome.

Quick Answer: Props are over/under bets on specific outcomes: "Patrick Mahomes over 285.5 passing yards" or "First touchdown scorer." Standard juice is -110 both ways, but props often have inefficient lines due to less market attention. Sharp prop bettors find edges books miss.

How to Use Our Prop Bet Calculator

Use the Prop Bet Calculator →

Enter prop details to see payouts and analyze value.

Step-by-Step Instructions

1. Select Prop Type: Player stat, game prop, etc.

2. Enter the Line: Over/under number

3. Input the Odds: Usually -110 to -130

4. Enter Bet Amount: Your wager

5. View Analysis: Payout and implied probability

Input Fields Explained

Field	Description	Example
Prop Type	Category	Passing yards
Line	Over/under number	285.5
Selection	Over or Under	Over
Odds	Juice	-115
Bet Amount	Wager	$100
Payout	Total return	$186.96

Types of Prop Bets

Player Props

Sport	Common Props
NFL	Passing/rushing/receiving yards, TDs
NBA	Points, rebounds, assists, 3-pointers
MLB	Hits, strikeouts, home runs
NHL	Goals, assists, shots, saves

Game Props

Type	Examples
First to score	First TD scorer, first basket
Scoring props	First half total, team total
Method props	Will there be OT, margin of victory
Occurrence	Will X happen, Yes/No

Exotic Props

Type	Examples
Super Bowl	Coin toss, anthem length
Awards	MVP, season leader
Draft	Pick order, team selections

Prop Betting Math

Standard Over/Under

Most props are -110 both ways:

Bet	Amount	Win	Return
Over -110	$110	$100	$210
Under -110	$110	$100	$210

Adjusted Juice

When lines favor one side:

Line	Over	Under
Balanced	-110	-110
Over heavy	-120	+100
Under heavy	+100	-120

First Scorer Props

These pay plus money based on probability:

Player	Odds	Implied %
Star RB	+350	22.2%
WR1	+550	15.4%
TE	+900	10.0%
Kicker	+1200	7.7%

Finding Value in Props

Why Props Have More Value

Reason	Explanation
Less attention	Books focus on main lines
Correlated factors	Books miss connections
News-driven	Injury/lineup info
Model edges	Public lacks analysis

Research Factors

Sport	Key Research
NFL	Snap counts, target share, game script
NBA	Minutes projection, pace, usage rate
MLB	Lineup position, pitcher matchup, park
NHL	Line combinations, power play time

Line Shopping Props

Book	Same Prop	Difference
Book A	Over 24.5 -110
Book B	Over 25.5 -110	1 point worse
Book C	Over 24.5 -105	Better juice

Line shopping matters even more for props than spreads.

Sport-Specific Prop Strategies

NFL Player Props

Prop Type	Key Factors
Passing yards	Game script, opponent pass D, weather
Rushing yards	Game script, box count, opponent run D
Receiving yards	Target share, coverage, slot/outside
Touchdowns	Red zone opportunities, goal line role

NBA Player Props

Prop Type	Key Factors
Points	Usage, pace, opponent defense
Rebounds	Position, pace, team rebounding
Assists	Role, pace, teammates' shooting
3-pointers	Attempts, defense, rest

MLB Player Props

Prop Type	Key Factors
Hits	Lineup spot, pitcher, ballpark
Strikeouts (pitcher)	K rate, opponent, game script
Home runs	Power, park factor, pitcher

Real-World Examples

Example 1: NBA Points Over

Prop: Jayson Tatum over 28.5 points (-110) Research:

• Season average: 27.2 PPG
• vs this opponent: 31.3 PPG (3 games)
• Opponent allows 5th most points to SF
• Fast pace matchup

Analysis: Historical + matchup suggests over value

Example 2: NFL Rushing Under

Prop: RB under 72.5 yards (-115) Research:

• Season average: 68 YPG
• Opponent: #2 run defense
• Team implied total: 19.5 (low scoring)
• Expected negative game script

Analysis: Multiple factors point to under

Example 3: MLB Strikeouts

Prop: Pitcher over 6.5 strikeouts (-105) Research:

• Season K/9: 10.2
• vs this lineup: 32% K rate
• Last 5 starts: 7, 8, 6, 9, 7 strikeouts

Analysis: High K rate + weak opponent = over value

Correlation in Props

Positive Correlations

If X Happens	Y Is More Likely
QB high passing yards	WR high receiving yards
Game goes over	RBs more rushing TDs
Blowout develops	Starters sit (unders)

Using Correlation

Same Game Parlays (SGP): Correlated props in SGPs can offer value IF the book doesn't fully adjust.

Example:

• QB over passing yards
• WR1 over receiving yards
• (Positively correlated—both benefit from same game script)

Negative Correlations

If X Happens	Y Is Less Likely
RB high rushing	QB lower passing
One WR dominates	Other WR lower
Game under	Individual overs harder

Common Prop Mistakes

1. Ignoring Correlation

Mistake: Betting both RB yards and QB yards over Problem: Negatively correlated Fix: Consider game script effects

2. Chasing Trends

Mistake: "He's hit over 4 straight games" Problem: Past performance ≠ future Fix: Analyze why, not just what happened

3. Bad Line Shopping

Mistake: Taking first line seen Problem: Props vary wildly across books Fix: Check 3-5 books minimum

4. Ignoring Game Context

Mistake: Looking at season averages only Problem: This game may be different Fix: Factor in matchup, game script, injuries

Frequently Asked Questions

Are props easier to beat than spreads?

Different, not easier. Less market efficiency means more value opportunities, but also requires more research.

Should I parlay props?

Single bets have better EV. Parlays add house edge. Only parlay if you've identified correlated value.

How much do props lines move?

Less than spreads typically. Sharp money is less focused on props, so lines can stay inefficient longer.

What's the best sport for prop betting?

NBA has the most data and consistent player roles. NFL has more variance but also more inefficiency.

How do I track prop results?

Spreadsheet with: prop type, line, odds, result, closing line. Track by category to find edges.

Do books limit prop bettors?

Yes, sometimes faster than main market bettors. Consistent prop winners get limited.

Building a Prop Model

Basic Framework

1. Baseline: Player's season/recent average
2. Matchup: Opponent strength at that stat
3. Game script: Expected flow (blowout, close, etc.)
4. Context: Home/away, rest, motivation
5. Compare: Your projection vs. line

Example Model Output

Factor	Weight	Player Projection
Season avg	40%	26 points
Last 10	20%	28 points
vs opponent	20%	30 points
Game script	20%	25 points
Final		27 points

If line is 24.5, over has value. If line is 29.5, under has value.

Pro Tips

• Specialize: Focus on one sport/prop type to develop edge

• Line shop religiously: Prop lines vary 1-3 points across books

• Track closing lines: Did you beat the close? That's your edge

• Consider correlation: Props don't exist in isolation

• News matters: Injury/lineup info moves props significantly

Related Calculators

• Parlay Calculator - Combine props
• Expected Value Calculator - Analyze value
• Odds Converter - Format conversion
• Over/Under Calculator - Totals betting
• Kelly Criterion Calculator - Bet sizing

Conclusion

Prop bets offer unique opportunities because markets are less efficient than main lines. Our calculator shows payouts and implied probabilities for any prop. Success requires sport-specific research, understanding correlation, and aggressive line shopping.

Calculate Your Prop Bets Now →

The best prop bettors specialize deeply—knowing one sport's props inside and out beats spreading attention across many markets. Research, model, compare to lines, and find your edge.